When do 11,000,000 short shares go Nuke?

[jft310]

I added a few more Long calls. Do your own DD.

[admin]

["They have made 5 times as much money on the constant churn over the years than they would lose if IOC ever does a deal and PPS goes up $40."]

Based on what exactly? In fact, the only data that's available suggests quite something else, that despite a doubling of the short count, the price has, if anything, gone up slightly. How this is profitable isn't at all clear, at least not to me.

[Tree]

It is a lot simpler than some grand conspiracy. How about it's as simple as there are plenty of IOC retailers and likely smaller institutions that really have no clue or are unable or unwilling to keep up with the large pic? We see this knowledge gap on all MBs and that is easily understandable.
Volatility has the perfect breeding ground as IOC is :
1) operating in an isolated country
2) has SM's working to undermine them
3) in the process of doing what has been impossible to date - a minor pulling an LNG project together

The facts is volatility has no correlation to fundamentals or SD process status.
Likely all has to do with easily spooked shareholders and traders.

[trans]

Well, You're exactly right, volatility has no correlation to fundamentals or SD process. That's the point I'm trying to get across, and I'm not easily spooked, but am realistic. Yes, I'm not sure this situation has been well thought out on how to be handled.....on our side and I stand on that with lots of experience.

[admin]

I don't think anyone is questioning your experience, Trans. I'm just saying that with all the uncertainty still in the stock, even a doubling of the short count hasn't managed to keep it down, let alone lower it. That doesn't suggest a position of strength to me

[Getitrt2]

I don't think anyone is questioning your experience, Trans. I'm just saying that with all the uncertainty still in the stock, even a doubling of the short count hasn't managed to keep it down, let alone lower it. That doesn't suggest a position of strength to me

I understand the long-term view.  However, go look at the recent chart and what's going on today, and tell me they are not in a position of strength at least in the short term.

[bertl05]

The crossover isnt usually a good thing for IOC PPS. Historically it portends substantial declines

[ellerslick]

The crossover isnt usually a good thing for IOC PPS. Historically it portends substantial declines

Last fall it went from high 80's to low 50's in silence. It will go from 77 to whatever in silence.  This trading does have consequences in that people will shed a casino stock after a pop.  If there is a short strategy it would be to get it as low as possible before news and then scare the longs out as quickly as you can or short the spike to control the rise.  If I see this played out in the future I wouldn't be surprised.  And it could effect my short term and long term rate of return.

[ltinvest]

What I see is algo's at work. Programmed trading is the same pattern that's existed for a few weeks (years if you want to analyze different periods). The only difference is no one is there right now buying to pick up the slack. I see this as trading related only and not based on any news or changed expectations by investors. If institutional money was put to work on the long side, it would mute the programmed trading on the other side. All IMHO of course.

[Getitrt2]

["They have made 5 times as much money on the constant churn over the years than they would lose if IOC ever does a deal and PPS goes up $40."] Based on what exactly? In fact, the only data that's available suggests quite something else, that despite a doubling of the short count, the price has, if anything, gone up slightly. How this is profitable isn't at all clear, at least not to me.

If it is true, admin, it's because they have manipulated a lot of the ups and downs, and been able to take more advantage of them knowing what was coming.  They have been misleading investors, stealing from shareholders, and damaging market credibility and the market function of allocation of capital.  There is no way the SEC should not be investigating this stock and the shorts involved.