SIGH.....Not as much fun

[geologydude]

Safely on auto pilot? 99 problems could abort takeoff between now and FID in 2 years. Auto pilot may never arrive.

Enough already, Mike...we know you feel IOC should be sold.  How about you change your moniker to "mutualfundmike"?

[Tree]

Safely on auto pilot? 99 problems could abort takeoff between now and FID in 2 years. Auto pilot may never arrive.

Yes Mike, safely on auto-pilot.

PRL15 transactions proved the successful take0ff.

There is miniscule risk while in flight.

Now there are 1,342,000,000 reasons why PRL 15 Antelope Gulf LNG will have a safe flight and landing.

TOT paid IOC $ 401,000,000  ($10,000,000/1% PRL15 stake).

IOC paid IPI $41,000,000  ($40,000,000/1% PRL15 stake).

OSH paid PAC LNG $900,000,000  ($25,000,000/1% PRL 15 stake).

What do you think are the chances are that $1,342,000,000 transactions won't be followed through with an LNG project?

Not my problem if you do not or cannot identify reality.

Anyone else think we have long since jumped the shark with too many posters on SHU??

[jft310]

The major leg up Interoil has is someone who has done all this before and they have a process. Anyone who discounts Total as a partner needs to sell and go away. Or not very realistic!

[mikesioc]

You all crack me up. I'm not doubting Total and OSH are sincere about pursuing the LNG project and I do hope all the wildest expectations come true but not counting on it. Certainly not ready to pop an ambien and wait for 2020 on auto pilot. Did we add $529 million reasons for success today or $1? The true measure of success. $10/sh in cash added to the balance sheet and hardly a hiccup. All the buyers must be in the Hamptons already. Let's hope WBR drilling news yields better results, then re-certification, etc. and the market responds considerably more favorably. I did see Jaws at the midnight movie the other night but no jumping sharks. A great 4th to all my IOC brethren! Go USA! Go Hession! Go IOC! I won't even think about the dreaded "B" word all week. Maybe a little research on some mutual funds or ETF's though. I heard there are some really good ones. I may even fill a glass half full and listen to some Bob Marley. Don't worry, every little thing gonna be all right! Oh ya!

[Li'loilady]

Hey Mike.  While I may not generally share your perspective on our stock, by the time I got down to your, "I may even fill a glass half full," you had me cracking up out loud.  Thanks for your (only mildly sarcastic ;~}) humor.  And a great 4th to you and yours as well, sir.

[jft310]

If one studies the markets they see Wall Street rewards closed deals more than announced deals . Especially with Interoil which still has the Phil Speak hangover effect. And The New Head of the Silence Mafia M. Hession.

Looking ahead
Close to a Billion on the balance sheet
A P/E in the low single digits.
Last 3 wells all were successful
Volatile, low margin part of the business model sold off.
A committed Super Major working towards FID on Antelope LNG
Possible new finds which means more deals with what 8 new wells??
Experienced LNG team focused mgt team in place
New focus on the investment community that lives and breathes LNG ,the SE Asia world. (Singapore IR base now)
Less focus on the NYC HFT trading crowd.
Trading at a 65% discount per the largest Australian bank Macquarie.
Lots of reasons to smile looking forward.

[Tree]

You all crack me up. I'm not doubting Total and OSH are sincere about pursuing the LNG project and I do hope all the wildest expectations come true but not counting on it.

If this is sincere, you've concluded IOC is a short.  Good luck with that and it explains your posting history.

Events since last fall overwhelm your position IMO.

You all crack me up. I'm not doubting Total and OSH are sincere about pursuing the LNG project and I do hope all the wildest expectations come true but not counting on it.

[jft310]

Mike
Take a sec and list the top 3-5 wildest expectations as you view them!!!. Lets talk about them.
Hope you realize that Interoil has a contract with Total and the GCA estimate is the floor and that estimate has been booked to Interoil's books already. That gives them to cash to build the LNG plant.
But what do you perceive are wild expectations???. Hession is no Phil.

[Palm]

You all crack me up. I'm not doubting Total and OSH are sincere about pursuing the LNG project and I do hope all the wildest expectations come true but not counting on it. Certainly not ready to pop an ambien and wait for 2020 on auto pilot. Did we add $529 million reasons for success today or $1? The true measure of success. $10/sh in cash added to the balance sheet and hardly a hiccup. All the buyers must be in the Hamptons already. Let's hope WBR drilling news yields better results, then re-certification, etc. and the market responds considerably more favorably. I did see Jaws at the midnight movie the other night but no jumping sharks. A great 4th to all my IOC brethren! Go USA! Go Hession! Go IOC! I won't even think about the dreaded "B" word all week. Maybe a little research on some mutual funds or ETF's though. I heard there are some really good ones. I may even fill a glass half full and listen to some Bob Marley. Don't worry, every little thing gonna be all right! Oh ya!

If there was anything that was valued close to actual in the pps (not the balance sheet as it would be there as cost less Accum Depr), it was the refinery.  Analysts have said (and one repeated yesterday) that the refinery/downstream is anything but the core function of IOC but it had an approx. pps value of $10.  RJ seems to feel the $525 million was possibly a bit of a premium on what they felt it was worth.  So if the refinery/downstream was in the pps at around $10 and it's sold for cash, all you are doing is swapping equally valued assets; cash for the refinery/downstream.  You don't assume selling something valued at approx. $10/share for that value should add $10 to pps.  That refinery and downstream is pretty easy to value as it's a known as far as what it produces; very easy.  We ended up with a little pop in pps; maybe that reflects some sort of premium on what it was valued at.  But we should not have expected a $10 pop unless there was $0 value in pps when it was sold.

If anything is undervalued in pps it's what now remains.  We know that EA, Tri and the prospects are undervalued, but as things are proven up pps will rise.  We know that the possible 30% share of a planned LNG plant as well as CSPs etc. are given no value right now, but as plans are executed (things MH's bonuses are tied to), pps will rise.  Etc,, etc, etc.

IMHO to make the statement that pps should have jumped by $10 is way off base.

[Getitrt2]

You all crack me up. I'm not doubting Total and OSH are sincere about pursuing the LNG project and I do hope all the wildest expectations come true but not counting on it. Certainly not ready to pop an ambien and wait for 2020 on auto pilot. Did we add $529 million reasons for success today or $1? The true measure of success. $10/sh in cash added to the balance sheet and hardly a hiccup. All the buyers must be in the Hamptons already. Let's hope WBR drilling news yields better results, then re-certification, etc. and the market responds considerably more favorably. I did see Jaws at the midnight movie the other night but no jumping sharks. A great 4th to all my IOC brethren! Go USA! Go Hession! Go IOC! I won't even think about the dreaded "B" word all week. Maybe a little research on some mutual funds or ETF's though. I heard there are some really good ones. I may even fill a glass half full and listen to some Bob Marley. Don't worry, every little thing gonna be all right! Oh ya!

Mike, I really don't think you should be investing in individual stocks, unless it''s more conservative stocks for dividends.  I think there are serious questions about having the aptitude or psychology for it, although you do at least have a little commendable humor left.  I can understand why you would be dreaming about a buyout above $100 sometime soon, but I really think the probability of that is very small, with any attempt rejected.  I would suggest if you can't stand to sell now, you take the opportunity to do so with any bump from well results, and invest in mutual funds.  I think you would remove a lot of negativity and stress from your life and get better results and be happier, and even improve our lives a little in some of those respects as well.