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'jft310' pid='45949' datel Wrote:
'admin' pid='45942' dateline='<a href="tel:1404133 Wrote:["Go back and look STP PET estimated 2 wells at 80 percent and Wahoo at 90 percent. Thus my comment."] Yes, those were the odds for individual wells (which not everybody agreed with) And what do you have to do with these to get the collective 3 well chances.. Might want to consult statistics101 before answering...
STP please add 80, 80 and 90 and what is the range of estimates 80-90 percent . Geez STP you are in deep with that comment
Like I said, if you would have read statistics 101 you might have found out that the correct answer is 0.8x0.8x0.9. You don't add them up, you multiply, but perhaps you want to rewrite those textbooks..
If I want to be kind one cold argue to add a fraction for some serial correlation (discoveries have some habit of clustering), but that's about it.
Also keep in mind that our CEO, whose every utterance you seem to have memorized, put the chances at 0.1, as did Indoreservoir, based on some impressive sources.
Let's keep this thing real, JFT..
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IOC, so far as I know, has never released estimates of chance of success for the wells. Hession, managing expectations, did remind us that the overall success rate, world wide, for an exploration well is 0.1.
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'Thylacine-2' pid='45956' datel Wrote:IOC, so far as I know, has never released estimates of chance of success for the wells. Hession, managing expectations, did remind us that the overall success rate, world wide, for an exploration well is 0.1.
Yes, I'm aware of that, but he did mention that for a reason, which seems to be to eliminate the idea that these are slam dunks, individually, let alone collectively.
Lets solve these drilling problems first..
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Funny watching what is considered 1-10 proposition via Hession comments is all anyone recalls. He has done a masterful job setting expectations. However, when the entire quote is used in its proper context perhaps it sheds a different light on the topic. Hession's words, not mine from May CC.
Now, of course, we would like every exploration well to come in. But as we push into new and more frontier areas in our licenses, that is statistically improbable. The typical strike rate for a global exploration is about one success for every 10 wells. In the Gulf region, which is underexplored, we have a strong success rate having found gas with three of the seven wells we have drilled.
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'Libtardius Maximus' pid='45966' datel Wrote:Funny watching what is considered 1-10 proposition via Hession comments is all anyone recalls. He has done a masterful job setting expectations. However, when the entire quote is used in its proper context perhaps it sheds a different light on the topic. Hession's words, not mine from May CC. Now, of course, we would like every exploration well to come in. But as we push into new and more frontier areas in our licenses, that is statistically improbable. The typical strike rate for a global exploration is about one success for every 10 wells. In the Gulf region, which is underexplored, we have a strong success rate having found gas with three of the seven wells we have drilled.
That's a useful reminder Lib. In any case, small sample numbers can significantly deviate from large sample statistic.
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07-01-2014, 05:08 AM
(This post was last modified: 07-01-2014, 08:44 AM by Getitrt2.)
(07-01-2014, 12:34 AM)Libtardius Maximus Wrote: Funny watching what is considered 1-10 proposition via Hession comments is all anyone recalls. He has done a masterful job setting expectations. However, when the entire quote is used in its proper context perhaps it sheds a different light on the topic. Hession's words, not mine from May CC. Now, of course, we would like every exploration well to come in. But as we push into new and more frontier areas in our licenses, that is statistically improbable. The typical strike rate for a global exploration is about one success for every 10 wells. In the Gulf region, which is underexplored, we have a strong success rate having found gas with three of the seven wells we have drilled.
Excellent and appropriate response, LIB. Hession has also made such comments as, you find gas where you've already found gas, and, these are all multi-Tcf prospects. Anyone who thinks his 1 in 10 comments about global success rates are intended as serious predictions of IOC's success rate in its leases, as opposed to attempts to keep expectations from getting too high (partly from his own past comments), is totally misinterpreting him, IMHO. Perhaps it would be appropriate to point out that, based on proper statistical calculations as I understand/recall them, a 1 in 10 probability for each well would mean only a 30% probability of just one well being successful, and that there would be only a one in 1,000 probability of all three being successful. I feel sure the probabilities IOC is dealing with here with these three wells are better than that.
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