T/A Update

[Gator]

If you believe in Elliot Wave theory then the following article is very frightening. http://www.avidchartist.com/2014/10/s-50...plete.html

The lowest recorded PE ratio for the S&P 500 was 5.31 in Dec 1917.  If the SPX falls to 600, the PE ratio would be below 5 with a dividend yield of 6.25%

[admin]

Well, 600 or Elliot wave, I dunno, but the sell-off in small caps is really rather violent. I've seen things that were already heavily oversold accelerate on the downside, although it looks like the Saudi's are going to keep oil above $80, perhaps that will stem the bleeding at least in energy. Financial markets have a habit of overshooting..

[admin]

This sums it up

[Palm]

If you believe in Elliot Wave theory then the following article is very frightening. http://www.avidchartist.com/2014/10/s-50...plete.html

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". You should be happy as hell right now Syd, not sowing fear. This type of post along with a post a few minutes ago from my sister expressing market fear tells me it's time to take another bite. Best times to invest are times like this. Per your posts Syd you should still have some cash on hand.

[Putncalls]

MARGINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

[Palm]

Margin debt surged in Sept Puts as retail investors repeated past mistakes in buying when the market is at highs. Margin buying is always dangerous and still is; more air to come out yet me thinks.

[SamAdams]

You have to buy when the fear is palpable and overwhelming.  Not all at once but with prudence.  We are close enough I think.  Buy Biotech, Airlines, Energy, Restaurants.  If ti goes lower you can average down and wait 18-24 monhts, IMO.  Some of the intraday swings have been as  big as I've ever seen in Mid and Small.  Down 8% to up 1% to close down 3%.  Fear and indecision.  IOC's recent declines reflect a some dissapointment in no signficant drilling results but I think more of the energy hit and smaller. less liquid names being shorted, generally.

[Palm]

Agree. Split my cash into 5 lots; so far 2/5 back in. Tomorrow prob more. Then sit and watch.

[admin]

You have to buy when the fear is palpable and overwhelming.  Not all at once but with prudence.  We are close enough I think.  Buy Biotech, Airlines, Energy, Restaurants.  If ti goes lower you can average down and wait 18-24 monhts, IMO.  Some of the intraday swings have been as  big as I've ever seen in Mid and Small.  Down 8% to up 1% to close down 3%.  Fear and indecision.  IOC's recent declines reflect a some dissapointment in no signficant drilling results but I think more of the energy hit and smaller. less liquid names being shorted, generally.

Agree with that, apart from buying the airlines. Ebola is a bit of a wild card here and even "unfounded" scares have real effects. I would look more to alternative energy where names have sold off with oil big time, seen premier names getting slashed 30-40% in a matter of weeks, which doesn't make much sense IMHO as the link with oil is really rather weak, they're not close substitutes.

[jft310]

I like financials and energy here. The worst of the huge large bank hits to earnings for past mistakes is over. Slowly put that toe in the water big boy. Carl Icahn states Apple can be $203 stock . China reports 20 million I phones sold in 3 days but part of that is double counts. Safe to say China likes the new IPhone .
Ebola, weak Europe spook the markets . Warren Buffett is buying auto dealerships expanding Realestate brokers into Europe etc.