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Treedaddy, could that be what's going on? It's possible. IOC most likely has been getting great advice from the IBs and Oneill possibly from his attorney and the Aussies. They have been countering Duma's every move and it could be that Oneill has said enough is enough. Time to get this done. Shell may have "won" but IOC has anything but lost. Could be we see Shell pay fair price for most/all of EA, IOC gets cash/stock combo which more than funds exploration for next phases and that's the pattern we see. Shell Japan and S Korea just did a deal in Canada and we may see them partner in png. IOC finds it and sells it to them and keeps moving.
And we see nice dividends and pps appreciation. Or IOC is now allowed to do their modular and Flex as project nr 3
Either way works great.
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Why doesn't shell just buy the whole operation?
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Poison pill keeps Shell from buying all of IOC. The IOC BOD knows that the individual parts are more valuable then a one time sell. Find a NG field sell it off .Find another NG field and sell it off.Rinse and repeat.
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IOC's share price does not reflect this.
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The PRE deal was a well kept secret...none of the message board insiders spoke a whisper of it beforehand...not a whisper.
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Interesting this is EXACTLY what I said might happen just today. In a third world country with 4th world politics this is what you get. They all care about themselves. If Duma needs to leak information and then support IOC and RDS to secure a spot in politics that is what he will do. It is not rocket science, we are dealing with thugs and punk politicians who would eat their young to get ahead. In the end, who really cares, either way as long as it moves ahead we make our money.
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Put, this is the crazy thing I keep thinking - Whilst Shell have tried to wrestle E/A off IOC, in the last 4 MONTHS alone, Richard Chandler has managed to get 12%+ of the WHOLE company at an average price of LESS THAN $60!!! I reckon he is going to manage to get 20% for about $60. That is $600m for 20% of the whole lot. How much is Shell and the others bidding for 25% of E/A - a lot, lot more is my guess.
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“I delivered to this nation the much talked about LNG project and second LNG in Gulf”
Q is: Is this 2nd LNG project in the Gulf the IOC led Gulf LNG scheme with a world class operator -or- a stick built mega plant by Shell as they are buying all/damn near all PRL 15??
Duma surely needs to be fine with either as partner/operator bidders have been pre-approved and he would approve Shell in a new scheme.
Me thinkie Duma is referring to the latter, as ennerOle will have cashed out of PRL15 with many more pearls to explore and Gulf LNG will become known as the 'third LNG Project', even though it is online prior to Shell's stick built 'second'.
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I think its a mega scheme to include a stick built plant and modular and floating LNG production.Shell doesn't have a project agreement .IOC has the agreement.There is no Shell agreemnt to do anything today now they can propose a stick built plant.I like the idea of one grand scheme.Tell Duma we will use Shell and a stick build but we also want EWC and FLEX with T-2 NG.The govt get more NG quicker.
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I repeat what I posted earlier in this thread:
"Looks to me that IOC is gonna monetize PRL 15 in one transaction. In return, that keeps IOC’s licenses and routine extensions to drilling deadlines will be granted by all future supportive DPE Ministers. IOC will get approval for Gulf LNG and T-2 will feed that. E/A and T-2 can both be delivered to CSPs at the same time. Shell to napanapa or large stick built in Gulf?? JKM throws in behind Shell/PRL 15 and IOC/T-2/Gulf LNG. JKM still gets much needed LNG in 2015 from Gulf LNG and dry gas fed to XOM for their expansion. Sounds like a win/win/win/win. All prior to AGM.
OK, I’ll admit, that last sentence is a bit of a stretch."
I forgot XOM. They need to be kept happy too. A dry gas feed deal should work fine. PNG left with 2 shiny state of the art stick builts and1 cutting edge Gulf LNG modular/flng. And maybe, that last sentence isn't too much of a stretch after all.
