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(07-12-2012, 03:44 AM)jake990037 Wrote: Yes indeed, Namah's trouble is a nice surprise--though even nicer would be Duma's losing which I reckon would be worth an immediate $5-10 on the pps. Even if Namah "gets stuffing" and wins his seat, his PNG party has been consistently lagging O'Neill's PNC in leading candidates so it's looking very unlikely he'll make it to PM over O'Neill (sorry, bonk--LOL).
(07-12-2012, 03:08 AM)Tree Wrote: (07-11-2012, 03:03 PM)Justin94360 Wrote: A few early morning highlights. Only very early on but Duma looks like he may be in a bit of trouble:
17 JAMES YOKA EKIP Independent M 666
19 WILLIAM DUMA United Resources Party M 521
10 SIMON SANAGKE Papua New Guinea National Party 507
Again very early but Namah in a lot of trouble:
38 Willie Obow Inaru Independent M 2088
34 James Fanio Independent M 518
30 Rodney Kane Melanesian Alliance Party M 373
22 Belden Norman Namah PNG Party M 369
32 Tradggy Nasiai Waramin Independent M 122
Somare back in second again:
20 ALLAN BIRD PANGU Pati M 27649
26 MICHAEL SOMARE National Alliance Party M 26764
Lookie here Jake. Still big trouble for the Back Yard Gardener. Namah best get to stuffing those ballot boxes.
**********
2948 - Willie Obow Inaru Independent
610 - Belden Norman Namah
Justin,
Been meaning to ask you (you mentioned bonk above), a while ago you asked bonk to email you on Yazoo about why he felt O'Neill might not return as PM. Care to share his reasons?
I am trying to not get too far ahead as far as enthusiasm in the election outcome, but so far things are looking good.
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Palm, 'twas me, jake, who asked bonk to email me. I promised I wouldn't disclose his reasons and I want to honor that, but since then he put a message on the yazoo mb that he thought Namah would be the next PM. I had thought that was a possibility given the agreement between Namah and O'Neill that whoever's party won the most seats would get the other's support as PM, and given how much money Namah has been throwing around (gifts of Toyota Landcruisers seem a favorite of his). But it's beginning to seem that even in PNG elections money doesn't buy you everything.
(07-12-2012, 04:15 AM)Palm Wrote: (07-12-2012, 03:44 AM)jake990037 Wrote: Yes indeed, Namah's trouble is a nice surprise--though even nicer would be Duma's losing which I reckon would be worth an immediate $5-10 on the pps. Even if Namah "gets stuffing" and wins his seat, his PNG party has been consistently lagging O'Neill's PNC in leading candidates so it's looking very unlikely he'll make it to PM over O'Neill (sorry, bonk--LOL).
(07-12-2012, 03:08 AM)Tree Wrote: (07-11-2012, 03:03 PM)Justin94360 Wrote: A few early morning highlights. Only very early on but Duma looks like he may be in a bit of trouble:
17 JAMES YOKA EKIP Independent M 666
19 WILLIAM DUMA United Resources Party M 521
10 SIMON SANAGKE Papua New Guinea National Party 507
Again very early but Namah in a lot of trouble:
38 Willie Obow Inaru Independent M 2088
34 James Fanio Independent M 518
30 Rodney Kane Melanesian Alliance Party M 373
22 Belden Norman Namah PNG Party M 369
32 Tradggy Nasiai Waramin Independent M 122
Somare back in second again:
20 ALLAN BIRD PANGU Pati M 27649
26 MICHAEL SOMARE National Alliance Party M 26764
Lookie here Jake. Still big trouble for the Back Yard Gardener. Namah best get to stuffing those ballot boxes.
**********
2948 - Willie Obow Inaru Independent
610 - Belden Norman Namah
Justin,
Been meaning to ask you (you mentioned bonk above), a while ago you asked bonk to email you on Yazoo about why he felt O'Neill might not return as PM. Care to share his reasons?
I am trying to not get too far ahead as far as enthusiasm in the election outcome, but so far things are looking good.
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That was Jake that mentioned him. I just asked him on Yazoo (don't have email contact with him) and as far as I'm aware he didn't answer. Always thought it strange that he should think Namah would make PM but he seemed very confident so was intrigued as to why.
I agree things in the election are looking very good, better than could have been hoped. Duma struggling and at worst he sneaks back in on final counts but is severely weekend with virtually no other MP's in his party. Namah maybe out but his party (aligned to O'Neill's) doing reasonably well. Numerous other parties that O'Neill has good/reasonable relations with doing ok.
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Jake, thanks for straightening me out; apologies to Justin also for the mix-up. Appreciate your honoring bonk's request Jake; had a feeling he expected Namah to possibly be the next PM, but I don't think Namah carries much support with the masses due to his very shady personal and professional past. I would expect also that he has little to no support from supporting countries due to his military backing and his lack of fear to brandish the sword regularly.
Thanks for the reply.
(07-12-2012, 05:10 AM)jake990037 Wrote: Palm, 'twas me, jake, who asked bonk to email me. I promised I wouldn't disclose his reasons and I want to honor that, but since then he put a message on the yazoo mb that he thought Namah would be the next PM. I had thought that was a possibility given the agreement between Namah and O'Neill that whoever's party won the most seats would get the other's support as PM, and given how much money Namah has been throwing around (gifts of Toyota Landcruisers seem a favorite of his). But it's beginning to seem that even in PNG elections money doesn't buy you everything.
(07-12-2012, 04:15 AM)Palm Wrote: (07-12-2012, 03:44 AM)jake990037 Wrote: Yes indeed, Namah's trouble is a nice surprise--though even nicer would be Duma's losing which I reckon would be worth an immediate $5-10 on the pps. Even if Namah "gets stuffing" and wins his seat, his PNG party has been consistently lagging O'Neill's PNC in leading candidates so it's looking very unlikely he'll make it to PM over O'Neill (sorry, bonk--LOL).
(07-12-2012, 03:08 AM)Tree Wrote: (07-11-2012, 03:03 PM)Justin94360 Wrote: A few early morning highlights. Only very early on but Duma looks like he may be in a bit of trouble:
17 JAMES YOKA EKIP Independent M 666
19 WILLIAM DUMA United Resources Party M 521
10 SIMON SANAGKE Papua New Guinea National Party 507
Again very early but Namah in a lot of trouble:
38 Willie Obow Inaru Independent M 2088
34 James Fanio Independent M 518
30 Rodney Kane Melanesian Alliance Party M 373
22 Belden Norman Namah PNG Party M 369
32 Tradggy Nasiai Waramin Independent M 122
Somare back in second again:
20 ALLAN BIRD PANGU Pati M 27649
26 MICHAEL SOMARE National Alliance Party M 26764
Lookie here Jake. Still big trouble for the Back Yard Gardener. Namah best get to stuffing those ballot boxes.
**********
2948 - Willie Obow Inaru Independent
610 - Belden Norman Namah
Justin,
Been meaning to ask you (you mentioned bonk above), a while ago you asked bonk to email you on Yazoo about why he felt O'Neill might not return as PM. Care to share his reasons?
I am trying to not get too far ahead as far as enthusiasm in the election outcome, but so far things are looking good.
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Maybe Namah should have bought a helicopter instead of that Gulfstream. At least some kind of STOL aircraft that can actually land in his district.
Of course Namah and O'Neil have an agreement which some claim to be binding, and if Namah doesn't get a seat that doesn't necessarily mean he won't be able to control others. Duma's loss though is much more conclusive. Finally, if O'Neil is seen as honest and progressive I suspect he'll control a large share of Indy's.
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07-12-2012, 04:33 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2012, 05:19 PM by Justin94360.)
O'Neil up to 17 at present (won 2, leading in 15). Somare's party (National Alliance Party) doing well leading in 9. Duma's party with a massive 2 - not looking like the party of kingmaker is it? The counting in his own seat hasn't updated for over a day now - obviously counting the votes himself and keeps getting stuck, maybe Shell will buy him a calculator.
Looks like that 'special' calculator is working, Duma now in a big lead:
19 WILLIAM DUMA United Resources Party M 6825
17 JAMES YOKA EKIP Independent M 1565
10 SIMON SANAGKE Papua New Guinea National Party M 1496
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18 People’s National Congress Party (O'Neill)
7 Independent
9 National Alliance Party (Somare)
6 PNG Party (Namah)
4 Triumph Heritage Empowerment Party (Polye)
4 Peoples Progress Party
3 Peoples Party
1 United Resource Party (Duma)
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Anyone else expecting an explosion coming from Namah very soon. Can't see him taking defeat very well.
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Here is O'Neill's press release from Tuesday where his Communications Advisor states how confident they are. What's also important to note is not just the first place votes PNC is receiving but the large number of 2nd and 3rd place votes. Those matter also. Also of note is the statement "In the coming days, Mr O'Neill will follow the election results closely and put in place a strategy to form the next government." In other words he is most likely already at work talking with others who are leading/winning their elections to quickly form a coalition once the final results are known in the next couple of weeks.
http://www.pncpng.com/news/20120709_pnc_...ent_02.pdf
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This is all very positive. Thanks for all the details.
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