Where are the Elephants?

[Petrovale]

I think I'm going to sell pink elephants now.

[Palm]

I think I'm going to sell pink elephants now.

Hohoho

[Thylacine-2]

CAC, one of the advantages of a focus on fundamentals (and those "other things") is that it's forward looking. A good understanding of the fundamentals of an E&P company has predictive value. Certainly not perfectly, but understanding the fundamentals is the best tool we have.

Judging the quality of management is tough. But taking the pps as the only thing that matters is inherently working with hindsight.

While the current IOC management is tight on operational details, a comprehensive plan has been laid out for exploring and monetizing our assets. The plan looks pretty good to me.

As far as today's pps is concerned, in the words of Bill Clinton, the great hamburger connoisseur, "I feel your pain."

[jdeo1969]

Great post CF. Sale of interest in PRL15, getting cash in door, getting lines of credit selling refinery, drilling, dealing with OSH Dispute leaves little time to communicate all but necessary.

I'll just say we have different opinions and leave it at that.

with a couple tidbits:

Interesting MH was appointed about 1 yr ago this week, and IOC is down about 13% and the Dow is UP about 13%.  Yeah, I reckon he's doing a Brownie 'heckuva job!'

And a pink shirt on his website photo! Good grief. Deer in the headlights.

I would argue that the stock price was over priced at the time due to drivel reports about an Exxon deal that never happened.  What we don't know is how far along the deal was before it was handed to Hession.  It is what it is.  At least Hession got a deal and he finally put a stake in the ground.  I don't want him looking at the stock price today.  I want him focusing on long term value.

CF

Your latter comment rings very true CF, but one thing I asked on this boared a week ago was that if the deal MH delivered with total, was the same deal that prior management had been working on (paraphrasing HEMI) then we were all completely mislead by Phil Mulacek and his comments during that time.  At some point, someone must be held accountable for the performance of this stock.  I am now called a whiner because I ask if it is reasonable to criticize MH for being way late on the drilling timelines that HE pout out there initially.  I am told that that is how ist is in the oil biz.  Well if that's the case, he should have never given us a timeline.  It is becoming more and more difficult to hold an investment in this stock, if there is no information from the CEO, ever, only platitudes and visions and transformational deals.  I'm sure I will be lit up like a cheap Christmas Tree for suggesting that this CEO is underferforming, but that's the way I see it with regard to the drilling campaign.  I give him high marks for the Total deal, unless the story posted on IOC's website about "being close to losing our lcienses" was trumped up to make Hession look better.  Either way it angers me to no end that they walked that fine a line, or the new CEO is making reference to that in order to be viewed as a white knight who saved the day.  As you can tell I am extremely frustrated that the stock price continues to drop and cannot hold the upper 60's or breakout.  And regarding being up 19.57% YTD Palm, that would be worth more is we weren't down 50% in the wake of the TRansformational deal.  In other words, that doesn't really hold any water with this investor.  I am focused very acutely on what Hession is doing right now, but I'm not going to give him a pass because we are on the same team, so to speak.  It is time for him to deliver value to we the shareholders.

Good luck longs

Jdeo

[jdeo1969]

Being a baseball junkie, I cannot help but leave this analogy I feel like a Cubs fan right now.

[CAC]

CAC, one of the advantages of a focus on fundamentals (and those "other things" is that it's forward looking. A good understanding of the fundamentals of an E&P company has predictive value. Certainly not perfectly, but understanding the fundamentals is the best tool we have. Judging the quality of management is tough. But taking the pps as the only thing that matters is inherently working with hindsight. While the current IOC management is tight on operational details, a comprehensive plan has been laid out for exploring and monetizing our assets. The plan looks pretty good to me. As far as today's pps is concerned, in the words of Bill Clinton, the great hamburger connoisseur, "I feel your pain." [/quote]

*********

I agree with that.  Good fundamentals should (and usually do) increase pps.  It's not that I don't care that SHU posters think highly of the fundamentals.  It's just that I would prefer it if the market did too...regardless of what it takes to accomplish that.  

[Getitrt2]

This is disturbingly unbelievable. Pet starts a thread about the substance of current and future exploration, and I address a question to him about oil as a target, including a quote from Raymond James about that, which happened to have the word "patient" in it. Suddenly, totally ignoring the substance of the thread, whiners come out in droves and completely take over the thread, turning it into ANOTHER repetitious whiners' thread! I'm beginning to wonder whether people like Pet, Palm, Tree, Sam, etc., and I should just stop posting anything until we have material news. I'm not trying to place blame, but I can't help thinking having supposed shareholders constantly whining and criticizing and complaining about supposed negatives and failings of the Company and management, past, present, and future, can't be helping the stock and may be hurting it, kind of like the old saying, cutting off your nose to spite your face. And they really have nothing new.

In spite of all the problems and delays (past and present) repeatedly being complained about and beaten to death, justly and unjustly, there is no doubt in my mind that IOC is by far in the best condition and position for the future that it has ever been in, not the stock, but the Company, which eventually will be reflected in the stock; and I feel sure new management should get most of the credit for that, given the resources that were found so, so many years ago. Does anyone really believe, in hindsight, IOC was in a good position with Exxon a year ago with competitors walking away? Did new management screw it up, or save the Company and create a better future for it? I strongly suspect the latter. How can people talk like IOC or others in PNG have not had significant problems and delays and failures with drilling, going all the way back to at least the 1950s? They almost lost and were unable to finish Elk 1, albeit a lesser discovery. They stepped out too far with Elk 2 and got nothing. Have people forgotten, the ones that were here, the interminable problems and delays with Antelope? Does no one think OSH, with better financing, and others in PNG have not had many problems and delays? How about OSH's apparent fiasco offshore in the Gulf? I would bet shareholders of other companies have not been counting the days and constantly complaining and whining on line. Bottom line, IOC has had enormous exploration success in PNG, on a shoestring, where others, including majors, have missed out or failed. I am hearing, by the way, that Rigs 2 and 3 are so old and inefficient that they will be replacing them after the current wells. Maybe that has something to do with the problems and delays, and thanks to current management, they have the capability to do that. Previous management was never even able to get in a position to use Rig 3; this is the first experience with it, at Wahoo, with by far the worst problems. I'm not trying to make excuses and not saying I'm not frustrated with the erroneous target dates and delays, and the communications, and maybe mistakes were made under time pressure of required March spuddings; but I can't say they were not justified, and expect some lessons have been learned. Saying, by the way, that at the June 24 update, Hession just screamed safety first and gave no substantive information about the problems and delays being experienced is a false statement, although I did not like the way he presented it. Some talk like Hession is on the rigs doing the drilling. They are depending on contract drillers and experts from such as Weatherford and Schlumberger. Regarding the short-term pps, when the market and energy stocks are going down and the stock is being manipulated, and management has no final material news to provide, what exactly are they supposed to do, other than focusing on and working diligently to achieve their business goals and working to attract new coverage and investors, all of which I feel confident they are doing. On the other hand, what good, or what harm, can all this constant repetitive complaining and whining do, essentially from perpetrators in no position to know exactly what is going on.

P.S.: IMHO, the claim that the refinery and distribution business would be a substantial enough business for the Company and the stock to fall back on in the event of failure of resource monetization and exploration is ridiculous. That capital is best allocated now, when a good buyer is available, to take full advantage of the opportunities the Company now has for resource monetization and exploration, and help ensure and maximize its success as an E&P company. Any investors not here for that kind of investment and ride, and that kind of potential, or who have little confidence in IOC's success as that, really need to move on and find something more appropriate for them, IMHO.

Okay, I've said my piece now, and I'm here with the target on my chest, although not pink, today. Have at it!

[SamAdams]

The PPS is the PPS at this point.  I think more institutional coverage will help eventually and not sure what they're waiting for.  Perhaps the first new discovery under the new regime could be that catalyst as others start to see the pearls.  Story is sginficantly better and de-risked from a year ago but the assets are the same.  The issue with Wahoo was the aggressive timeline, which MH now admits, that was given.  So be it, we will wait, but some do wonder why they were surprised at how tough the sticky shale has been.  Not critiicizxing but curious, as I'm sure many are.  You can't watch your favorite baseball team and not comment on the manager's moves or plays during the game.  In the end that's what most of us are doing but any public company gets scrutiny not just IOC.  I think JFT is right and I would hope we get 2 of 3 on the new wells.  The sequence will be important to the short term stock price but not in the long run.

I thought about this a lot.  A good analogy is we have  a AAA ball club stocked with all-star talent.  The old GM didn't want to rush them to the majors (no pun intended) beacause he would have to pay up (LNG plant, better rigs, more E&P $ etc.)  He was the GM who found the talent and signed them up when everyone else overlooked them.  His time ran out though, took too much time, and the new GM is moving them up to the big leagues for the stretch drive.  Some will make it and some will not.  They now have the budget to pay for some of the talent ( higher drilling expenses) and we will see how good they all are. Maybe we end up with 8 position players, a five man rotation and a closer.  Seem appropriate for a hot summer day.

[Petrovale]

Okay, I've said my piece now, and I'm here with the target on my chest, although not pink, today. Have at it!

Oh, come on, Getit, you should try pink...

[ArtM72]

Being a baseball junkie, I cannot help but leave this analogy I feel like a Cubs fan right now.

Ugh.  THAT was an ugly shot.  I don't know the reason for the 1969 in your moniker, but I remember 1969 very well.  In 1969 I was a Cubs fan from Chicago going to a school in New York, a school teeming with Mets fans.  It was not a pretty Autumn.  With a six game lead on the Mets and 8 games left in the season the Cubbies found a way to lose.