News from IOC

[Justin94360]

Palm, there is a New York Times article floating around that explains it all for you.

[Palm]

Palm, there is a New York Times article floating around that explains it all for you.

Hohoho, must have missed that Justin.  Wish someone would post that once in a while for all to see.

[johnwgrant]

"The forward program is to complete a final drill stem test (DST) over the open hole interval combined with production logging instrumentation to provide further dynamic reservoir characteristics and flow capacity."

I thought they had indicated they would NOT be doing this "humongous" DST... So, what changed their mind? Is there some additional info that they will gain by doing this? Is it so that they can PR "Another World Record Flow Rate" again ?!?!

Any guesses ?

[Libtardius Maximus]

[quote='johnwgrant' pid='16505' dateline='1359056051'] "The forward program is to complete a final drill stem test (DST) over the open hole interval combined with production logging instrumentation to provide further dynamic reservoir characteristics and flow capacity." I thought they had indicated they would NOT be doing this "humongous" DST... So, what changed their mind? Is there some additional info that they will gain by doing this? Is it so that they can PR "Another World Record Flow Rate" again ?!?! Any guesses ?

covering all the bases in event of a total buyout offer.

[oilmd9]

Would love a buyout offer and see the shorts scramble. A full DST should make for nice pics with the politicians.

[tarulestheday]

Yesterday it seemed like it took balls of steel to sell puts (which I did). Today it looks like it was a no-brainer.

Holding IOC will increase your testicular fortitude over time.

We are moving beyond "TOOT TOOT" as we can now start to see the ship coming into focus.

[petrengr1]

"The forward program is to complete a final drill stem test (DST) over the open hole interval combined with production logging instrumentation to provide further dynamic reservoir characteristics and flow capacity." I thought they had indicated they would NOT be doing this "humongous" DST... So, what changed their mind? Is there some additional info that they will gain by doing this? Is it so that they can PR "Another World Record Flow Rate" again ?!?! Any guesses ?

I will try to give you my best guess for an answer to some of you questions but first let’s look at the PR and see what they have told us - just for a reality check.

I believe that I was the first one to suggest that Antelope-3 would be the best of the three Antelope wells (Sept. 28, 2012 before the well was drilled) , see http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/showthread.php?tid=1707 . Since the well was drilled IOC has said in two press releases Antelope-3 is the best of the three Antelope wells. So I guess I can say I was right. Well, not so fast!

If you look at today’s PR they no longer say Antelope-3 is the best of the three wells. Today they give a comparison of certain well data for the three wells. Here is how Antelope-3 ranks:

Hydrocarbon Column Height- First

Feet of Net Pay- Second (Antelope-1 is first)

Net to Gross- Third (Antelope-2 us first and Antelope-1 is second)

Average Porosity- Second (Antelope-2 is First)

So, I would say that Antelope-3 is about an average of the other two Antelope wells that are on top of the reef (disregarding Elk-4). Based on that alone I would say we should not expect too much of an increase in the resource volume from GLJ in their 2012 year end update. On the other hand, I do see in the GLJ report that is on the IOC website, GLJ did use a “continuity uncertainty factor of 0.8”. So, perhaps this third well may improve their continuity uncertainty factor which will allow them to increase the volume a slight amount. Finding the top of the zone a little higher than expected at Antelope-3 will also help but it does not raise the top of the whole field, for example the top of the zone would not change at the fixed depth established at Antelope-1, Antelope-2 and Elk-4.

Regarding the future testing, they have given us a few hints that will allow us to make some guesses.

The huge tests at Antelope-1 and Antelope-2 were made through 7” tubing. Here they specifically say they will be running a drill stem test (DST). That should tell us that they do not plan to test through 7” tubing but through the drill pipe. The drill pipe will restrict the flow so I do not expect one of the huge flow rates that we saw at Antelope-1 and Antelope-2. They say “over the open hole interval” which should tell us that they plan to set the packer inside the bottom of the casing and test the entire open hole interval. Further, they say “combined with production logging instrumentation to provide further dynamic reservoir characteristics and flow capacity.” That tells us they will be running a wire line logging tool through the down hole tools while they are testing. This means the tools will have more or less full opening and will not be restricted by a bottom hole choke. They could probably achieve up to 100 MMCFD rate through the drill pipe but I think they can only measure the liquids at rates below about 48 MMCFD. I don’t think they will learn much with the production logging tools because I expect most of the gas will come from the zone of highest permeability (probably the lost circulation zone at 5,817 feet (1,773 meters)) and this stronger zone will have very little pressure drawdown which will keep the tighter zones from producing very much. We saw this at one of the previous Antelope or Elk wells.

Since they will not have the conventional down hole DST tools they will have to get the bottom hole flowing pressure with the production logging tools. This is what they use to determine the Absolute Open Flow Potential (AOF) for the well.

They will produce the well on four or more different choke sizes and see what the bottom hole flowing pressure is at each flow rate. All of these flow rates will probably be below 48 MMCFD. After they get all of the scientific data they may pull the production logging tools out of the hole and open the well up on a larger choke for PR purposes. The highest rate may well be more than 100 MMCFD.

　

[Tusker]

Is this the match that will light this candle??? Shirley!!!

Welome onboard Sintnvstr,

We have a incredible voyage ahead of us.

Cheers

Tusker

[Putncalls]

I wish bonk was here today.

[ArtM72]

Pet -

Thanks as always for your insight. A couple of basic question if you don't mind.

First, is it correct to assume that the formation draw off is most likely to be from near the bottom of the wells given there is where the highest condensate fraction is seen, with higher areas only opened up only as necessary to keep the LNG plant running at capacity?

Next, I haven't seen anything that suggests testing will be done to record how flow tests at any E/A well influence the static pressures seen at the others. I would think this to be an important test. Have I missed something along the way?

Best regards,