Cap Re held Fido added

[sfiaes]

Short manipulation aside, there are no buyers.

The recent trip from $90 to $51 has made investors sufficiently skeptical to warrant IOC becoming a "show me the money" stock.

I also suspect that most seasoned investor's are expecting news to leak and show up in the options market first.

[Libtardius Maximus]

Maybe management wants to roast shorts as bad as we do. Pavel thinks the table is set as well.

I know some here disagree with this but a signed PA would nail the back door shut.

[ArtM72]

Sounds to me like if your broker gives you an LOC for the (then current) stock value you are taking a pretty serious risk that the stock will not be returned following a major run up/short squeeze and you will end up having missed a substantial part of the gain.

[MRP]

Usually another financial institution gives you the LOC and they mark it to market every day. The process is designed to be pretty straight forward and low on execution risk.

[bertl05]

Short manipulation aside, there are no buyers.

The recent trip from $90 to $51 has made investors sufficiently skeptical to warrant IOC becoming a "show me the money" stock.

I also suspect that most seasoned investor's are expecting news to leak and show up in the options market first.

No secrets in PNG O&G circles, very true sfiaes. Yes its a show me story, but it is also a timing story. For example what do you pay PPS wise for produvtion of a smaller project with 2016 production (modular for example)? What do you pay for that same production in 2018? How much does that effect the discount? How much cash will IOC get? 200 million? or 750 million? How much does that effect the valuation currently? How much does the $$ value of the SD change the PPS valuation? When will the cash upfront be paid? Surely not immediately, surely only after FID, at least the bulk of it. XOM isnt PRE after all. So when will FID be? End 2014? Mid 2014? Where does IOC get the cash to drill the manadtory wells in their other licenses in order to keep them if the bulk of the upfront cash is payable at FID? Or in stages after FID? Its really not as simple as some make it out.

One story is a conventional plant with 2018 startup and a modest amount upfront cash at a $1 sd price. That doesnt scare the shorts at all. How much retail selling occurs on deal news...those that dont want to hold till 2018?

One story is modular with 2016 startup and lots of cash upfront at a $2 SD price.

Another story is a combination.

Is IOC post deal worth $75? $90? $120? $150? Certainly not less than $58 i'm sure. Some contend IOC loses most of their licenses in 2014. I don't believe that for a minute. The best will be drilled. Some will be coughed up. But I'm sure they have considered this.

We will see shortly. But nobody is buying or selling, Bring it on.

"When all the cards are down...theres nothing left to see..theres just the pavement left, and broken dreams." JG

[bertl05]

Short manipulation aside, there are no buyers.

The recent trip from $90 to $51 has made investors sufficiently skeptical to warrant IOC becoming a "show me the money" stock.

I also suspect that most seasoned investor's are expecting news to leak and show up in the options market first.

No secrets in PNG O&G circles, very true sfiaes. Yes its a show me story, but it is also a timing story. For example what do you pay PPS wise for produvtion of a smaller project with 2016 production (modular for example)? What do you pay for that same production in 2018? How much does that effect the discount? How much cash will IOC get? 200 million? or 750 million? How much does that effect the valuation currently? How much does the $$ value of the SD change the PPS valuation? When will the cash upfront be paid? Surely not immediately, surely only after FID, at least the bulk of it. XOM isnt PRE after all. So when will FID be? End 2014? Mid 2014? Where does IOC get the cash to drill the manadtory wells in their other licenses in order to keep them if the bulk of the upfront cash is payable at FID? Or in stages after FID? Its really not as simple as some make it out.

One story is a conventional plant with 2018 startup and a modest amount upfront cash at a $1 sd price. That doesnt scare the shorts at all. How much retail selling occurs on deal news...those that dont want to hold till 2018?

One story is modular with 2016 startup and lots of cash upfront at a $2 SD price.

Another story is a combination.

Is IOC post deal worth $75? $90? $120? $150? Certainly not less than $58 i'm sure. Some contend IOC loses most of their licenses in 2014. I don't believe that for a minute. The best will be drilled. Some will be coughed up. But I'm sure they have considered this.

We will see shortly. But nobody is buying or selling, Bring it on.

"When all the cards are down...theres nothing left to see..theres just the pavement left, and broken dreams." JG

[sfiaes]

Lots of questions Bert, most will have to wait to be answered until we see the deal.

As a long, none of them really scare me.

Most discounted cash flow models I have seen, using reasonable discount rates(12%), arrive at substantially higher values regardless of the time frame and size.

Quality partners will bear lots of fruit, give us lots of options. Further sell downs for upfront cash to minority partners. Bankable off take agreements, etc...

The problem isn't the shorts, it's the lack of buyers.

It makes no sense for the institutions to call there stock in now, wait till we get to $100, then squeeze 'em.

[bertl05]

I'm not a big squeeze guy,but it does happen to various degrees. And having had close associations in the business for many years, I don't think "calling back" shares by bigs has much of an effect , why im unsure of. So I doubt there is a strategy to call in at 100. But I agree 100% that the "right" partner will allow appreciation and put a floor under PPS. I'd love to see a new big buyer this month.. that would seal the shorts place.

My personal opinion is that we settle around 90 after the chaos of "news" day trading.

[sfiaes]

Here's how I handicap it in my own mind:

After deal I think there is a 60% probability the stock settles between $75 - $100, a 30% probability its settles above $100 and 10% below $75.

Given there is a 90% chance you make 25% or better in the next two months from these levels, I think the stock should be trading currently $10 - $15 higher. Obviously the market thinks different .

The problem is all the historical baggage this stock carries around, otherwise you would be hard pressed to draw up a more compelling investment.

[bertl05]

Well stated SF. I think we are on the same page basically. I certainly am ready for deal of some sort.

"A deal... I beg of thee" . A deal my sire"........

Sir Alexey Arakcheyev

War of 1812