Cap Re held Fido added

[trans]

All I can say is the stock is being magnificently manipulated to portray this image. Remember these are the biggest traders in the stock and control the price in the absence of NEWS. There is $700 million on the short side of IOC, and these same people are not used to losing, because of their trading clout, as you saw today. There are a few that escape this short web, and IOC has the ingredients to be one of them. We'll see, but I've been in this game before and it's nasty and is rank manipulation. Hello, SEC

[bertl05]

All I can say is the stock is being magnificently manipulated to portray this image. Remember these are the biggest traders in the stock and control the price in the absence of NEWS. There is $700 million on the short side of IOC, and these same people are not used to losing, because of their trading clout, as you saw today. There are a few that escape this short web, and IOC has the ingredients to be one of them. We'll see, but I've been in this game before and it's nasty and is rank manipulation. Hello, SEC

Concurr Trans and have for quite sometime.It would be very odd that pre binary event you would see such a huge short vs float %. Ive seen higher short%, but rarely this high a % of free float. It is a sign to me that he short fear index on IOC is quite low. That in conjunction with the low volume and 5% downtrend this past week, lead to believe shorty is not too worried

Ive been castigated for empowering the shorts by exaggerating their prominance. But my contention is, has been and will be that they can steer the PPS where they want, at their beckoning. A SD will check that ability, but they wont go away, and I doubt we will see a biug squeeze that has a lasting effect. I still contend a much more modest PPS appreciation than some.

I'm prepared for a good deal, Ive waited, Ive discarded conventional wisdom.....blow my socks off with a blockbuster deal. You have set me up for that mgmt. So im locked and loaded, Blow me away with a killer deal.,,,, A deal sire...I beg of thee a deal.

[admin]

["Ive been castigated for empowering the shorts by exaggerating their prominance. But my contention is, has been and will be that they can steer the PPS where they want, at their beckoning. A SD will check that ability, but they wont go away"]

Since it was me who did the scolding let me add a few things here:

1) After Netflix and Herbal life, I believe even less in this short invincibility then before.

2) Why would they? Even a half decent deal:
- De-risks the project to a large extent
- Sets the clock ticking to monetization
- Provides funds for exploration on a much bigger scale, with the potential of more Antelope size finds, there are 10-12 possible reefs out there to be drilled.

So humor me, what exactly would be the downside after a deal?

Given that there basically is little to no downside after a half decent deal, what would be the risk-reward?

In your universe, bert, the shorts are not only all powerful, they're equally phenomenally irrational.

Unless you, or anyone comes up with any half decent arguments, I'm afraid you're wrong on both counts. We're creating some kind of bogeyman here.

Unless that bogeyman is Australia Inc., I fear we're dealing with phantasms here.

And if you really believe that the shorts are that powerful, then why are you long? That boggles my mind, to be honest, but maybe that's just me.

[Stavros]

It seems to me that in July and August the PPS went from 70 to 99 mostly because the Shorts did some covering; I don't recall how many total short shares were covered back then but I believe it was less than 2 million.

The Short holdings then started climbing and here we are back to below 60 and a new all-time-high Short count.

Methinks that when the small fry Retail Shorts are obliged to start covering in early March, the PPS will rise by at least $25 for each million they cover. Maybe 3-4 Million shares and up to $100 PPS increase beyond the lift from the SD deal. So, with the deal we pop to $120 and go over $200.

That would leave 7-8 Million shares short and in the hands of deep-pocketed crooks.

This begs the question whether the deep-pocketed big boy Shorts will try to hold onto their position after the run-up, thinking there will be a reversal back to $120, and not cover?

This leads to the ultimate question of WHO is lending their shares to these guys and WILL THEY CALL THEM IN THEREBY FORCING THE BIG SHORTS TO COVER???

If Wayne has been doing his job, he's convinced Richard Chandler, Wells, Fidelity, Cap Re and all the others to gang up and call ALL their lent shares home to roost when the SD deal is announced.

Is Pavel predicting a Short Squeeze (he's pretty confident we'll see one) because he thinks he knows what the big IOC shareholders might be planning to do????

Time will tell.

[Relker]

In the Q4/2011 CC it was announced that part of the upfront cash payment will be used for a share buyback. As long as the buyback price per share is lower than the NAV price per share such action is beneficial to the shareholders because of the leverage effect on the NAV value per share. So, we must be grateful that shorters are lowering the instep-price for a share buyback. However, it remains to be seen if the deal will lead to an upfront cash payment big enough to do this and it can be even more attractive to use all the cash to invest in a LNG-plant. However, management is in the late fifties and they are more inclined to look at the shareprice on the short run. I do not expect a hostile take over. The poison pill is very effective.

[jft310]

Heres the facts:
-The shorts are trapped , they can not cover without spiking the PPS. Listen to Pavel he would know would better than most.There is a major new buyer of IOC stock hiding as they buy.
-Why are the largest holders of IOC stock adding??See the recent fund filings. Think they know more ???
-Talk of bids around a $1 is OLD information BEFORE the new PA Nov 15, 2012. Today IOC has at least one SM all over them. The bids are way up and above the $2.20 Exxon price with OSH. Amazing what A-3 has done to the bids and a new PNG govt and well just O'Neil.I don't know the exact bids but they will surprise Bert and what the shorts think is going on.Not to say Bert is in with the short but he posts the short arguement to longs and this then creates doubt for some longs.
-The shorts source with the DPE doesn't pass info anymore. So the shorts are stuck with old info.See the talk of 2017-2018 LNG production(without early monetization), bad mouthing of modular which Exxon used on PNG and talk of $1 per mcf. These are the shorts arguements but they are living in the past.
-IOC has an early monetization scheme. IOC will receive cash flow well before 2017. IOC has spoken about several different early monetization plays and the SM will decide which ones to employ and when.
-IOC is selling down the entire E/A resource not just Train 1. More short nonsense.
-For those unsure about the PPS you have four things to look at, 1)The Exxon sell down mcf price and understand IOC is less than 1/2 the project cost of PNGLNG ,2)The Mitsui option contract for E/A buy in price signed by IOC and Mitsui. A contract price.Thats 2.5% of E/A for $500 million that puts a $22 Billion imputed price on E/A. 3)The PRE price per mcf paid in a signed contrat at $2.85 per mcf in todays dollars .4) The Murebeni price of $3 per mcf. These are the relevant MCF prices for IOC .
-The reality is the BIGS have been using the weakness to buy more from weak longs that listen to old short information and see a weak PPS share and fear and then sell some.Hint the BIGS are buying your shares from you cheap.
Conclusion use the weakness to add to IOC and wait till March and the POP the cork!!

[admin]

For the record, I really don't think Bert is short or anything like that, but I also don't think the shorts are anywhere near as powerful or irrational as he claims. We went from 10 to 80 in a short time even without a deal in 2009.

IOC is simply a difficult sell at the moment, not that many are familiar with the story and of those that are, many need "proof of concept" before buying in earnest, that is, a deal. There are simply not enough buyers at the moment, but any half decent deal is going to change that for reasons set out above.

[jft310]

For the record I never stated Bert was short.Nor did I imply such proferssor What I stated was Bert was posting the short arguements which no longer were true. For a fact the shorts contact longs and pose as longs and then pass along some true info to win confidence and then pass along garbage. One person you and I both know and that is Kevin. He has been so contacted. Maybe the same person contacted Bert also.????
The facts are what I stated in my post. Some longs have more current information than others is my point.
The PPS today has nothing to do with the assets, nor their value, nor is any indication of what the prices may be. Some understand what a CA is and others don't. The shorts info provider is deballed, thus they have old info and thus they don't know whats going on. Retail shorts short more. Many funds are waiting for the SM name, the price, the project type, dates etc. Those longs will pay quite a bit more than a today long.Or the early bird gets the worm.

[cybersssss]

At least I appreciate presentation of both the short and long arguements here, in a coherent and respectful manner (unlike the zoo).  That is the purpose of this board.

A few words of wisdom:

1)The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

2) Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years

If you believe in the deep value that this company represents then just hang in there. Day to day machinations of the stock mean absolutely nothing.  The stock is deeply discounted at 60 bucks a share.  It is worth significantly more whether you think they will get 1.00/mcf or 5.00/mcf.  Whether money is upfront or delayed. Wether the company is bought out or sells down and continues to explore.

Let the day traders make there money with the low float, low volume.  Hang in there for the long haul: imminent, very soon, shortly, or whatever it may be.

At least I keep telling myself this.

[kommonsents]

I think we are failing to account for another scenario with the "shorts". That scenario would be that they are already well hedged with long stock positions and long options positions. With multiple accounts and circular trading, their NET short positions would be unknown. Only their short positions/accounts would be reported.  I believe their NET short positions are far less than what is being reported.

The recent and present market pps action says to me that they are still building their hedged and long positions in stocks and options. I believe they are ready to be net long, probably are already in that position. In the meantime, what with weekly options, we can see the weekly manipulation of the pps. The shorts and the MMs are making pretty good pocket change from manipulation of the pps and working the options market.  They are also probably covering and establishing their long positions at lower pps along the way.

I think that a significant change will be signaled by a decrease in basher traffic over on the Yazoo mb, perhaps even replaced with paid pumpers. If we see that happen, especially with former paid bashers, we will know they have switched sides.  I think we are already seeing some of this.