XOM or RDS buyout

[ebster123]

I am not sure about $125 but I would bet $175 would grab may. If they grabbed a few million shares in the market on Friday and before then they don't need too much to make it happen. I would not like this but I would not be surprised.

[AD123]

If Exxon or Shell wanted to take out InterOil, would they have to complete the sell-down to TOTal, or, would they be able to cancel the deal ? Are there penalties for either side (InterOil or TOTal) to cancel at this point ?

i took a brief look at the SPA and did not see any liquidating damages clause that would allow IOC to terminate the agreement without cause in the event IOC was taken over by XOM or RDS and they chose to terminate the agreement. Leads me to beleive Total would have the right to compell a closing or at a minimum sue for damages for breach of contract.  Anyone have a different conclusion.

If i am right, that would certainly have a chilling effect on anyone looking to buy out the company.

Apart from a buyout from Total, does anyone else have a view on my read of the SPA if XOM or RDS were to buy out the company?  What are the implicaitons of an IOC termination of the Total agreement?

[Palm]

The language in that SPA is pretty standard stuff. You can have all kinds of language that makes it look like trouble for certain things, but fact is anyone wanting to buy IOC would have a clause, "subject to them striking a deal with Total...... blah blah blah." Reaching pretty far to think these kinds of things aren't anticipated, or they don't happen. Especially in this industry.

[Movieguy]

Since we all believe IOC has great value from the Total deal, what would be so bad for a buyer if they just kept it? The Total deal basically makes an IOC purchase a slam dunk, as your purchase price (even if well into the 100s) is covered. You then get all IOC's prospects for free to do with as you wish.

[mikesioc]

At these valuations Total and Oil Search must be discussing a buyout and IOC may be the "golden goose in the cage" alluded to in a previous post. The price that would get it done may depend on where Chandler and Paulsen are made whole plus a little bonus. Guessing the institutional shareholders that remain and any new longs would seriously consider a nice round number like $100 that is now being thrown around. It could get done rather quickly, with no one to put up much resistance they would essentially be negotiating with themselves and no one loses money. A Total led consortium could get the whole enchilada for the same top end price as 42.5% of PRL 15 that Total was already prepared to pay by themselves. All IMHO but just sayin'.

[Thylacine-2]

At these valuations Total and Oil Search must be discussing a buyout and IOC may be the "golden goose in the cage" alluded to in a previous post. The price that would get it done may depend on where Chandler and Paulsen are made whole plus a little bonus. Guessing the institutional shareholders that remain and any new longs would seriously consider a nice round number like $100 that is now being thrown around. It could get done rather quickly, with no one to put up much resistance they would essentially be negotiating with themselves and no one loses money. A Total led consortium could get the whole enchilada for the same top end price as 42.5% of PRL 15 that Total was already prepared to pay by themselves. All IMHO but just sayin'.

Those ferocious predators better pounce quick.  "These valuations" won't be here long.  Be gone by the end of the week? ;-)

[Palm]

At these valuations Total and Oil Search must be discussing a buyout and IOC may be the "golden goose in the cage" alluded to in a previous post. The price that would get it done may depend on where Chandler and Paulsen are made whole plus a little bonus. Guessing the institutional shareholders that remain and any new longs would seriously consider a nice round number like $100 that is now being thrown around. It could get done rather quickly, with no one to put up much resistance they would essentially be negotiating with themselves and no one loses money. A Total led consortium could get the whole enchilada for the same top end price as 42.5% of PRL 15 that Total was already prepared to pay by themselves. All IMHO but just sayin'.

"must be discussing a buyout"; Quite a reach with that as well as what Chandler and others might accept.  No way of guessing what they might accept.  Since we are guessing, I'd guess especially Chandler is looking for more than $100, just because "it's a nice round number".

[ltinvest]

Mike, it has always made too much sense to me that for similiar $$$, Total or someone else could buy all of IOC and keep the exploration upside. I'd be disappointed in $100 considering the drilling that's to take place over the next couple of years. However, for the same reason, if I'm an acquirer, now is the time to buy out Interoil. Even at $120, there seems to be massive upside if E/A certifies at GLJ numbers and just one additional prospect becomes another E/A type resource.

[WhiskeyDelta]

E/A @ 10T, T-2 @10T, Elephant @ 10T. That's 30T's that Hessian has told the world are likely there, plus unknown amounts in a bakers dozen more untapped areas. Fifty cents/mcf gets us to $15bil. I will guess that Shell will open the bidding @ $10bil. Maybe that will buy it all. I would doubt it.

[streamingeagle88]

E/A @ 10T, T-2 @10T, Elephant @ 10T. That's 30T's that Hessian has told the world are likely there, plus unknown amounts in a bakers dozen more untapped areas. Fifty cents/mcf gets us to $15bil. I will guess that Shell will open the bidding @ $10bil. Maybe that will buy it all. I would doubt it.

Open at $10B. After all the confusing metrics bandied about the past few days I can just hear Shell execs explaining to their board why IOC is worth $200/share. My take is that $150 is a surefire deal.

Hey Shell give it a shot. And maybe soon before OSH and XOM further complicate the deal.

Then Duma can start his own bank.