XOM or RDS buyout

[AD123]

14mm shares have traded in the last two days. If i was thinking about a buyout, i would try to buy as many shares as i could on the QT to not drive up the price then file my 13D at the absolutely last minute i could and share my intentions. Let's see if the volume continues at this torrid pace.

[streamingeagle88]

And even if Shell did not ultimately prevail they could do wonders for the stock price, torture the shorts and make a bundle on the stock trade. Also for diehard longs they would explain to the dubious investment world why IOC is worth so very much more than $60/share.

IOC execs could take notes.

[Movieguy]

The various bidders (supermajors, etc.) in the lengthy IOC selldown process know best what IOC is worth as they were privy to lots of inside information for which they signed confidentiality agreements. Part of these agreements included a clause where these entities could not purchase IOC shares on the open market, but they could always place a bid (friendly or unfriendly) to buy the company. It has been suggested that now that the selldown deal has been announced, that these clauses expired. I would like to know if that is truly the case.

As StreamingEagle has just suggested, These deep-pocketed supermajors, etc. would be great buyers of the stock and would very likely either make very good money on their investment(s) or end up buying the whole company and making a lot more. If the clauses that prevent them purchasing shares are still in effect, I want management to void them. We need buyers, and these buyers could be huge. If these companies are free to buy IOC stock and are not, it is a great mystery as to why, unless things are not nearly as good as we believe and they know this. I can't see how this could be the case, but we should at least consider the possibility, as painful as that may be.

[ArtM72]

An adjacent thread by Daveontb "An Alternative View" suggests with their 30% from E/A alone IOC would see cash flow upwards of $150/share.

Now I know there are people out there who can't wait to trade and take some profit, but I have to wonder, when I look at the numbers, just why on earth would anyone want to do so at prices anywhere near that level?

What do they say ....it isn't the number of times you get knocked down that matters, only the number of times you get up?

[mikesioc]

At these valuations Total and Oil Search must be discussing a buyout and IOC may be the "golden goose in the cage" alluded to in a previous post. The price that would get it done may depend on where Chandler and Paulsen are made whole plus a little bonus. Guessing the institutional shareholders that remain and any new longs would seriously consider a nice round number like $100 that is now being thrown around. It could get done rather quickly, with no one to put up much resistance they would essentially be negotiating with themselves and no one loses money. A Total led consortium could get the whole enchilada for the same top end price as 42.5% of PRL 15 that Total was already prepared to pay by themselves. All IMHO but just sayin'.

"must be discussing a buyout"; Quite a reach with that as well as what Chandler and others might accept.  No way of guessing what they might accept.  Since we are guessing, I'd guess especially Chandler is looking for more than $100, just because "it's a nice round number".

You are correct. Guess was the wrong word.  It was an opinion that Total may now be in a position to buy IOC.  If Total can bid for the entire company for an amount within the range that they may have to fork over to own 47.5% of PRL 15 it should be on their mind.  $110 is $5.3 billion which we know is certainly within their reach.  If it's being discussed on SHU it is well within reason that it has occurred to someone at Total. How many longs expected last Thursday we would be at $60 after a deal announcement? A logical answer is not Chandler or Paulson or any of the mutual funds, all of whom are likely in the process of adjusting their expectations while they catch their breath. I don't know what Chandler or any other major holder would accept but 14 million shares have changed hands the last two days at or below $60.  At what price are those buyers willing to sell?  $101, $121, $131?  Any of those figures are a very handsome return for a short term investment. I have been a patient long for years and have followed the bouncing ball closely. I have seen many long term projections and believe Hession is on the right track but it is no great leap that last Friday put the company within reach for a Total led consortium if they are so inclined. The window may close quickly but the opening is there, IMHO.

[streamingeagle88]

At these valuations Total and Oil Search must be discussing a buyout and IOC may be the "golden goose in the cage" alluded to in a previous post. The price that would get it done may depend on where Chandler and Paulsen are made whole plus a little bonus. Guessing the institutional shareholders that remain and any new longs would seriously consider a nice round number like $100 that is now being thrown around. It could get done rather quickly, with no one to put up much resistance they would essentially be negotiating with themselves and no one loses money. A Total led consortium could get the whole enchilada for the same top end price as 42.5% of PRL 15 that Total was already prepared to pay by themselves. All IMHO but just sayin'.

"must be discussing a buyout"; Quite a reach with that as well as what Chandler and others might accept.  No way of guessing what they might accept.  Since we are guessing, I'd guess especially Chandler is looking for more than $100, just because "it's a nice round number".

You are correct. Guess was the wrong word.  It was an opinion that Total may now be in a position to buy IOC.  If Total can bid for the entire company for an amount within the range that they may have to fork over to own 47.5% of PRL 15 it should be on their mind.  $110 is $5.3 billion which we know is certainly within their reach.  If it's being discussed on SHU it is well within reason that it has occurred to someone at Total. How many longs expected last Thursday we would be at $60 after a deal announcement? A logical answer is not Chandler or Paulson or any of the mutual funds, all of whom are likely in the process of adjusting their expectations while they catch their breath. I don't know what Chandler or any other major holder would accept but 14 million shares have changed hands the last two days at or below $60.  At what price are those buyers willing to sell?  $101, $121, $131?  Any of those figures are a very handsome return for a short term investment. I have been a patient long for years and have followed the bouncing ball closely. I have seen many long term projections and believe Hession is on the right track but it is no great leap that last Friday put the company within reach for a Total led consortium if they are so inclined. The window may close quickly but the opening is there, IMHO.

Right on. I couldn't agree more. The more I ruminate on the IOC shareholders conundrum the more a bid seems inevitable. And Shell might choose to fuel a fire that could light up the Paris sky.

Wonder who dials first: Duma, Chandler, Paulson or Total or even Shell. This long running morning soap can't go on forever. The players become too old and haggard.

With incredulity I ask: Is now the time it finally ends?

[ebster123]

The various bidders (supermajors, etc.) in the lengthy IOC selldown process know best what IOC is worth as they were privy to lots of inside information for which they signed confidentiality agreements. Part of these agreements included a clause where these entities could not purchase IOC shares on the open market, but they could always place a bid (friendly or unfriendly) to buy the company. It has been suggested that now that the selldown deal has been announced, that these clauses expired. I would like to know if that is truly the case. As StreamingEagle has just suggested, These deep-pocketed supermajors, etc. would be great buyers of the stock and would very likely either make very good money on their investment(s) or end up buying the whole company and making a lot more. If the clauses that prevent them purchasing shares are still in effect, I want management to void them. We need buyers, and these buyers could be huge. If these companies are free to buy IOC stock and are not, it is a great mystery as to why, unless things are not nearly as good as we believe and they know this. I can't see how this could be the case, but we should at least consider the possibility, as painful as that may be.

other SM's could also buyout the IPI investors...

[kommonsents]

The various bidders (supermajors, etc.) in the lengthy IOC selldown process know best what IOC is worth as they were privy to lots of inside information for which they signed confidentiality agreements. Part of these agreements included a clause where these entities could not purchase IOC shares on the open market, but they could always place a bid (friendly or unfriendly) to buy the company. It has been suggested that now that the selldown deal has been announced, that these clauses expired. I would like to know if that is truly the case. As StreamingEagle has just suggested, These deep-pocketed supermajors, etc. would be great buyers of the stock and would very likely either make very good money on their investment(s) or end up buying the whole company and making a lot more. If the clauses that prevent them purchasing shares are still in effect, I want management to void them. We need buyers, and these buyers could be huge. If these companies are free to buy IOC stock and are not, it is a great mystery as to why, unless things are not nearly as good as we believe and they know this. I can't see how this could be the case, but we should at least consider the possibility, as painful as that may be.

other SM's could also buyout the IPI investors...

If someone else buys the IPI interest, what happens to IOC's 30% interest. Isn't that inclusive of the IPI interest?

[cybersssss]

Hession alluded to on the cc that the IPI will be announced shortly and was essentially taken care of.

If that is done, there is no barrier to a takeover. Friendly or hostile.

[Tree]

"other SM's could also buyout the IPI investors..."

[/quote]

Agreed LT.   But only at a premium vs. IOC/TOT agreement and approvals of such proposed sale.

Either way it is a Strategic sell down.