So let me get this straight...

[mikesioc]

If IOC simply recertifies at 9.9 TCfe....the GLJ best case after 3 seperate years of analysis......Total is paying IOC $4 BILLION is the next 18 months. Total could come in right now and write a $5 BILLION check and have the whole damn thing....every last bit of upside. What a ridiculous steal!

Welcome to the party.

[Putncalls]

If IOC simply recertifies at 9.9 TCfe....the GLJ best case after 3 seperate years of analysis......Total is paying IOC $4 BILLION is the next 18 months. Total could come in right now and write a $5 BILLION check and have the whole damn thing....every last bit of upside. What a ridiculous steal!

5 Billion? 2.3 Billion gives them ALL OF IOC at this point.

[Gator]

IOC at this price is theft…and it keeps stealing from us every day.

[cybersssss]

Just a thought: At this price Total can buy 20 percent of the outstanding shares. For 500 mililon dollars they are pretty much buying the lower side case of the IOC story. The additional exploration, that they are essentially funding, they get for free. They end up reducing there exposure on the upside. It is like an incredible hedge for them.

In addition, down the line in 2016 at FID or later they can just buy the whole thing out with stock and this reduces their dilution markedly.

HMMMMMMMMMMM......

[mikesioc]

Just a thought: At this price Total can buy 20 percent of the outstanding shares. For 500 mililon dollars they are pretty much buying the lower side case of the IOC story. The additional exploration, that they are essentially funding, they get for free. They end up reducing there exposure on the upside. It is like an incredible hedge for them. In addition, down the line in 2016 at FID or later they can just buy the whole thing out with stock and this reduces their dilution markedly. HMMMMMMMMMMM......

That logic is exactly why this is getting bought out way before FID.  Not sure why so many seem to be in denial about this.

[jft310]

Looking back IOC has drilled 1 well every two years..!
What happens when our new CEO's under promise and over deliver words come true. ???
Hession stated Dec 6th on the CC that IOC would have 4-6 rigs drilling he used the words rigs not wells.
How many wells can a rig drill in a year ?? More than 1 well seems fair. IOC will receive $613 million
and also receive Total Farm Agreement revenue. I guess an additional $300 million from the Farm.
Or IOC will have $913 million to drill ahead for 12-18 months.
Part of the drilling costs will be shared by PRE and Total and maybe our minority partners who
can wait to be paid. Or maybe the IPI get some cash now and more cash/stock later. They can per
agreement be bought out at anytime. The agreement even has the price in section 9
of the agreement but no one reads section 9 and the $25 million per 1% buyout clause. I say
HUH? Could Civelli cut a better deal well maybe if they shared certification risk.??
The deal closing, the cash received and all these new rigs tell the tale.!!
In my honest opinion the PNG govt would not allow IOC to be bought out or taken over. How can I say
that ?? Look at Oil Search they were not bought out. Not to say we would not get offers.

[mikesioc]

there's no efficiency.....no rationality.....nothing close to what makes any sense. various analysts have calculated NAV using conservative variables and have come up with price targets 60% to 120% higher than where we are now. It's beyond absurd!

I totally agree with the frustration!  But, I disagree with the the statement that there is "no rationality."  If there are 10T of gas in E/A, at $15 per mcf the total value would be $150 billion.  If there are is an "elephant" in Antelope deep, if Triceratops is larger than E/A, and if there are 5 or 6 more potential reefs, how much more would these be worth than the $150 billion for E/A?  In comparision to the value of these fields, how much less expensive are the costs when these fields are 3 days from the three largest LNG importers on the planet?  How much less are the costs when you are drilling on land not far from the coast as opposed to drilling in deep water?  "No rationality?"  Of course there is!  There is/has been a huge, behind the scenes battle of epic proportions for these assets.  Lies, misinformation, black pools, naked shorting,etc plus a combination of government corruption in a third world country and mega dollars from super major international corporations hungry to increase reserves and profits for what they consider "petty cash."  A few hundred million to Amud is huge.  A few billion to Shell is peanuts!  Several posters have aluded to this, the biggest challenge facing IOC is being bought-out for chicken feed.........$150-$200!  That my friends, is the rationality! (In my humble opinion, of course).

If fending off an offer for $150 is the biggest problem this must be heaven.

[jft310]

Mike IOC had a poison pill . Details are public

[mikesioc]

Mike IOC had a poison pill . Details are public

Yes. Holders not offering shares get rights. But with the concentration of shares that may not be as expensive as it sounds.  Next 13F filings will be very interesting.

[jft310]

100 percent agree on the filings

I know 6 of the top 10 didn't sell , the rest who knows

The story keeps getting better , the stock price will catch the fundamentals