At what price would an Interoil buyout succeed?

[Dmarque]

Seems this thread may have become quite relevant. I stick with my vote of $125 - 150 ($140 if we get specific), but I'd be happy to seem higher and such a case is very reasonable.

Based on the results of the input on this thread apparently the shorts are winning this game.  They've beaten down the optimism of so many here regarding the value of the assets we have to significantly lower levels compared to where everyone was at just a couple years ago when so much less was known or had been accomplished.  Time has caused people to get anxious and at the same time lose their sense of what portends for the untapped property at our disposal.   I think a thread like this does more harm than good.   Would you show your cards early at the poker table too?

mark

It's called reality.  I think $85 is not a real number.  However the days of the stock being worth $500+ if we just wait it out are long gone.  A realistic price at some premium to the TOT deal would get it done and that's well below $200.  Many might not like that but its where its at.  I personally don't think they  ges taken out, another long term myth that will go by the wayside,  and the PPS  willl rise and fall with drililng results until we get more calirty around resource certification.  I have no problem with the poll to guage what holders are thinking and feel the paranoia around manipulation continues to be overdone.  The company and management, past and present, have been their own worst enemy in this regard.  An $85 take-out would be like Patton getting shot in the middle of the street....

It's reality.......until it's not. AND that is REALITY too.

[ArtM72]

I have to wonder how many juniors have in the past made thousands of percent returns for their owners, owners who understood the value of their property and held firm against forces aligned to buy them out for pennies on the dollar.

To read the comments of some posters here a 50% return on investment represents some sort of historic precedent. Nonsense.

[Dmarque]

I have to wonder how many juniors have in the past made thousands of percent returns for their owners, owners who understood the value of their property and held firm against forces aligned to buy them out for pennies on the dollar. To read the comments of some posters here a 50% return on investment represents some sort of historic precedent. Nonsense.

See that is the issue.  I dont believe this happens overnight.  The assets are signficiant and only over time do they become fully realized.  So many here want it all NOW and from a single piece of over night news that drives the price to a level that satisfies "their need".   All companies start out as Juniors......they don't all stay juniors.  Is Google worth more than 1200?  Is Apple worth more than 540?  Amgen?  I remember when each of these stocks was trading for single digits.  Time alllows the full value of a property to be realized.   But it's musical chairs for shareholders.  Those who can hold on long enough will ultimately see higher valuations than the "want it now" crowd.

Believe, me I know.  I bought Berkshire Hathaway at $1200/share and thought I was brilliant selling it for $5000.  Bought Amgen at $3 and thought I was brilliant selling the stock many splits later at $60.

What holds my optimism in IOC is that the valuations being dicussed are based predominately on the wells we have under consideration.  Very little is assumed for future wells or the fact that we might actually hit an oil deposit at some point over the next TEN YEARS.   I'm not committed to this investment for the next 12 months but for the next decade.  I think we have a lot of people here that are easily distracted by a "Shiny Penny".   Give up your shares too early and you'll miss ......"The Rest of the Story".

Best regards to everyone~!

[jft310]

Some of us have been with the IOC story near 10 years and some many more years

[Dmarque]

[quote='jft310' pid='37759' dateline='1392982565'] Some of us have been with the IOC story near 10 years and some many more years [/quote

I understand that.....myself included but you don't dig up tulips in the winter to see how they are doing because you want them to bloom asap.

10 years doesn't earn us any special priviledges.  Another 10 years of growth ahead is just as likely.

[jft310]

Dmarque agreed.

[kerekesc]

I find it amusing to read lately that persons so confidently state that $500 per share is merely a pipe dream.....that reality today is what matters, and that reality is in the vicinity of $150.  And, that we greedy ingrates should be thankful for that fair valuation.  Well, the real reality is that even at $500, we would be under compensated!

As an analyst, Matt Badiali is certainly head and shoulders above most.  In his recent analysis of IOC, he compared the value of IOC at 10T reserves with a number of similar sized companies.  That comparison alone values IOCat $25-$44 billion (do the math).  With the completion of the Total deal in which IOC will have a 30% participation in the Gulf LNG project, and the fact that the Triceratiops field is potentially larger than E/A, even $500 seems ridiculously low.

Most would agree that there is a tremendous amount of manipulation occurring with IOC shares.  Yes, some of that is due to management missteps, but I would suggest that it is mostly due to the trmendous amount of wet gas which IOC has found.  Add in the close proximity to the China, Korea and Japan markets, and one can easily see the reason for the struggles by large, powerful organizations to obtain the rights to these assets, which are literally worth 100's of billions, for cheap!  In addition, it is also not difficult to understand that the struggle to obtain IOC's resources, now, is subject to great manipulation...before they become reserves.  As the moment when FID is achieved nears, the greater this struggle becomes.  Once FID is achieved, the price to obtain IOC will increase by many multiples.  $150 is peanuts!  $150 is merely a scare tactic to get one to sell before the real value/potential is realized.

Remember, many pwerful individuals/organizations have an interest in having IOC achieve its potential....just as there are many powerful persons/organizations which have an interest in IOC begin sold at $85-$150!  As a small, private investor, I am very aware that a potential investment like IOC does not occur frequently.  I can only hope that IOC's management and institutional investors agree with my views...rather than settle for peanuts!

[Movieguy]

Final poll results based on 49 votes, using same methodology as previous:
Mean = 153
Median = 138
Mode = 138

[Dmarque]

I find it amusing to read lately that persons so confidently state that $500 per share is merely a pipe dream.....that reality today is what matters, and that reality is in the vicinity of $150.  And, that we greedy ingrates should be thankful for that fair valuation.  Well, the real reality is that even at $500, we would be under compensated!

As an analyst, Matt Badiali is certainly head and shoulders above most.  In his recent analysis of IOC, he compared the value of IOC at 10T reserves with a number of similar sized companies.  That comparison alone values IOCat $25-$44 billion (do the math).  With the completion of the Total deal in which IOC will have a 30% participation in the Gulf LNG project, and the fact that the Triceratiops field is potentially larger than E/A, even $500 seems ridiculously low.

Most would agree that there is a tremendous amount of manipulation occurring with IOC shares.  Yes, some of that is due to management missteps, but I would suggest that it is mostly due to the trmendous amount of wet gas which IOC has found.  Add in the close proximity to the China, Korea and Japan markets, and one can easily see the reason for the struggles by large, powerful organizations to obtain the rights to these assets, which are literally worth 100's of billions, for cheap!  In addition, it is also not difficult to understand that the struggle to obtain IOC's resources, now, is subject to great manipulation...before they become reserves.  As the moment when FID is achieved nears, the greater this struggle becomes.  Once FID is achieved, the price to obtain IOC will increase by many multiples.  $150 is peanuts!  $150 is merely a scare tactic to get one to sell before the real value/potential is realized.

Remember, many pwerful individuals/organizations have an interest in having IOC achieve its potential....just as there are many powerful persons/organizations which have an interest in IOC begin sold at $85-$150!  As a small, private investor, I am very aware that a potential investment like IOC does not occur frequently.  I can only hope that IOC's management and institutional investors agree with my views...rather than settle for peanuts!

Well, stated K.  I completely agree.

Mark

[sageo]

I find it amusing to read lately that persons so confidently state that $500 per share is merely a pipe dream.....that reality today is what matters, and that reality is in the vicinity of $150.  And, that we greedy ingrates should be thankful for that fair valuation.  Well, the real reality is that even at $500, we would be under compensated!

As an analyst, Matt Badiali is certainly head and shoulders above most.  In his recent analysis of IOC, he compared the value of IOC at 10T reserves with a number of similar sized companies.  That comparison alone values IOCat $25-$44 billion (do the math).  With the completion of the Total deal in which IOC will have a 30% participation in the Gulf LNG project, and the fact that the Triceratiops field is potentially larger than E/A, even $500 seems ridiculously low.

Most would agree that there is a tremendous amount of manipulation occurring with IOC shares.  Yes, some of that is due to management missteps, but I would suggest that it is mostly due to the trmendous amount of wet gas which IOC has found.  Add in the close proximity to the China, Korea and Japan markets, and one can easily see the reason for the struggles by large, powerful organizations to obtain the rights to these assets, which are literally worth 100's of billions, for cheap!  In addition, it is also not difficult to understand that the struggle to obtain IOC's resources, now, is subject to great manipulation...before they become reserves.  As the moment when FID is achieved nears, the greater this struggle becomes.  Once FID is achieved, the price to obtain IOC will increase by many multiples.  $150 is peanuts!  $150 is merely a scare tactic to get one to sell before the real value/potential is realized.

Remember, many pwerful individuals/organizations have an interest in having IOC achieve its potential....just as there are many powerful persons/organizations which have an interest in IOC begin sold at $85-$150!  As a small, private investor, I am very aware that a potential investment like IOC does not occur frequently.  I can only hope that IOC's management and institutional investors agree with my views...rather than settle for peanuts!

kerekesc-I don't know how you did it,(??) but you read my thoughts [almost] exactly! I hope you won't mind,that I printed your post and put it in my kids and grandkids file. At my age now,I probably will not be around to see this companies fine successes over the coming years (if they aren't bought out), but my heirs can if they are patient. As always......"if the good Lord is willin' and the creek don't rise" . [Sorry you youngsters on the board...I just go WAY back !]    Mark- thanks for agreeing with ker !