OSH move jeopardize Gulf LNG?

[Palm]

If you read all of the material and listen to what Botten has said he much more talks about a train for PNG LNG and then a new standalone 2 train plant than any hints at 3 trains going to PNG LNG. However I do think all involved feel there is plenty of gas in PRL 15 and the other license areas to do most anything, and they have been clear in saying that the government is pushing to take the path to quickest monetization early on. They will be weighing all the factors once deals get closed and gas gets proven up. This story is going to be changing constantly for a while providing plenty of drama and trading opportunities. The good news in all of this is taht with OSH now part of the mix, instead of denying the resources in these license areas they will be bragging about them. Don't forget how they touted the offshore stuff that until now has really proven up little or nothing.

I think stories like this will pop up like the whack-a-gopher game gophers until the Gas Agreement is signed by all.

[jft310]

If you read all of the material and listen to what Botten has said he much more talks about a train for PNG LNG and then a new standalone 2 train plant than any hints at 3 trains going to PNG LNG. However I do think all involved feel there is plenty of gas in PRL 15 and the other license areas to do most anything, and they have been clear in saying that the government is pushing to take the path to quickest monetization early on. They will be weighing all the factors once deals get closed and gas gets proven up. This story is going to be changing constantly for a while providing plenty of drama and trading opportunities. The good news in all of this is taht with OSH now part of the mix, instead of denying the resources in these license areas they will be bragging about them. Don't forget how they touted the offshore stuff that until now has really proven up little or nothing. I think stories like this will pop up like the whack-a-gopher game gophers until the Gas Agreement is signed by all.

based on what I read OSH settles in 2 weeks and total by end of month. That's not to long for all all of this to be settled. I

guararantee that late to the party OSH will not kill the highest dollar LNG revenue for Total and Interoil . I also can't see the

current Exxon partners giving up enough LNG participation to beat out the economics of your own 2 train LNG plant. A 30

percent interest is worth $1.5 Billion for 30 years . That's the bar the Exxon plant would have to reach. Odds of that near

zero. Even with a spend of $13.5 billion to build the plant that's 3-4 years of LNG revenue. Nada .over 30 years, which Exxon

partner will allow Total and Interoil even 25 percent a piece to join their project. The economics of your own plant are just so

powerful . Then again if IOC finds lots more gas which is expected then everything changes.

Or to be determined.

[Palm]

Read the article I just posted. It says there is a big chess game going on.

[ArtM72]

So many issues should fall by the wayside with a few more DSTs. We might never again have the access to the DSTs we once had but the evidence of their success and failure should be clear from gas collection and processing plan development.

With OSH soon to own a chunk of E/A with access to Triceratops it would seem a minor risk for their PNG LNG group to proceed with construction engineering plans for the gulf pipeline connection and much of their third train. The challenge to that plan I suppose is should Wahoo and adjacent prospects prove out a second complete pipeline would be necessary to send the gas to Port Moresby. That gas of course could go west to Kerema but a successful completion of OSH's negotiations for PacLNG/IPI drilling rights in that area would have an influence on whether the gas would go east or west.

[sageo]

Read the article I just posted. It says there is a big chess game going on.

Palm- Good am to you. "chess game" ...funny,these are the same words I used several years ago to describe the activity in IOC stock to my beautiful wife.  I just never believed it would go on so long, but man was I wrong.Oh well, we shall just try to hang in there! As Hemi says,'Health and Happiness" to you and yours.