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'AlphaMine' pid='38431' datel Wrote:
The way I see it, there are two very unusual circumstances about this particula "halting." First, usually by now we would know what caused the stock to be halted. If it really were a Blomberg article, enough people would know anout it that I would expect to have seen someone report on it somewhere. Second, usually when a stock triggers a halt due to negative news (like when MW attacked NQ a few monthd back) it will continue tripping circuits while plunging. So for the stock to recover like it did means a lot of intelligeny buyers decided or KNoW that there isn't actually any bad news. When you consider the level of uncertainty we just experienced coupled with a stock that hasn't really had a real down day in a month, one would be justifid to expect a MUCH uglier close.
A friend of mine who is an investment banker just text me that the cause of the stock drop and halting was a "alorithim mistake." So basically a trading error probably sold a much larger block then it was supposed to and thst triggered the stops. If it were a real problem or attack, then when it was down nearly $4/share and reopened the shorts or sellers would have had little problem pushing it lower. Just imagine how thinky stacked the stops are down there in the 17s... Instead when it reopened there was massive buy side pressure as indicatd by the volume. To me 12MM volume day and the stock is only down 5% or something as of now, that speaks of confusion, not fear or determined selling. I'd wager almost all the selling was done by traders just like Pwalk who basically decided the risk was too high to buy it back until he KNOWS what caused the issue. When it is confirmed that it was algorithmic.
My buddy is saying a computer sent through a sell order on a block of 1M shares, and that caused all the issues. Also for whatever it may be worth, he says the pro's have been buying it up because of the Tencent buyout rumors.
Yes, thanks, it seems to have been an algorithm or fat finger mistake, I've heard that also now from a few sources. These things do happen..
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03-01-2014, 08:55 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2014, 08:58 AM by AlphaMine.)
quantumvibes dateline='<a href="tel:1393627479">1393627479</a>' Wrote: Well, fwiw, you can include me in the list of sellers today. I let go of about 40% of my position at the 19+ level just to play it safe. I figure if everything's ok, there should be plenty of opportunity to add, even if it is at a higher pps. Of course, a buyout erases that upside, but I can live with that. This is just a reflection of my own risk tolerance, and not a judgment on how anyone else managed their positions today. Overall, I'd be happy as pie if in retrospect I should have held on as the remaining shares will do well. p
Quantum,
I believe your post very succinctly and accurately describes the thought process of the majority today and that is exactly why the stock closed where it did. I mean if the news came out that it was only a glitch from multiple credible sources then you would probably have considered buying those shares back right?
Also I am told that if you have access to level 2 quotes you can actually track down and see the 1million share block sale.
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'admin' pid='38439' datel Wrote:
'AlphaMine' pid='38431' datel Wrote:
The way I see it, there are two very unusual circumstances about this particula "halting." First, usually by now we would know what caused the stock to be halted. If it really were a Blomberg article, enough people would know anout it that I would expect to have seen someone report on it somewhere. Second, usually when a stock triggers a halt due to negative news (like when MW attacked NQ a few monthd back) it will continue tripping circuits while plunging. So for the stock to recover like it did means a lot of intelligeny buyers decided or KNoW that there isn't actually any bad news. When you consider the level of uncertainty we just experienced coupled with a stock that hasn't really had a real down day in a month, one would be justifid to expect a MUCH uglier close.
A friend of mine who is an investment banker just text me that the cause of the stock drop and halting was a "alorithim mistake." So basically a trading error probably sold a much larger block then it was supposed to and thst triggered the stops. If it were a real problem or attack, then when it was down nearly $4/share and reopened the shorts or sellers would have had little problem pushing it lower. Just imagine how thinky stacked the stops are down there in the 17s... Instead when it reopened there was massive buy side pressure as indicatd by the volume. To me 12MM volume day and the stock is only down 5% or something as of now, that speaks of confusion, not fear or determined selling. I'd wager almost all the selling was done by traders just like Pwalk who basically decided the risk was too high to buy it back until he KNOWS what caused the issue. When it is confirmed that it was algorithmic.
My buddy is saying a computer sent through a sell order on a block of 1M shares, and that caused all the issues. Also for whatever it may be worth, he says the pro's have been buying it up because of the Tencent buyout rumors.
Yes, thanks, it seems to have been an algorithm or fat finger mistake, I've heard that also now from a few sources. These things do happen..
Couldn't have happened at a worse time, with all eyes watching for the potential release of the audit at EOD. The coincidence is suspect IMO, but things happen. Incredible.
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'quantumvibes' pid='38437' datel Wrote:Well, fwiw, you can include me in the list of sellers today. I let go of about 40% of my position at the 19+ level just to play it safe. I figure if everything's ok, there should be plenty of opportunity to add, even if it is at a higher pps. Of course, a buyout erases that upside, but I can live with that. This is just a reflection of my own risk tolerance, and not a judgment on how anyone else managed their positions today. Overall, I'd be happy as pie if in retrospect I should have held on as the remaining shares will do well.
There is nothing wrong manging investment risk. I always manage my trading risk especially I have a very large long positions on NQ in my portfolio, I am considering adding more next week if no negative news.
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'AlphaMine' pid='38440' datel Wrote:
'quantumvibes' pid='38437' dateline='<a href="tel:1393627 Wrote:Well, fwiw, you can include me in the list of sellers today. I let go of about 40% of my position at the 19+ level just to play it safe. I figure if everything's ok, there should be plenty of opportunity to add, even if it is at a higher pps. Of course, a buyout erases that upside, but I can live with that. This is just a reflection of my own risk tolerance, and not a judgment on how anyone else managed their positions today. Overall, I'd be happy as pie if in retrospect I should have held on as the remaining shares will do well. p
Quantum,
I believe your post very succinctly and accurately describes the thought process of the majority today and that is exactly why the stock closed where it did. I mean if the news came out that it was only a glitch from multiple credible sources then you would probably have considered buying those shares back right? Also I am told that if you have access to level 2 quotes you can actually track down and see the 1million share block sale.
Yes, I would buy back - a portion back at least. Feel free to use me as a fairly reliable barometer for the herd mentality!
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So if it was an "algorithm mistake" does the company still have to sell the shares? If they don't, then wouldn't that be a perfect way to manipulate the market. They could tell their buddies to get ready to buy they are going to make an "algorithm mistake." "Whoopsie! So sorry we didn't mean to press that button." Meanwhile all their friends get thousands of share relatively cheap and they can make the "algorithm mistake" next time.
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'Traderjack' pid='38449' datel Wrote:So if it was an "algorithm mistake" does the company still have to sell the shares? If they don't, then wouldn't that be a perfect way to manipulate the market. They could tell their buddies to get ready to buy they are going to make an "algorithm mistake." "Whoopsie! So sorry we didn't mean to press that button." Meanwhile all their friends get thousands of share relatively cheap and they can make the "algorithm mistake" next time.
Don't think it works that way, for the most part. There's been rollbacks for huge anomalous events like the famous "flash crash," but for individual companies, just look to Knight Capital Group for the defining experience.
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I emailed Matt, when the stock was halted. Obviously I was dumbfounded and annoyed. What I think is rather interesting though is when you call Matt's cellphone, it rings but before going to voicemail it connects to a CHINESE COUNTERPART. I don't speak Mandarin, but it seems like Matt (or his cellphone for that matter) is currently in China. After realizing this, I didn't panic, maybe that's naive, I don't know. But I spoke with Matt on the phone on Tuesday the 25th to discuss Samsung and other things and I got off the phone feeling optimistic that things were in good order and only a matter of time for even better news. Thus I didn't panic yesterday although I'm still uneasy.
As much as I want to believe yesterday was an anomaly, I obviously don't know for sure, but considering it seems like Matt is in China right now, I think we might hear something soon enough. The only thing that does confuse me is if he is there now, how will he be prepared for San Fran on Monday for the presentation with investors. Obviously this is possible but it's very interesting to me..
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Spacchiusu,
Did Matt say anything about audit results when you spoke to him on 25th February? I had email correspondence with him two weeks ago - at that time, he said that NQ did not provide a specific time frame for the independent audit because it was truly independent (and not controlled by NQ Management), but that NQ certainly wants it completed as soon as possible.
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03-02-2014, 05:43 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-02-2014, 05:47 AM by thecrazykevy.)
'Spacchiusu' pid='38485' datel Wrote:I emailed Matt, when the stock was halted. Obviously I was dumbfounded and annoyed. What I think is rather interesting though is when you call Matt's cellphone, it rings but before going to voicemail it connects to a CHINESE COUNTERPART. I don't speak Mandarin, but it seems like Matt (or his cellphone for that matter) is currently in China. After realizing this, I didn't panic, maybe that's naive, I don't know. But I spoke with Matt on the phone on Tuesday the 25th to discuss Samsung and other things and I got off the phone feeling optimistic that things were in good order and only a matter of time for even better news. Thus I didn't panic yesterday although I'm still uneasy. As much as I want to believe yesterday was an anomaly, I obviously don't know for sure, but considering it seems like Matt is in China right now, I think we might hear something soon enough. The only thing that does confuse me is if he is there now, how will he be prepared for San Fran on Monday for the presentation with investors. Obviously this is possible but it's very interesting to me..
It's around a 13 hour flight from China to San Francisco and you also gain time when flying from China to the US. China is currently 16 hours ahead of Pacific Standard Time so there's plenty of time to get there if he leaves on Sunday in China. Assuming he is in China.
Say you board a plane in China on Sunday that departs 12 PM and it takes exactly 13 hours to land in San Francisco. When you land in San Francisco, it is 9 AM Sunday local time.
But there were a short on Stocktwits who said this
A trade said rumor of offcial SEC investigation of $NQ. Morgan Stanely conference already cancelled. Resignations possible
Sounds like complete BS though.
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