Where are the Elephants?

[jdeo1969]

Petrengr1, Did you notice in the 7/3 RJ "Brief", they said, "It would be rather academic (and, frankly, useless) to talk about anything resembling results before the wells reach total depth and can be tested, so the market will simply need to be patient. That said, these are all multi-Tcf targets, and Raptor has liquids potential in addition to gas.". Also, I feel sure you are aware that on the Raptor slide of the May 14 presentation, and I think others, they indicated, "First test of new trend near Puri-1 oil discovery"; but my impression is that the oil flow there did not last. It seems to me that all this is relevant also to the plans to drill Puri Deep and Kereru Deep on the Raptor trend in the future, as you indicate. I know there's a hesitation to talk about oil at this point, but it's mentioned in previous presentations and apparently is coming up at roadshow presentations and meetings. Any comments you care to make on all this?

I think shareholders would be more patient as MH requested, had we not exceeded HIS target dates without anything but a "be patient speech."  Anyone from IOC using the term patience should be punched in the mouth in my opinion.  I've been patient, others here have been more patient than myself.  Put up or shutup is where I stand, and quite firmly at this point.  Where are the drilling results?  That is a fair question.  I wonder if anyone bothered to ask or if they just genuflected in the presence of the CEO.

Good luck longs

Jdeo

[sageo]

Petrengr1, Did you notice in the 7/3 RJ "Brief", they said, "It would be rather academic (and, frankly, useless) to talk about anything resembling results before the wells reach total depth and can be tested, so the market will simply need to be patient. That said, these are all multi-Tcf targets, and Raptor has liquids potential in addition to gas.". Also, I feel sure you are aware that on the Raptor slide of the May 14 presentation, and I think others, they indicated, "First test of new trend near Puri-1 oil discovery"; but my impression is that the oil flow there did not last. It seems to me that all this is relevant also to the plans to drill Puri Deep and Kereru Deep on the Raptor trend in the future, as you indicate. I know there's a hesitation to talk about oil at this point, but it's mentioned in previous presentations and apparently is coming up at roadshow presentations and meetings. Any comments you care to make on all this?

I think shareholders would be more patient as MH requested, had we not exceeded HIS target dates without anything but a "be patient speech."  Anyone from IOC using the term patience should be punched in the mouth in my opinion.  I've been patient, others here have been more patient than myself.  Put up or shutup is where I stand, and quite firmly at this point.  Where are the drilling results?  That is a fair question.  I wonder if anyone bothered to ask or if they just genuflected in the presence of the CEO.

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Jdeo - "That is a fair question" ! I  agree.....a fair question that we deserve an answer to. Thanks for your concerns about our interests .

[Getitrt2]

Petrengr1, Did you notice in the 7/3 RJ "Brief", they said, "It would be rather academic (and, frankly, useless) to talk about anything resembling results before the wells reach total depth and can be tested, so the market will simply need to be patient. That said, these are all multi-Tcf targets, and Raptor has liquids potential in addition to gas.". Also, I feel sure you are aware that on the Raptor slide of the May 14 presentation, and I think others, they indicated, "First test of new trend near Puri-1 oil discovery"; but my impression is that the oil flow there did not last. It seems to me that all this is relevant also to the plans to drill Puri Deep and Kereru Deep on the Raptor trend in the future, as you indicate. I know there's a hesitation to talk about oil at this point, but it's mentioned in previous presentations and apparently is coming up at roadshow presentations and meetings. Any comments you care to make on all this?

I think shareholders would be more patient as MH requested, had we not exceeded HIS target dates without anything but a "be patient speech."  Anyone from IOC using the term patience should be punched in the mouth in my opinion.  I've been patient, others here have been more patient than myself.  Put up or shutup is where I stand, and quite firmly at this point.  Where are the drilling results?  That is a fair question.  I wonder if anyone bothered to ask or if they just genuflected in the presence of the CEO.

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Note that in my posting the comment about "patient" was from RJ, not IOC.  On "drilling results", you can demand them all you want, but you just got an update two weeks ago, and they cannot produce them until they have them.  Doesn't  sound like a "fair question" right now to me.

[petrengr1]

Petrengr1, Did you notice in the 7/3 RJ "Brief", they said, "It would be rather academic (and, frankly, useless) to talk about anything resembling results before the wells reach total depth and can be tested, so the market will simply need to be patient. That said, these are all multi-Tcf targets, and Raptor has liquids potential in addition to gas.". Also, I feel sure you are aware that on the Raptor slide of the May 14 presentation, and I think others, they indicated, "First test of new trend near Puri-1 oil discovery"; but my impression is that the oil flow there did not last. It seems to me that all this is relevant also to the plans to drill Puri Deep and Kereru Deep on the Raptor trend in the future, as you indicate. I know there's a hesitation to talk about oil at this point, but it's mentioned in previous presentations and apparently is coming up at roadshow presentations and meetings. Any comments you care to make on all this?

When we are drilling for oil and gas we look at the drill cuttings to see if we have any oil shows. If we drill through a reservoir rock and the reservoir contains oil then the drill cuttings will have a white or blue fluorescence under a black light. If the reservoir contains wet gas then we may see a fluorescence but to a lesser extent. If the reservoir contains dry gas we may not have any fluorescence in the cuttings. We also monitor the gas in the mud as we are drilling. The mud logger does both of these basic analyses and in this day and time they can do much more sophisticated analyses. Based on what the mud logger sees we may be able to say we have had an oil show or we have had a gas show.

These terms are usually only used for the well being drilled and not for some other well that was drilled on the same trend. I think there may have been some confusion at the road show when Hession or others mentioned that we had seen oil previously (1959) on the Raptor-1 trend when Puri-1 was drilled and produced oil for a few days. He also told people at the road show meeting that we had NOT reached the pay zone on any of the three wells currently being drilled. Base on this I would say we have not had any oil shows and probably no gas shows yet at Raptor-1 and Bob Cat-1. I have previously written that I think there may be some sandstones above the main carbonated pay zone at Wahoo. They could have penetrated some sandstones above the carbonate/limestone pay zone at Wahoo-1 and, if they did, it is possible that they have seen some oil or gas shows from these sandstones without having actually reached the primary targeted pay zone.

There has been much talk about drilling through the Orubadi shale that is the seal above these Miocene limestones. There may be some oil or gas shows from this shale but it can mostly be disregarded since the shale is not considered to be a reservoir rock. The shale would not produce commercially unless someday we discover that it can be drilled horizontally and fraced. That will be for someone else to worry about as I will not be around when they get that far down the road.

[Thylacine-2]

Petrengr1, Did you notice in the 7/3 RJ "Brief", they said, "It would be rather academic (and, frankly, useless) to talk about anything resembling results before the wells reach total depth and can be tested, so the market will simply need to be patient. That said, these are all multi-Tcf targets, and Raptor has liquids potential in addition to gas.". Also, I feel sure you are aware that on the Raptor slide of the May 14 presentation, and I think others, they indicated, "First test of new trend near Puri-1 oil discovery"; but my impression is that the oil flow there did not last. It seems to me that all this is relevant also to the plans to drill Puri Deep and Kereru Deep on the Raptor trend in the future, as you indicate. I know there's a hesitation to talk about oil at this point, but it's mentioned in previous presentations and apparently is coming up at roadshow presentations and meetings. Any comments you care to make on all this?

I think shareholders would be more patient as MH requested, had we not exceeded HIS target dates without anything but a "be patient speech."  Anyone from IOC using the term patience should be punched in the mouth in my opinion.  I've been patient, others here have been more patient than myself.  Put up or shutup is where I stand, and quite firmly at this point.  Where are the drilling results?  That is a fair question.  I wonder if anyone bothered to ask or if they just genuflected in the presence of the CEO.

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Wow, Judeo!  You getting a little skiddish!  Might as well settle down. We aren't going to get any drilling results until there are drilling results.  That's life in the oil patch.

[jdeo1969]

Petrengr1, Did you notice in the 7/3 RJ "Brief", they said, "It would be rather academic (and, frankly, useless) to talk about anything resembling results before the wells reach total depth and can be tested, so the market will simply need to be patient. That said, these are all multi-Tcf targets, and Raptor has liquids potential in addition to gas.". Also, I feel sure you are aware that on the Raptor slide of the May 14 presentation, and I think others, they indicated, "First test of new trend near Puri-1 oil discovery"; but my impression is that the oil flow there did not last. It seems to me that all this is relevant also to the plans to drill Puri Deep and Kereru Deep on the Raptor trend in the future, as you indicate. I know there's a hesitation to talk about oil at this point, but it's mentioned in previous presentations and apparently is coming up at roadshow presentations and meetings. Any comments you care to make on all this?

I think shareholders would be more patient as MH requested, had we not exceeded HIS target dates without anything but a "be patient speech."  Anyone from IOC using the term patience should be punched in the mouth in my opinion.  I've been patient, others here have been more patient than myself.  Put up or shutup is where I stand, and quite firmly at this point.  Where are the drilling results?  That is a fair question.  I wonder if anyone bothered to ask or if they just genuflected in the presence of the CEO.

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Wow, Judeo!  You getting a little skiddish!  Might as well settle down. We aren't going to get any drilling results until there are drilling results.  That's life in the oil patch.

Not skiddish thy. I just think some micro execution would be welcome here. Mh should know life in the oil patch means you shouldn't put timelines out there to be critiqued when you miss them and don't really give any substantive reason.  on a macro level, yes the changes in company policy are good imo.  But there is no reason to tell us 90 days if you think there is a chance you will miss on delivering in that time frame. Is that skiddish or accurate sir?  I'm no longer an apologist for this company.  I have real money invested and I want the ceo to deliver what he says he will deliver is all. Does that seem like a radical thought to you? Good luck longs

Not skiddish thy. I just think some micro execution would be welcome here. Mh should know life in the oil patch means you shouldn't put timelines out there to be critiqued when you miss them and don't really give any substantive reason.  on a macro level, yes the changes in company policy are good imo.  But there is no reason to tell us 90 days if you think there is a chance you will miss on delivering in that time frame. Is that skiddish or accurate sir?  I'm no longer an apologist for this company.  I have real money invested and I want the ceo to deliver what he says he will deliver is all. Does that seem like a radical thought to you?

Good luck longs

[Indoreservoir]

Petrengr1, Did you notice in the 7/3 RJ "Brief", they said, "It would be rather academic (and, frankly, useless) to talk about anything resembling results before the wells reach total depth and can be tested, so the market will simply need to be patient. That said, these are all multi-Tcf targets, and Raptor has liquids potential in addition to gas.". Also, I feel sure you are aware that on the Raptor slide of the May 14 presentation, and I think others, they indicated, "First test of new trend near Puri-1 oil discovery"; but my impression is that the oil flow there did not last. It seems to me that all this is relevant also to the plans to drill Puri Deep and Kereru Deep on the Raptor trend in the future, as you indicate. I know there's a hesitation to talk about oil at this point, but it's mentioned in previous presentations and apparently is coming up at roadshow presentations and meetings. Any comments you care to make on all this?

I think shareholders would be more patient as MH requested, had we not exceeded HIS target dates without anything but a "be patient speech."  Anyone from IOC using the term patience should be punched in the mouth in my opinion.  I've been patient, others here have been more patient than myself.  Put up or shutup is where I stand, and quite firmly at this point.  Where are the drilling results?  That is a fair question.  I wonder if anyone bothered to ask or if they just genuflected in the presence of the CEO.

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Wow, Judeo!  You getting a little skiddish!  Might as well settle down. We aren't going to get any drilling results until there are drilling results.  That's life in the oil patch.

Not skiddish thy. I just think some micro execution would be welcome here. Mh should know life in the oil patch means you shouldn't put timelines out there to be critiqued when you miss them and don't really give any substantive reason.  on a macro level, yes the changes in company policy are good imo.  But there is no reason to tell us 90 days if you think there is a chance you will miss on delivering in that time frame. Is that skiddish or accurate sir?  I'm no longer an apologist for this company.  I have real money invested and I want the ceo to deliver what he says he will deliver is all. Does that seem like a radical thought to you? Good luck longs

Jdeo,

I'm with you - i want some results.  All we've seen from MH is a botched sell-down and announcemet which cratered the share price, and now 3 out of 3 delayed exploration wells.

This is amateur hour so far, and I'm very concerned about MH's competence.  In a big company like Woodside incompetence can be hidden - not so a small company like IOC.  He's going to have to deliver on promises, not wave hands.

3 out of 3 wells with problems is simply  terrible luck (unlikely) or a problem with the planning/team.  My guess is the team is the problem.  Its not like this is a completely new basin - they've drilled some 9 wells there so they have a pile of data to help plan - somebody has really screwed up is my guess - ON ALL 3 WELLS.  Simply incredible. Heads should roll, and my guess is Total is saying the same.

Lets hope they bumble through and we get some positive results.

GLTAL

Not skiddish thy. I just think some micro execution would be welcome here. Mh should know life in the oil patch means you shouldn't put timelines out there to be critiqued when you miss them and don't really give any substantive reason.  on a macro level, yes the changes in company policy are good imo.  But there is no reason to tell us 90 days if you think there is a chance you will miss on delivering in that time frame. Is that skiddish or accurate sir?  I'm no longer an apologist for this company.  I have real money invested and I want the ceo to deliver what he says he will deliver is all. Does that seem like a radical thought to you?

Good luck longs

[Palm]

1. You're the one who said 1 in 10 and Hession agreed with you. They only have to be 1 of the next 7 to hit your target.
2. These targets were the best 3 identified basically by prior management and Dave Holland whose praises have been sung for years. All of a sudden he's an idiot.
3. Why does Total give a riip about these 3 wells? They have zippo invested in any of them.

[CesiumFormate]

Petrengr1, Did you notice in the 7/3 RJ "Brief", they said, "It would be rather academic (and, frankly, useless) to talk about anything resembling results before the wells reach total depth and can be tested, so the market will simply need to be patient. That said, these are all multi-Tcf targets, and Raptor has liquids potential in addition to gas.". Also, I feel sure you are aware that on the Raptor slide of the May 14 presentation, and I think others, they indicated, "First test of new trend near Puri-1 oil discovery"; but my impression is that the oil flow there did not last. It seems to me that all this is relevant also to the plans to drill Puri Deep and Kereru Deep on the Raptor trend in the future, as you indicate. I know there's a hesitation to talk about oil at this point, but it's mentioned in previous presentations and apparently is coming up at roadshow presentations and meetings. Any comments you care to make on all this?

When we are drilling for oil and gas we look at the drill cuttings to see if we have any oil shows. If we drill through a reservoir rock and the reservoir contains oil then the drill cuttings will have a white or blue fluorescence under a black light. If the reservoir contains wet gas then we may see a fluorescence but to a lesser extent. If the reservoir contains dry gas we may not have any fluorescence in the cuttings. We also monitor the gas in the mud as we are drilling. The mud logger does both of these basic analyses and in this day and time they can do much more sophisticated analyses. Based on what the mud logger sees we may be able to say we have had an oil show or we have had a gas show.

These terms are usually only used for the well being drilled and not for some other well that was drilled on the same trend. I think there may have been some confusion at the road show when Hession or others mentioned that we had seen oil previously (1959) on the Raptor-1 trend when Puri-1 was drilled and produced oil for a few days. He also told people at the road show meeting that we had NOT reached the pay zone on any of the three wells currently being drilled. Base on this I would say we have not had any oil shows and probably no gas shows yet at Raptor-1 and Bob Cat-1. I have previously written that I think there may be some sandstones above the main carbonated pay zone at Wahoo. They could have penetrated some sandstones above the carbonate/limestone pay zone at Wahoo-1 and, if they did, it is possible that they have seen some oil or gas shows from these sandstones without having actually reached the primary targeted pay zone.

There has been much talk about drilling through the Orubadi shale that is the seal above these Miocene limestones. There may be some oil or gas shows from this shale but it can mostly be disregarded since the shale is not considered to be a reservoir rock. The shale would not produce commercially unless someday we discover that it can be drilled horizontally and fraced. That will be for someone else to worry about as I will not be around when they get that far down the road.

In the discussions I was in, Hession stated they had not reached total depth.  There was no mention of whether they were in the pay zone.

CF

[Indoreservoir]

1. You're the one who said 1 in 10 and Hession agreed with you. They only have to be 1 of the next 7 to hit your target. 2. These targets were the best 3 identified basically by prior management and Dave Holland whose praises have been sung for years. All of a sudden he's an idiot. 3. Why does Total give a riip about these 3 wells? They have zippo invested in any of them.

Palm

I said 10-20%, not 1 in 10. And that is not rocket science - look at the history of oil and gas and you know that  those are the numbers.  I gave the board the bloody links to check the facts, but few cared to check. 3 downloads of Rose's seminal paper.  You can lead a horse to water....

I have NO problem with the targets.  The problem is the drilling shows poor planning and execution.  One problem well could be expected, two is possible, but three is 3 strikes and you are out.

Total bought an option to farmin to these PPLs, and want to value that option.  You better believe they care what these wells are doing, and continued delays just  delay the entire project.

Amateur hour.

And if I'm wrong I'll admit it, but for now my money is riding on IOC and I'm worried.  They need to show they can communicate and execute.  On both counts they've failed until now. In fact I'd rate their communications an F - whats wrong with telling the market whats happening on the wells.  Australian companies do it all the time.  And to fall-back on the safety horse____ is ridiculous - ALL oil companies follow safe practices (yes, even BP - mistakes are made) - you don't need to invoke it as an excuse for poor performance, which is exactly what MH did.  Ridiculous.  MH should say 'yes we had problems and here is what they are and here is what we're doing to fix them. but instead gives us a crock of BS about safety   Good grief - he looks like a deer in the headlights, and the market is realizing it.

And selling refining NOW is foolish. IMHO  It gave us cash flow and backup in the event of exploration failure - stability - and now we've lost that UNTIL we have FID.  We're all exploration/development now - a bit risky,  We didn't need the money, so why sell now?  Makes no sense to me, as I thought it was always a backup/reserve if all goes pear-shaped.

This management is scary - a bunch of high-priced big company suits who may have done nothing.  Certainly thats what it looks like from Jakarta.

GLTAL