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The question has been asked, at least by me, following comments and/or figures that indicated that the poster had not read this very informative and valuable report and was not considering or understanding everything they should or could be assisted by the information or analysis in it. It was not just a random question or "debate tool", and, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think anyone has responded in the affirmative yet, which raises further questions. I don't recall asking you, Sam, and probably didn't need to.
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Macquarie says $80 valuation today and doesn't say when that's achieved .
Further they say Interoil is trading at a 65 percent discount to their valuation work .
Lots of unknowns which requires assumptions.
As we check off items completed the discount narrows.
Certification number and payment received are large to be determined numbers. Large swing in the payments. Antelope Deep could be a killer or a dud. Not known.
Current drilling if successful will result in some type sell down of ownership interest. That very well could be the next catalysts if any of the wells succeed.
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Recap of Macquarie Report 6/24/14:
1. Sum of Parts Valuation US$ 82.51
2. 12-month target US$ 80.00 (U$80/sh IOC price target is set at a ~3% discount to our sum-of-parts valuation of
U$82.51/sh)
3. Share price reflects a ~65% risking for a 2 train, 7mtpa LNG development
4. Valuation could drift significantly higher over coming months
5. FID on Antelope LNG could add ~U$22/sh
6. Further U$42/sh added if all four proposed exploration wells are successful (US$10.50/sh per successful well)
7. Valuations assume Elk/Antelope resource of 7.1tcfe
8. Value IOC’s interest in Elk/Antelope at~U$37.85/sh based on a 70% risking;
9. Value IOC’s exploration prospects at ~U$12/sh for the current drilling program;
10. Future resource and milestone payments and government back-in payments adds ~U$14/sh;
11. Refining and distribution segments at ~U$17/sh (pre-sale share valuation)
12. Net cash position and net cash position detracts ~U$2/sh
13. Value IOC’s upstream E&P business at ~U$68/sh (includes above 8-10)
13. Stripping out the refining & distribution segments along with a potential future TOTAL
payment, we estimate IOC is trading on an EV/2C multiple of just U$4.7/boe, which
represents a significant 37% discount. (Important!)
14.The recent refinancing of the U$250m bridge facility with a larger U$300m facility is
positive. With such a large syndicate of banks participating (a further two banks
participated in addition to the original eight banks) lenders are clearly positioning
themselves to participate in a more material project financing facility for an
Elk/Antelope development. (This is a very significant point.)
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I read it twice and I can read type and do math.
Posts: 2,505
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I read "the report" twice and I can read, type and do math.
