PNG wants Total to develop "disputed" gas field

[Putncalls]

The real problem is the uncertainty over the size of the certification payment. These 3 new wells have no bearing on Elk/Antelope and that certification payment. Look closely at the CSFB report and their comments about the second half of 2015. That's when the size of Elk/Antelope is set and the payment generated. Either you believe in the Phil regime asset size talk, believe the GLJ reports,believe the The Knowledge Reservoir report, believe the former CEO of Marathon estimates. believe the Laurie Brown comments or not. The over whelming evidence suggest Elk/Antelope has enough gas for a 2 train LNG plant. And that's exactly what the the analyst reports state. Yes finding new assets outside PRL 15 is bullish but doesn't help with the size of the Total payment. Those new assets if found could yield a new deal for those assets in a new sell down. More reasons to be long Interoil and wait out the drill bit.

JFT:

The new wells cand redeem IOC"s integrity in the market to some extent.

[jft310]

Puts- true Bernstein agrees and sees $10 of price per share increase for each successful well .

[Getitrt2]

I agree with a lot of what's in this thread (though not all, if it matters), but most of all with Trans and Sam. The stock action of IOC recently and this week in particular I don't think provides any support in and of itself for criticism of what's going on at the Company or portends anything about what is coming short-term or long-term. I think it's all about the negative broad market (now affecting major indexes more) and oil prices and energy stocks, and short manipulation taking advantage of it. IOC's close today may have even been a positive sign. It strengthened into the close on increased volume while the market was sinking toward lows for the day.

I agree with JFT and others that the most important component of IOC's value is PRL 15 and its appraisal and certification, both for the purchase payment amounts coming from Total and the LNG present value, as supported by Bernstein and CS. However, I don't think that has had much to do with the pps recently or will have soon, although it can gradually have a positive effect with appraisal progress, arbitration resolution, and the passage of time.

On the other hand I think the pps should get a major assist short-to-intermediate-term from exploration results, both from direct effects on value from empirical results and from improvement in credibility properly cited as an issue by Sam, Putn, and perhaps others, hopefully turning a negative from delays and uncertainty into a positive. The analysts attribute little value to that now, but also cite potential large positive effects from success, although quantification is likely to be difficult to begin with. Furthermore, I see other potentially positive effects on pps beyond those above from new discoveries, especially in light of the Reuters article and PNG comments. New discoveries should increase the certainty of full value from at least two trains and perhaps even more with the Antelope LNG. It also seems to me to support and increase the likelihood of PNG's stated desire for a separate LNG project with Total, while providing other possible sources and increased probability for PNG LNG expansion. All that could be further enhanced in the coming year with positive appraisal results from PRL 39 (Triceratops). None of this is guaranteed, of course, but I like our probabilities, which is what it's all about at this stage; and apparently so do some highly rated institutional and retail analysts and some major institutions and mutual funds. That doesn't mean I'm not getting impatient as hell at this point, with a lot of unanswered questions.

As for some of Nolan's comments, although some posters here sometimes turn out to be overly optimistic, I think it is grossly inappropriate to call any posters I can think of on SHU "pumpers", which denotes a deliberately dishonest process, and which accusations I think may warrant a warning to the accuser. I guess the other extreme from that would be "bashers", or "short bashers", which I've seen plenty of on Yazoo over the years. Imho, I think there have been inaccurate and/or biased postings here in the past more likely to fit that category than the other, but intent/motive vs. honest mistakes can be difficult to ascertain. Also, imho, I think anyone who has sold half his position may be smartly ahead at this point depending on his prices, but depending on when he gets back in may live to regret it, and possibly soon. That, by the way, is not "pumping"; I believe it.

[sydbod]

Well, the funny thing is that if you go back into his previous messages he's always saying we're going lower. It's a curious thing for a long to say with such consistency, but perhaps he's onto a new investment philosophy..

Or perhaps my assumption that he's long is just that, an assumption..

Have I been correct about "into his previous messages he's always saying we're going lower" when I have stated that?

Admin, If you go back through my posts you will see that I did purchase IOC shares, but I only got about 2/3rd of the quantity that I intended to get as the price climbed higher that I wanted to pay. Yes, I am still making a profit on my IOC shares at this time, but not much.

The first rule of investing is "don't lose on an investment because for every 50% loss one has to make a 100% profit to get back to where one started".

I once got totally wiped out on the stock market (1987) and I intend never to go through that experience again. Yes, everything ... 3 houses, cars, all other investments etc. Had a wife, 2 small children and a life totally destroyed. Never Again.

Why have I been so negative with investments lately ... well I have most of my investments in Australia with Australian shares. Here the market is DOWN year to date. Here the market is down even from the usual low point of the end of our financial year June/July till year to date.

Every time your DOW goes up, our ASX may climb just a little bit if that. Every time your Dow goes down, our ASX shits in its pants. No matter how hard I try or how I manipulate my share purchases, in the current environment HERE in Australia (that I know about the investing climate) I can barely break even (am just a little bit down at the moment), and I have no confidence that things wont get worse.

Looking globally, one can see China will have to start stimulation soon because its economy has turned downwards over  the last few months. Europe will have to start  Quantitative Easing very soon also by the way the economy there is going. Australia is on its way down because we are tied to the coat tail of China and Iron Ore prices have come down over 40% this calendar year already. We are also starting to fall over the mining investment cliff here so employment and money will become very tight with unemployment rising.

Global energy consumption has been dropping this year and energy production is starting to outstrip demand (because of deteriorating global economic activity). ALL the major energy producers are trying to do whatever they can to cut costs and make savings because the market as it now stands can not support the increased energy costs that should go with the increase in energy production costs happening now. The oil majors are cutting back on all sorts of spending, just to try and minimize their decrease in profits. They are currently going backwards.

YES, things look to be improving in the good old USA, but in truth the salaries there are not moving ... they are actually falling behind the rate of price inflation in America. That is why the FED is so reluctant to even suggest putting up the interest rate.

Am I being paranoid in my global outlook. Possibly. But I will decrease my holdings in IOC as well as the other oil/gas stock I currently hold (STO , WPL, OSH ). I also plan to make a cut back in my major share portfolio (mainly dividend paying stocks) because I worry that dropping prices in these will not be sufficiently offset by the higher dividends that they pay.

As I have mentioned on previous occasions, I would rather not make as much profit on an investment by being too cautious, rather than making a loss by not being cautious enough.

I hope that clarifies my situation and explains from where my posts come from.

[Kaliboo]

Well, the funny thing is that if you go back into his previous messages he's always saying we're going lower. It's a curious thing for a long to say with such consistency, but perhaps he's onto a new investment philosophy..

Or perhaps my assumption that he's long is just that, an assumption..

Have I been correct about "into his previous messages he's always saying we're going lower" when I have stated that?

Admin, If you go back through my posts you will see that I did purchase IOC shares, but I only got about 2/3rd of the quantity that I intended to get as the price climbed higher that I wanted to pay. Yes, I am still making a profit on my IOC shares at this time, but not much.

The first rule of investing is "don't lose on an investment because for every 50% loss one has to make a 100% profit to get back to where one started".

I once got totally wiped out on the stock market (1987) and I intend never to go through that experience again. Yes, everything ... 3 houses, cars, all other investments etc. Had a wife, 2 small children and a life totally destroyed. Never Again.

Why have I been so negative with investments lately ... well I have most of my investments in Australia with Australian shares. Here the market is DOWN year to date. Here the market is down even from the usual low point of the end of our financial year June/July till year to date.

Every time your DOW goes up, our ASX may climb just a little bit if that. Every time your Dow goes down, our ASX shits in its pants. No matter how hard I try or how I manipulate my share purchases, in the current environment HERE in Australia (that I know about the investing climate) I can barely break even (am just a little bit down at the moment), and I have no confidence that things wont get worse.

Looking globally, one can see China will have to start stimulation soon because its economy has turned downwards over  the last few months. Europe will have to start  Quantitative Easing very soon also by the way the economy there is going. Australia is on its way down because we are tied to the coat tail of China and Iron Ore prices have come down over 40% this calendar year already. We are also starting to fall over the mining investment cliff here so employment and money will become very tight with unemployment rising.

Global energy consumption has been dropping this year and energy production is starting to outstrip demand (because of deteriorating global economic activity). ALL the major energy producers are trying to do whatever they can to cut costs and make savings because the market as it now stands can not support the increased energy costs that should go with the increase in energy production costs happening now. The oil majors are cutting back on all sorts of spending, just to try and minimize their decrease in profits. They are currently going backwards.

YES, things look to be improving in the good old USA, but in truth the salaries there are not moving ... they are actually falling behind the rate of price inflation in America. That is why the FED is so reluctant to even suggest putting up the interest rate.

Am I being paranoid in my global outlook. Possibly. But I will decrease my holdings in IOC as well as the other oil/gas stock I currently hold (STO , WPL, OSH ). I also plan to make a cut back in my major share portfolio (mainly dividend paying stocks) because I worry that dropping prices in these will not be sufficiently offset by the higher dividends that they pay.

As I have mentioned on previous occasions, I would rather not make as much profit on an investment by being too cautious, rather than making a loss by not being cautious enough.

I hope that clarifies my situation and explains from where my posts come from.

You got it right on oil prices, not to mention natural gas in the USA.  Energy has been a self correcting business since it came into being.  High oil prices help to increase drilling activity and production and decrease other economic activity due to high fuel prices.  High fuel prices and slowing economic activity has a double whammy effect on oil demand.  High oil prices are always followed by higher development costs.  So when demand drops, oil prices soon collapse.  Projects are cancelled, mass layoffs occur, companies fold, bankruptcies are common.  But the now cheaper crude and fuel prices become an economic stimulus. Economic activity increases, oil demand increases, oil prices start rising, oil and service companies start hiring again, new projects are proposed, more rigs start drilling and production starts rising again.  And the cycle repeats over and over again, from boom to glut to crash and back to boom.  This last run has been pretty good and it's not over yet.  But getting close.  Costs are way too high and technology is now too good and fast at producing an oversupply.

This time the wild cards are the Russians, Ebola,and the sick economies you mentioned. Also ISIS/ISIL terrorist, to name a few.

[Putncalls]

I think the argument here is which project gets "laid off" last. Five years from now oil prices and NG related technology should give NG some sort of price parity with oil.

Of course this doesn't matter if A/E is an anomaly.

[sydbod]

Putncalls, I have no doubt that E/A will go ahead and that IOC is a good buy for the long term even at the current prices. My problem is that I have no confidence in the whole share market at the moment. Very often I see my share portfolio bouncing up and down by over $20,000 per day. As the down days now happen more often than the up days, and since just 2 down days is equivalent to what I require as my yearly living expenses, it makes my stomach churn. In my humble view, the market is looking for excuses to sell, and I am no longer up to this sort of market turmoil. If I truly were to put my money where my mouth is, then I would liquidate all my shares except for those in communications/internet and in junk food. Tragically I am just human and therefore I am woosing out and hedging my bets by doing half half, keeping half the shares and selling the other half as I don't trust my decision making 100% either.
I do wish you other longs all the luck with your holdings, but for me it is time to book another cruise, get away from the Internet and try to get some peace back into my life.

[jft310]

Leverage is not your friend. Hopefully Syd you learned in 87 the problem with leverage. An unleveraged portfolio behaves quite differently than a levered portfolio. The 5 analyst experts looking at everything think Interoil outperforms the market over the next 12 months.
One of the main reasons is that Total payment which will drive the stock price. Cream can be the new wells and their results if as expected.

[sydbod]

Thanks for that jft.

Strangely, it was not leverage that got me in 87 .... I didn't even know the word.
The first was a case of investing in companies that had great potential but were not producing yet. When markets collapse then these are the first to go. Things like Krinkle Motors and City Resources etc.
The second was by investing in gold and gold producers. The crash came, the price of gold and gold companies shot up. Then over what appeared to be almost overnight people realised they had to sell their gold and gold shares to cover their losses in other investments. Gold tanked big time and took those shares with them. No Internet at that time so I discovered what was happening way too late.
The third was in investing in what I thought were safe blue chip companies that were controlled by entrepreneurs who were praised by all the financial publications (Skase and Bond) who turned out to be crooks when the times became tough.
Funnily enough it was only OSH that still exists from my share portfolio of that time. Yes it took a real beating also, but at least it survived. Even more funny, about 3 months ago I was notified by another company that was restarted from the ashes of that era, and I am now the proud owner of around $20 worth of those shares also, but they are no longer being traded on the stock market.

I still remember saying to myself at the time "be strong in your conviction and the market will eventually correct itself" instead of trying to salvage the last fraction of my wealth when I could see what had happened. You guessed it, I was not prepared to crystallise my losses and slowly, one by one, most of those little stars of mine (those companies) got snuffed out to never be seen again.

Anyway, times have moved on and things may well be different now, but for me the mental scars remain and I will never take the risk of being caught out like that again

Sorry about my ramblings.

[admin]

Well, the funny thing is that if you go back into his previous messages he's always saying we're going lower. It's a curious thing for a long to say with such consistency, but perhaps he's onto a new investment philosophy..

Or perhaps my assumption that he's long is just that, an assumption..

Have I been correct about "into his previous messages he's always saying we're going lower" when I have stated that?

Syd, I wasn't referring to you.