T/A Update

[sydbod]

UGGGGGGggggg!!!!!! stop tempting me..
Palm,
I am already well overweight in the banking sector.
I am scared as hell to jump back into oil/gas sector at the moment. Give me a few more months for things to settle, in this area, so I can analyse things properly.
Industrials are not worth a pinch of sh!t in Australia. They are all closing down or scaling down. Even our car industry is disappearing over the next 2 years.
Mining SUCKS big time because of too much capacity in everything we dig up.
Discretionary spending targeted shares are on their way down with increasing unemployment as well as the transitioning for many of our workers from full time towards part time work. (we are heading into a recession here)
Consumables/staples type shares no longer have any growth potential and are currently a little overpriced.
Real estate is in a bubble and about to bust, and anyway I already have too many flats as it is.

I am just in the wrong country with a little too much free money and no where to bed it down. I know I should be investing more on a global scale, but I don't have enough experience or necessary expertise to be effective in overseas markets. By the time I develop that expertise, it will all be too late for those markets. You guys have no idea how lucky you are being in the U.S. at the moment with its economy starting to climb again.The opportunities you have there .... it makes me jealous of you.

[jft310]

Buy S&P index and wait,

[sydbod]

jft, thanks for that, I was thinking along those lines also. Just a shame it is such a broad fund. Maybe an etf based on "S&P Global 100" might be a solution. Will have to have a good look at this. My cruise starts in 36 hrs so things will have to stay on halt until I return.

[Palm]

Same as I was going to suggest. When the big crash happened I started buying ETFs and mutual funds in March of 2009 to be diversified and ride the wave back up. Nothing wrong with that. O&G may lag for a good while so why not invest in what lets you sleep?

[sydbod]

Glad to see it served you well Palm. Will see if I can do something over the ships Internet should the U.S. market stop falling (might still go down 4% to 5%) over the next few days. My trading accounts normally throw a "hissy fit" when I try to log on with an IP number external from Australia so I normally don't even go online. Can only try.
Anyway ... hope things stabilise and improve for IOC from here on.

[Spartina]

Have a great cruise Syd, from your pals accross the pond.

[trans]

The way I do TA is a bit diff than the media.  I use 2 and 3 day short term strength ratings.  These strength ratings are on numbers released at day's CLOSE.  So they're  still maybe premature, but I want to give a hint of the internals going on.

The strength rating numbers for both 2 and 3 days appear significant building.   There are only three areas where strength ratings were similar and they were significant mkt bottom area that were important low areas.  They are as follows:

November 20, 2008

January 15, 2009

August 18, 2011

I will have to review further, but these numbers present so far today were in significant low areas I believe, maybe not eh exact low

fwiw....trans

that's 6 years of data

Okay, the 2 day strength rating this am is 288.  That's about as good as it gets.   The normal trading buy is in the 230-300+ range, with the higher number marking the bigger bottom areas.  In the 6 year period above, the bottom numbers were 282,306,283,285,305,278,301, and 286  The three day rating this am is 396, with 400+ ratings the high spots

Today's strength rating (after the close) may be even higher, but this indicator concludes that the highest pessimism occurs at the bottoms.......fwiw good luck

[TomCrooz]

The time to buy is when your trembling hand can barely pick up the phone to call your broker. Volatility like this is at the end of trends, not the beginning. Do not wait for a 10% pullback because smart money knows that is what people are expecting and will begin buying before that happens. From the high to the low today, just over 7%. When you start seeing numb nutts predicting a 600 S&P, then I KNOW we are near a bottom.

[TomCrooz]

The time to buy is when your trembling hand can barely pick up the phone to call your broker. Volatility like this is at the end of trends, not the beginning. Do not wait for a 10% pullback because smart money knows that is what people are expecting and will begin buying before that happens. From the high to the low today, just over 7%. When you start seeing numb nutts predicting a 600 S&P, then I KNOW we are near a bottom.

PS  IOC at the 44 area should be as solid as a rock!  If it should fall below that intra day, expect a big reversal to close strongly above.

[Palm]

Great advice Croozer. Once you do the right thing and see that it works, your own fear turns to "greed" in times like this. And trying to pick the exact high or low is impossible. Just buy gradually on the way down and skim some cash when there are some highs to have it ready.