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Mike just wants attention.
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Your not alone on that Art.
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11-07-2014, 05:48 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2014, 07:45 PM by Li'loilady.)
I have no great insight to add, only my "bit"-coin to toss on the scales. On first reading of the PR I thought, well there's not a lot of info to hang one's hat on except: we found some wet gas. That's about it. I appreciated the communication and I don't expect a whole lot more color on this during the conference call. Considering the minimal content, I wasn't expecting this to move the needle much, if at all, and up 2% with a buck 14 is solidly (maybe even on the upper end of) reasonable in my mind. If we had received this report two or more years ago, I would've expected a bigger move, but not within our current context and near term future-determining events.
For obvious reasons, we simply have to wait...some more. There are plenty of reasons to do so. I know...Hrummph!
Buy out? IOC will be a buy out target up to, through and including our first gas sailing away from PNG shores. That's a given. There's no news there.
All IMH(ONSH)O
for our cause
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'ArtM72' pid='51716' dateline='<a href="tel:1415339 Wrote:It is hard to imagine the gas flare is not good news. How good is of course yet to be disclosed. For one, while I welcome announcement of the flare the dearth of information accompanying that news is unfortunate. Why was the flare info released? I like the jungle drum thesis forcing the release. Why no other common data like flow and choke and recovery being available? Anybody's guess. Typical M H.
I was wondering if it was put out in a PR to coordinate with deeper information given to Bernstein folks to cover the arses.
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What might we learn from the information given in yesterday’s PR?
New facts given:
1. Depth 13,229 feet
2. 1,083 feet of open hole.
3. 656 feet of reservoir rock- Kapau limestone
4. 427 feet of non-reservoir rock. Don’t know if this is above or below the limestone.
5. Top of 6” open hole/7” casing shoe is at 12,146 feet.
6. Mid point of open hole 12,688 feet.
7. Gas and Condensate have been “recorded”. What a weak term. I would much prefer “producing”.
8. No mention was made of water (production) being “recorded”.
Now that we know the depth we might make a rough estimate of the reservoir pressure. We can be assured that any gas zone at a depth of 12,688 will be under very high pressure. A normal fresh water gradient for that depth would give the reservoir a pressure of about 5,500 psi. We have been talking for many months about drilling through the “over pressured” Orubadi shale so we can be assured that the pressure is higher than a normal fresh water gradient. They have never given us the mud weight they are using so let’s make a conservative estimate of 11 lb/gal which would say we might expect a reservoir pressure of 7,250 psi. The pressure may well be higher than that.
There has been a lot of hype about how wet the gas is at Antelope which is at about 15 bbl/MMCF. In reality that is not very wet when compared to other gas/condensate reservoirs across the world. Even in PNG the Horizon Fields have a much higher liquid content. Elevala has about 50 Bbl/MMCF, Stanley has something around 24 BBL/MMCF. So what should we expect for liquid content at Raptor-1. It is reasonable to assume that the gas at Raptor-1, which is under much higher pressure and temperature, will have a much higher liquid content than the lower pressure/temperature Antelope Field. I would not be surprised if the liquid content of Raptor-1 is two or more times higher than Antelope which would put it in 30-40 Bbl/MMCF range.
If this test produces no water we will have confirmed a gas column height of at least 656 feet. If we have no water production we will know the gas column extends deeper in the Kapau limestone as well as further down dip. Of course it will also prove the gas column extends up dip to the highest part of the structure.
So what do we need, in addition to the above, to be assured of a commercial discovery? FLOW RATE!! That means we have to have some zones of good porosity and permeability. Even though we have great reservoir pressure and high liquid content we will not have commerciality without a really good flow rate....maybe about 50 MMCFD.
I think if this test produces no water we will be drilling ahead, logging, possibly taking side wall cores and probably running a 5” liner so that we can do more testing inside casing. This will be needed in order to prove the depth of the gas/water contact in this well or prove that it is further down dip beyond this location.
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'petrengr1' pid='51741' datel Wrote:
What might we learn from the information given in yesterday’s PR?
New facts given:
1. Depth 13,229 feet
2. 1,083 feet of open hole.
3. 656 feet of reservoir rock- Kapau limestone
4. 427 feet of non-reservoir rock. Don’t know if this is above or below the limestone.
5. Top of 6” open hole/7” casing shoe is at 12,146 feet.
6. Mid point of open hole 12,688 feet.
7. Gas and Condensate have been “recorded”. What a weak term. I would much prefer “producing”.
8. No mention was made of water (production) being “recorded”.
Now that we know the depth we might make a rough estimate of the reservoir pressure. We can be assured that any gas zone at a depth of 12,688 will be under very high pressure. A normal fresh water gradient for that depth would give the reservoir a pressure of about 5,500 psi. We have been talking for many months about drilling through the “over pressured” Orubadi shale so we can be assured that the pressure is higher than a normal fresh water gradient. They have never given us the mud weight they are using so let’s make a conservative estimate of 11 lb/gal which would say we might expect a reservoir pressure of 7,250 psi. The pressure may well be higher than that.
There has been a lot of hype about how wet the gas is at Antelope which is at about 15 bbl/MMCF. In reality that is not very wet when compared to other gas/condensate reservoirs across the world. Even in PNG the Horizon Fields have a much higher liquid content. Elevala has about 50 Bbl/MMCF, Stanley has something around 24 BBL/MMCF. So what should we expect for liquid content at Raptor-1. It is reasonable to assume that the gas at Raptor-1, which is under much higher pressure and temperature, will have a much higher liquid content than the lower pressure/temperature Antelope Field. I would not be surprised if the liquid content of Raptor-1 is two or more times higher than Antelope which would put it in 30-40 Bbl/MMCF range.
If this test produces no water we will have confirmed a gas column height of at least 656 feet. If we have no water production we will know the gas column extends deeper in the Kapau limestone as well as further down dip. Of course it will also prove the gas column extends up dip to the highest part of the structure.
So what do we need, in addition to the above, to be assured of a commercial discovery? FLOW RATE!! That means we have to have some zones of good porosity and permeability. Even though we have great reservoir pressure and high liquid content we will not have commerciality without a really good flow rate....maybe about 50 MMCFD.
I think if this test produces no water we will be drilling ahead, logging, possibly taking side wall cores and probably running a 5” liner so that we can do more testing inside casing. This will be needed in order to prove the depth of the gas/water contact in this well or prove that it is further down dip beyond this location.
Many thanks for your fine commentary concerning where we are at this time on our Raptor well. We spudded Ant 4 on 9-16-14 I believe. Any comment on this well or am I still a bit too early. Thanks again.
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OK. Here's the edit. How is this preferrable to issued PR? Doesn't even make sense. Only on this MB would a flare of gas/condensates and a gas tank being evaluated be met with scepticism. Some are ecsatic with this PR, some are not. Meanwhile pps flows to surface. 3 of 3 ain't bad.
7. Gas and Condensate have been “recorded”. What a weak term. I would much prefer “producing”.
InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC) (POMSoX: IOC) today announced that gas and condensate have been producing at surface and directed through the flare at the Raptor-1 exploration well site.
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Here's a fact the finding of assets at Raptor greatly increases the odds of an offer to buy after Antelope wells are complete. Based on Interoil's Bobcat and Wahoo comments looks like we are 3 outa 3 for some type well success. Wahoo delayed but has hydrocarbons. If higher pressures mean more permeability then Wahoo is a killer.
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I thought the party line was these wells were a sideshow? Sounds like they matter.
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