Win/Win & Win/Win

[freddiekingman]

The little guy with a Super Major in its corner beats the latest OSH nonsense . No stopping the certification now . Botten will give up now and concede IOC gets its project. OSH wins with the build even if it's a Total build. Cash flow is cash flow .

*****

...and the market doesn't care.  Yet another important, positive, catalyst comes and goes as hoped, without a big pps increase.

...en attendant Godot..

....

[CAC]

CAC - my opinion the move you want in the price per share will happen with receipt of the Total dollars . That receipt using the "de novo "(RJ term ) approach will surprise some with the size estimates . Or what did Henry Aldorf know in 2009 on the UTUBE video about E/A size ?? the CEO of Marathon knew something .. One solution buy more now , wait the required time and sell your higher priced shares capture the tax loss . Use that loss up later . Just a thought . [/quote]

*******

Jft, it is hard for me not to point out that you have predicted great pps gains based on a long, long, long list of "upcoming catalysts" over the last 5 years...and you have been almost universally incorrect. 

If  the TOT payment comes and goes and the pps doesn't greatly increase, history says you will just ignore it, and point us all towards FID, or first construction, or first shipment, or whatever. 

That being said, I would love it if you were right this time. 

[jft310]

What's changed in the last 5 years ?? Everything might be a fair statement . All we can do is take pictures in time of what they tell us .
The price increase is inevitable based on the asset . it will be monetized . The timing is illusive without certainty of the resource size and payment and project design and selection .
It's what all the research reports state . It's how the Wall Street values companies discounted cash flow . Today those are not 100 percent known.
If you believe IOC has enough gas for a 2 train the rise in price will be substantial .
Before FID comes the resource estimate the biggie .

[Getitrt2]

I agree the certification estimates (probably prior to actual payment) would likely be the most important catalyst in the coming year. However, I think there will be other catalysts before then having some effects, as part of an overall uptrend in the stock, in addition to temporary effects from oil prices and the market. I also don't think one should expect effects from news like yesterday to be instantaneous, unless some big surprise. I don't think significant-money investment decisions usually get made that way, or that they typically buy (or sell) all at one time. It does seem to me as of now since this news the stock is outperforming other energy and the market.

[CAC]

I agree the certification estimates (probably prior to actual payment) would likely be the most important catalyst in the coming year. However, I think there will be other catalysts before then having some effects, as part of an overall uptrend in the stock, in addition to temporary effects from oil prices and the market. I also don't think one should expect effects from news like yesterday to be instantaneous, unless some big surprise. I don't think significant-money investment decisions usually get made that way, or that they typically buy (or sell) all at one time. It does seem to me as of now since this news the stock is outperforming other energy and the market.

******

It takes time for the buyers of IOC to buy?  Really?  Every day we see good news move stocks significantly and instantaneously.  It didn't happen for IOC in this case.  Let's acknowledge that reality rather than coming up with some theory to rationalize it away.

Apologists everywhere...

[Palm]

In the past an "event" like this probably would have affected PPS a lot more, but it really shouldn't because in effect we are situation-wise in a similar position as we would be in had OSH not filed the Dispute. If you pull up a 5-year chart on IOC you'll notice something missing over the last year; big spikes in PPS both up and down. I think the only thing that has affected the PPS materially over the last year is the drop in oil prices. So why do we have less volatility? IMHO it's because of the +/- 75% drop in the short interest. When this mgmt. team came aboard one of their goals was to say less (sometimes than they "should") in an attempt to lessen the hold shorts have on the stock. It seems to have worked.

If you lay the PPS chart of a mature energy company like XOM in with IOC's you see a very gradual movement in their PPS and when oil prices started tanking IOC's PPS followed that trend; not exactly, but it's been similar. I hope that as things move forward this year and in the future, IOC's PPS has a more gradual uptick as events happen with the JVOA on EA. Everyone knows for the most part what things ought to happen, so there should be few big surprises as long as things go as planned.

Not saying the PPS won't show more volatility than an XOM, but as long as the short interest stays down, so should the volatility.

In a quick statement, that's my honest opinion. As always, use or flush.

[Thylacine-2]

I agree the certification estimates (probably prior to actual payment) would likely be the most important catalyst in the coming year. However, I think there will be other catalysts before then having some effects, as part of an overall uptrend in the stock, in addition to temporary effects from oil prices and the market. I also don't think one should expect effects from news like yesterday to be instantaneous, unless some big surprise. I don't think significant-money investment decisions usually get made that way, or that they typically buy (or sell) all at one time. It does seem to me as of now since this news the stock is outperforming other energy and the market.

i agree that there will be other catalysts, primarily from drilling results.

[sageo]

I agree the certification estimates (probably prior to actual payment) would likely be the most important catalyst in the coming year. However, I think there will be other catalysts before then having some effects, as part of an overall uptrend in the stock, in addition to temporary effects from oil prices and the market. I also don't think one should expect effects from news like yesterday to be instantaneous, unless some big surprise. I don't think significant-money investment decisions usually get made that way, or that they typically buy (or sell) all at one time. It does seem to me as of now since this news the stock is outperforming other energy and the market.

i agree that there will be other catalysts, primarily from drilling results.

 Thy- Right on,my friend....."drilling results". A short while ago,I was driving over to Scottrade's office to take care of a little business. On my car radio they were playing one of my old favorites, "Smile". My favorite line is " you'll find that life is still worth while,if you'll just smile" ! As I re-read Pet's 2-4-15 post  over the weekend ,(outstanding by the way), I reminisced about his comments on Raptor and Bobcat......[and that's when a big smile crossed my old,weathered face]. Since we hit Raptor on the flank (upside) and Bobcat on the flank (downside), I feel very confident that these two reservoirs are going to enhance our value greatly. Yes, I realize that we haven't had many "smiley" days in the past several years, but then I try to " tighten my belt" and remember another 'golden oldie'....."Our day will come,when we'll have everything" !! What's that you say ? Oh yeah, our day still seems like a heck-of-a long way off,I'll admit. Good luck to you.

[ArtM72]

 When this mgmt. team came aboard one of their goals was to say less (sometimes than they "should" in an attempt to lessen the hold shorts have on the stock. It seems to have worked.

That's a classic, Palm.  I can just see the guy in the pink shirt also saying, "Yeah, the shorts have got us by the nuts.  Let's also try to get rid of them by cutting our stock price in half"." border="0" class="smilie" src="http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/images/smilies/cool.gif" />

[Palm]

Maybe Art, hopefully it's right there with some of your classics. There's no doubt though that in the past yesterday's announcement would have been met with a $2-$3 slide with high volume.