I Voted Today

[weaselpuppy]

That guy is fresh out of souls. Plenty of Pink Shirts, extra security and BS though.

[Getitrt2]

Can any of you voters answer my simple business question? If you are CEO of Total and XOM has made a 3 billion dollar offer, and you really want the gas in Asia at one of the cheapest locations on earth and for 4.4 billion you should win the game. Not only do you win the game, but you do not have to pay 1.7 billion or so to another company. So the real price is 2.7 billion for an asset that will give you at least 20 billion over 20 years and does not even include the other discoveries and acreage. To me I am scratching my head. OK I tried to get the business steal of the century and XOM won't let me walk away so cheaply. Why would I not just ratchet up the bid and save my self a billion or two and win the prize. I have got to be missing something big here. And that investment is peanuts to these companies. So what am I missing ladies and gentleman? Help me get it. SAGEO you worked for the big boys do you have clarity here.

I'll try once again.  First of all, I don't think $3 billion would be the full offer from Exxon.  By acquiring IOC, Exxon would be in position to receive the Certification payment from Total, and there must also be a variable payment or other compensation for IOC shareholders in their bid for it to be superior to the current merger Agreement, reflecting that payment from Total.  Therefore, to top Exxon's bid to IOC shareholders, Total will have to make a bid of some sort that incorporates some value for the Certification payment, which is part of the current value of IOC, and Total will still pay it in some manner, indirectly if not directly to IOC as a Company.  It still is probably worthwhile for Total to make a higher bid, based on what little detail I know.  However, I think the OSH merger would be a great deal for Total, probably a steal, and I think Exxon may have some advantage here, in that they would get not only IOC's interest in PRL 15 and Papua LNG, but cheaply get dominant positions in the other very high potential leases that could provide gas for significant expansion of PNG LNG. On the other hand, if Exxon gets IOC, although Total would still have the larger ownership in PRL 15 and the JV, might Exxon in combination with OSH get Operatorship and more JV control/leverage? That might be powerful incentive for Total to outbid. Hopefully, a real battle will be joined!

I might add, there is not much "simple" about all this, imo.

[Martinistocks]

Yes I tried to boil it down and make it simple and apparently that is not possible.

[ArtM72]

Yes I tried to boil it down and make it simple and apparently that is not possible.

It IS simple.  Vote NO and wait to see what happens. Too many scenarios and too little information to try to outguess anybody's next move. Believe in the resource.  Be encouraged by the uptick in Inda NG imports. Feel sympathy for the OSH discovery team.

Well, maybe not that last one.

[sageo]

Can any of you voters answer my simple business question? If you are CEO of Total and XOM has made a 3 billion dollar offer, and you really want the gas in Asia at one of the cheapest locations on earth and for 4.4 billion you should win the game. Not only do you win the game, but you do not have to pay 1.7 billion or so to another company. So the real price is 2.7 billion for an asset that will give you at least 20 billion over 20 years and does not even include the other discoveries and acreage. To me I am scratching my head. OK I tried to get the business steal of the century and XOM won't let me walk away so cheaply. Why would I not just ratchet up the bid and save my self a billion or two and win the prize. I have got to be missing something big here. And that investment is peanuts to these companies. So what am I missing ladies and gentleman? Help me get it. SAGEO you worked for the big boys do you have clarity here.

I'll try once again.  First of all, I don't think $3 billion would be the full offer from Exxon.  By acquiring IOC, Exxon would be in position to receive the Certification payment from Total, and there must also be a variable payment or other compensation for IOC shareholders in their bid for it to be superior to the current merger Agreement, reflecting that payment from Total.  Therefore, to top Exxon's bid to IOC shareholders, Total will have to make a bid of some sort that incorporates some value for the Certification payment, which is part of the current value of IOC, and Total will still pay it in some manner, indirectly if not directly to IOC as a Company.  It still is probably worthwhile for Total to make a higher bid, based on what little detail I know.  However, I think the OSH merger would be a great deal for Total, probably a steal, and I think Exxon may have some advantage here, in that they would get not only IOC's interest in PRL 15 and Papua LNG, but cheaply get dominant positions in the other very high potential leases that could provide gas for significant expansion of PNG LNG. On the other hand, if Exxon gets IOC, although Total would still have the larger ownership in PRL 15 and the JV, might Exxon in combination with OSH get Operatorship and more JV control/leverage? That might be powerful incentive for Total to outbid. Hopefully, a real battle will be joined!

I might add, there is not much "simple" about all this, imo.

Martini - Good afternoon ! First off, I "second" Getit's "there is not much 'simple' about all of this" . Two giants postureing to see who can "shrewdly" win this gigantic prize (at the lowest price for them.....that gives them bragging rights later on "in this game of chicken....who blinks first ).

Second, Pet likes to tease me occasionly....always brightens my day ! No, I really didn't work for Exxon and I didn't start buying it in 1896 as he laughingly suggests...ha,ha. However,I did start buying it in the late 1960s ( and made more buys over the ensuing years,,,,getting in for almost all their stock splits)  .

Frustrating to say the least, but hoping the" final act" of this drama will reward us with some respectable profits . Have a pleasant weekend .

Thirdly, I believe you have very adroitly summarised where we stand at this junture . At this point,we are kinda' reduced to "standing in the wings" of this current show .

[sageo]

Martini - Please reverse my last two sentences !!  What a computer dummy I am .

[will2bgreat]

Just got a call from Mackenzie about the special shareholders meeting vote.  She asked me if I had received the information on the special meeting and if I had any questions?

I said, "yes, why is IOC being bought out now?  Especially since we have been told by MH that we have a world class gas discovery with plenty of liquidity until certification?  She said she didn't know of which I followed up with, "could it be because MH gets his $30MM+ bonus (and laughed)?  She acknowledged MH's bonus is in the notice and asked if I wanted to vote now.  I said, ok after some discussion and voted NO.

By the way, prior to voting, I asked her why IOC is proceeding with the vote when we have a competing offer from XOM?  She stated that she had heard something about that but didn't have any information.  Interesting indeed.  Is IOC trying to get a read on the vote prior to making any announcements on the XOM offer?

[MartiniStocks9756]

Yes let's shout it from the rooftops.  NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!   Maybe they can get the sentiment.  And if the big boys know what is good for them they should have cast their vote as well.  It is a big no under all scenarios.

[Putncalls]

Yea bit a vote makes no sense?

[Tusker]

Just got a call from Mackenzie about the special shareholders meeting vote.  She asked me if I had received the information on the special meeting and if I had any questions?

I said, "yes, why is IOC being bought out now?  Especially since we have been told by MH that we have a world class gas discovery with plenty of liquidity until certification?  She said she didn't know of which I followed up with, "could it be because MH gets his $30MM+ bonus (and laughed)?  She acknowledged MH's bonus is in the notice and asked if I wanted to vote now.  I said, ok after some discussion and voted NO.

By the way, prior to voting, I asked her why IOC is proceeding with the vote when we have a competing offer from XOM?  She stated that she had heard something about that but didn't have any information.  Interesting indeed.  Is IOC trying to get a read on the vote prior to making any announcements on the XOM offer?

"...had heard something about that but didn't have any information."  Detect the counterdiction?