Serious Reality Check coming

[ValueSleuth]

With the high probability that William Duma will be in a position to torment InterOil (no surprises coming in the major ministries) IF he so choses, all current IOC holders AND company management are in for a reality check in the coming days.

The first public comments out of Duma's mouth on the Gulf LNG project are likely to strongly affect the perception of what is likely to happen going forward -- at least in the short run.

We all should sincerely hope that various comments that have emanated from InterOil management to the effect that they can work with anybody in PNG are borne out, because things could well be quite surly between a retained Duma and XOM (remember the scathing indictments of DPE and Duma), if Duma exercises new powers.

Before we hear another word about O'Neill's ability to control Duma, et al, due to his smashing election, please get realistic.  Have all these politicians REALLY changed their stripes and ceded all their "flexibility" to O'Neill's supposed "support" for the Gulf LNG project.  So far, all we've heard are words -- talk.  Let's see the deeds.  Let's see what they DO vs. what they say.

Await William Duma's first statements on the Gulf LNG project with great anticipation.

Following that, InterOil will have the "opportunity" to put forth their allegedly already chosen SM operator and SD candidates for DPE/NEC approval -- and gain gov't approval of the already announced PRE farm-out.

Smooth sailing ahead?  Wanna' bet?

Connect the dots.

VS

PS  There's going to be an initial stock market reaction to the Duma news.  It is likely to be a "buying opportunity."

PPS  What kind of "happy face" will IOC present in the upcoming 2Q CC?

[Tree]

With the high probability that William Duma will be in a position to torment InterOil (no surprises coming in the major ministries) IF he so choses, all current IOC holders AND company management are in for a reality check in the coming days.

The first public comments out of Duma's mouth on the Gulf LNG project are likely to strongly affect the perception of what is likely to happen going forward -- at least in the short run.

We all should sincerely hope that various comments that have emanated from InterOil management to the effect that they can work with anybody in PNG are borne out, because things could well be quite surly between a retained Duma and XOM (remember the scathing indictments of DPE and Duma), if Duma exercises new powers.

Before we hear another word about O'Neill's ability to control Duma, et al, due to his smashing election, please get realistic.  Have all these politicians REALLY changed their stripes and ceded all their "flexibility" to O'Neill's supposed "support" for the Gulf LNG project.  So far, all we've heard are words -- talk.  Let's see the deeds.  Let's see what they DO vs. what they say.

Await William Duma's first statements on the Gulf LNG project with great anticipation.

Following that, InterOil will have the "opportunity" to put forth their allegedly already chosen SM operator and SD candidates for DPE/NEC approval -- and gain gov't approval of the already announced PRE farm-out.

Smooth sailing ahead?  Wanna' bet?

Connect the dots.

VS

PS  There's going to be an initial stock market reaction to the Duma news.  It is likely to be a "buying opportunity."

PPS  What kind of "happy face" will IOC present in the upcoming 2Q CC?

I see you are surprised and disappointed about Duma likely returning.

It has been obvious since Duma joined O'Neill's coallition last week that Duma would be DPE Minister if HE WANTED that job.  That eventuallity did not tank pps.   If you fear Duma, you need to fear O'Neill and all of Parliament and RC, the bigs and IOC management show no hint of that.

Last fall, Duma/O'Neill returned IOC to the 2009 PA and away from a Somare/Duma approved Gulf LNG with EWC/Flex.  Fair enough - Big bad Duma will continue to hold IOC to their contractual obligations in the 2009 PA of a bigger start-up and recognized operator.  Duma in fact, publicly stated the move to Gulf Province was approved, that isn't obstructionist talk.  O'Neill is like minded, as he should be, adhere to 2009 PA.  PNG is broke, departments will be eliminated and PNG needs as much revenue as soon as posible.  I wouldn't be surprised if Petromin sells all or most of their E/A stake to a SM just to fund their Gov't.

As always, the success of this project is up to IOC.  IOC needs to deliver a proposal compliant to 2009 PA to develop LNG facilities before next June.  It's up to IOC to do so, Duma will not obstruct a legal path to development IOC proposes.   If he obstructs a legal proposal, no doubt he will be replaced as Foreign Investors will take note and move elsewhere.

The dot's are connected and Duma's first comments will reiterate IOC's responsibility to adhere to the PA.  If some retailers  freak out and provide me a buying opp, then bless their foolish hearts.

ps.  IOC is now too far down the road committed to a large traditional LNG plant in the Gulf to return to FLEX/EWC as start-up.  You cannot commit to a conventional large plant scheme w/o SM or JKM involvement.  This is very good.  IOC maintains no re-injection of nattie in the Gulf so where will that dried gas go??

[kerekesc]

Tree, It has been obvious that since Amud joined O'Neill's coallition last week that the dynamics of the previous caretaker government has changed significantly.  Amud saw this changed and asked to join the government.  He was told what the requirements were, and that the coallition partners would decide.  This pertained to Nahma as well.  O'Neill is on record wanting the 2009 agreement kept.  IOC is on record that it is committed to the 2009 agreement.  In fact, they stated that they are prepared to bring the project to FID.  They are merely waiting for the political situation to stabilize in order that they can obtain the formal approvals.  As you say, the dots are connected and the project will soon be a reality.  Those who are connecting the old dots are out of sync and functioning in another relm.

[Justin94360]

Peter O’Neill’s 2012-2017 Cabinet
http://garamut.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/...cabinet-2/

After a brief wait, Prime Minister Peter O’Neill has finally revealed his 33-Member National Executive Council (NEC) – or Cabinet.

The line up is heavily dominated by O’Neill’s winning People’s National Congress which boasts 13 Ministers. This is followed by Don Polye’s THE Party which has 4; William Duma’s United Resources Party has 3.

Patrick Pruaitch’s National Alliance, Sir Julius Chan’s People’s Progress Party, and Peter Ipatas’ People’s Party all have 2 Ministers each; and Our Development Party, United Party, People’s Indigenous Party, People’s Democratic Movement, and Social Democratic Party are all represented by 1 Ministerial post each.

Rounding up the 33 are 2 candidates who ran as Independents in PNG Election 2012 – Hon Richard Maru and Hon Kerenga Kua.

Of the 33, only one is a woman – Hon Loujaya Toni of Lae takes over Dame Carol Kidu’s old portfolio, Community Development.

In addition, it is interesting to note that of the 33, ten are first term MPs while eleven have served three terms or more in the Haus Tambaran. The remaining twelve are all in their second term.

Geographically, 10 are from the Highlands Region; 10 are from Southern; 8 are from Momase; and 5 are from New Guinea Islands. ‘Regionalism’ has again played a part in the decision-making of O’Neill and his coalition partners.

There are six party leaders in the 33, with three others – Sir Julius Chan (PPP), Paias Wingti (PDM) and Peter Ipatas (PP) – all opting to not push their claim to Ministerial portfolios, but instead have nominated younger MPs to take their places.

Here are the 33 – I’ve listed them very loosely in what I perceive to be the pecking order based on their experience, background and standing in their respective political parties:

Peter O’Neill (PNC) – 3rd Term; Ialibu-Pangia Open
Leo Dion (THE) – 3rd Term; East New Britain Provincial
Don Polye (THE) – 3rd Term; Kandep Open
Dr Puka Temu (ODP) – 3rd Term; Abau Open
William Duma (URP) – 3rd Term; Mt Hagen Open
Patrick Pruaitch (NA) – 3rd Term; Aitape-Lumi Open
Charles Abel (PNC) – 2nd Term; Alotau Open
James Marape (PNC) – 2nd Term; Tari Open
John Pundari (PP) – 2nd Term; Kompiam-Ambum Open
Mao Zemming (PNC) – 4th Term; Tewai-Siassi Open
Ben Micah (PPP) – 3rd Term; Kavieng Open
Rimbink Pato (UP) – 1st Term; Wapenamanda Open
Byron Chan (PPP) – 3rd Term; Namatanai Open
Jimmy Miringtoro (PNC) – 2nd Term; South Bougainville Open
Francis Awesa (PNC) – 2nd Term; Imbonggu Open
Ano Pala (PNC) – 2nd Term; Rigo Open
Benny Allan (PNC) – 3rd Term; Unggai-Bena Open
Mark Maipaikai (THE) – 3rd Term; Kikori Open
Loujaya Open (PIP) – 1st Term; Lae Open
Boka Kondra (PNC) – 2nd Term; North Fly Open
Paru Aihi (PNC) – 2nd Term; Kairuku-Hiri Open
Steven Kamma (URP) – 2nd Term; Central Bougainville Open
David Arore (THE) – 2nd Term; Ijivitari Open
Jim Samatab (NA) – 2nd Term; Wewak Open
Dr Fabian Pok (URP) – 2nd Term; North Waghi Open
Micheal Malabag (PNC) – 1st Term; Moresby North West Open
Richard Maru (Independent) – 1st Term; Yangoru-Saussia Open
Kerenga Kua (Independent) – 1st Term; Sinasina-Yongomugl Open
Davis Stephen (PP) – 1st Term; Esa’ala Open
Nixon Duban (PNC) – 1st Term; Madang Open
Tommy Tomscoll (PDM) – 1st Term; Middle Ramu Open
Paul Isikiel (PNC) – 1st Term; Markham Open
Justin Tkatchenko (SDP) – 1st Term; Moresby South Open

[admin]

Relax people, I feel his bark (distorted by PNG press anyway) is way worse than his bite..

[ValueSleuth]

If, as reported by jft310,  it is true that Duma is OUT, this is SPECTACULAR NEWS.  This type of announcement smacks of the way the Somare situation was handled.  Interesting.

I'll await general confirmation before commenting further on the reality check.

VS

[ValueSleuth]

With the high probability that William Duma will be in a position to torment InterOil (no surprises coming in the major ministries) IF he so choses, all current IOC holders AND company management are in for a reality check in the coming days.

The first public comments out of Duma's mouth on the Gulf LNG project are likely to strongly affect the perception of what is likely to happen going forward -- at least in the short run.

We all should sincerely hope that various comments that have emanated from InterOil management to the effect that they can work with anybody in PNG are borne out, because things could well be quite surly between a retained Duma and XOM (remember the scathing indictments of DPE and Duma), if Duma exercises new powers.

Before we hear another word about O'Neill's ability to control Duma, et al, due to his smashing election, please get realistic.  Have all these politicians REALLY changed their stripes and ceded all their "flexibility" to O'Neill's supposed "support" for the Gulf LNG project.  So far, all we've heard are words -- talk.  Let's see the deeds.  Let's see what they DO vs. what they say.

Await William Duma's first statements on the Gulf LNG project with great anticipation.

Following that, InterOil will have the "opportunity" to put forth their allegedly already chosen SM operator and SD candidates for DPE/NEC approval -- and gain gov't approval of the already announced PRE farm-out.

Smooth sailing ahead?  Wanna' bet?

Connect the dots.

VS

PS  There's going to be an initial stock market reaction to the Duma news.  It is likely to be a "buying opportunity."

PPS  What kind of "happy face" will IOC present in the upcoming 2Q CC?

With Duma apparently back in, I reiterate this post.

What will Duma say first and what will IOC then do?

VS

[admin]

Value, while I have no clue what he will say or do, I know a couple of things.
- The election changed the arithmetic, gone is O'Neill dependence on Duma and his party
- PM backed IOC strongly and publicly
- InterOil says they have bidders complying with the 2009 agreement
- PNG benefits from the project to go ahead
- Big whales haven't sold, even today there isn't (at least so far) a run for the exit.

Now, that's no iron clad guarantee that things will be smooth from here onwards, but it makes me feel pretty comfortable, for what that is worth.

[Palm]

Agree stp. If one looks at a few stories and blogs one huge issue right now is that there are a lot of PNG nationals who have been working on the PNG LNG project who have been told their work will be winding down soon and they are upset that there appears to be nothing for them to move on to. Last thing gov needs is great labor angst as they form the new government. Announcing IOC's project quickly would help that worry fade. Mr Duma has a chance to be a hero and start mending his reputation as being ineffective and part of the old corrupt leadership. By acting quickly he can make good first impression.

[jft310]

All those workers can build an exact duplicate of the PNGLNG plant in Gulf with IOC's new partner Exxon. This is the strongest name associated today.Could Shell out bid em well yes. Will they I don't think so.its exciting boys and girls.!!
Duma appears back in but he lost his genitals to get the job.