'maui4marko' pid='56328' datel Wrote:While we wait for news coming out of the 2014 AGM, this is speculation about where the share price *could* be in 3-5 years. Pump Alert for Monk.
Officially known as Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, Tongling has agreed to purchase 1.1 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) of ore mined from Sol1, plus or minus 20%. With Nautilus' plans to mine a minimum of 1.1 MTPA per year, the "plus or minus 20%" really means only plus 20%.
With planned daily mine production of 3,200 to 3,600 tonnes, Sol1's minimum target equals the base agreement of 1.1 MTPA (3,200 x 365 = 1,168,000) while the maximum equates to +20% of the base for 1.3 MTPA (3,600 x 365 = 1,314,000). See the Seafloor Gold & Copper Exploration thread that establishes a value of $696 per tonne for Sol1 ore ($1,949M resource value divided by 2.8 MT indicated and inferred Sol 1&12 resources).
With a minimum daily gross revenue of over $2M (3,200 x $696 = $2,227,200) those $200K daily vessel rates don't look so bad lol. And when Nautilus tunes the mining process and improves to their maximum Sol1 mining production rate, they will be grossing $2.5M per day. And even better Tongling will pay 90% of each load's value immediately upon offloading from Nautilus vessel onto Tongling's ore carrier. Talk about fast monetization! It just doesn't get any better than that.
Or does it? Remember Sol1 is just the first mine site. We've got dozens more in PNG alone, and dozens of confirmed and potential jurisdications beyond that (CCV anyone?).
Base case of $2M per day x 365 mining days per year = $800M+ per year revenue (3,200 x $696 x 365 = $812,928,000). With the current price per share of $0.41USD, that would imply a PE of 0.115 ($0.41 price divided by earnings per share ($813M / 228.8M shares). To get to a PE multiple of 10x the Nautilis share price would have to rise an incredible 86 times to a share price of $35.
So in the likely event of a "+20% Tongling scenario" Nautilus could be valued at an unbelievable $40 per share. At today's depressed copper and gold prices, 10x PE, and Sol 1&12 only.
In 5 years we can easily get to $100 with some or all of: higher commodity prices, improved productivity/lower mining costs, 2nd vessel & mining tools and PNG tenement. Add additional future mines in other countries, first mover advantage, self-financed growth, huge cost advantage over land-based mining, 70% of the globe vs. today's 30% for land only...
Apologies for the pumper-style post, but every time I do the math I get goose bumps (chicken skin in Hawaii lol).
Please check my math.
Maui do you think this is still possible?
