(10-09-2014, 12:36 AM)jdeo1969 Wrote:
What OSH has "essentially validated" is what Total is paying, but they have not supported or "validated" the GLJ estimates. It's not hard to agree "there is something wrong with that picture", i.e. the "share price". However, is there something you think is behind that besides the problems and extended delays in completing the exploration wells, the uncertainty of the dispute with OSH, and the recent negative pressure from the market, oil prices, and energy stocks in general accompanied by short manipulation?
I would agree with that assessment Getit. My larger point was that wa sOSH was willing to pay supports the higher estimates and in spite of that we are at levels where the market valued the Total deal initially. I think the psychology of waiting for the payday has something to do with the weakness as well. IOC has not been a stock that typically follows sector behaviors in my recollection. We need some good news!
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I agree we need some good news, actually some REALLY good news apparently! I guess you're saying OSH's higher up front fixed payment supports the higher estimates. However, they both provided for contingent payments on higher estimates, and the stock got higher since the OSH deal, only to come back down for other reasons. It also seems that the market is just not rational at times like this and moves get exaggerated.
PS: The first paragraph above was written by me, not jdeo, and quoted by him without quotation marks.