On the bright side

[SamAdams]

[quote='Spartina' pid='50598' dateline='1412733686'] Cyber it's all about perspective, go back 6 years, then go back 15 years. [/quote

True.  Or go back a little over 10 months.

[Spartina]

True Sam. I just feel so sure that our best years are right around the corner.

[Gator]

Let's compare IOC to the XOP and Hession's former employer Woodside since Hession became CEO. A picture is wort a thousand words.

[admin]

I think we can safely say that most of the underperformance on that time span is produced by the market reaction to the deal with Total. Now, while perhaps the $/Mcf was lower than what was expected, there is still the possibility that this will turn out ok:

- Appraisal of E/A. I remember the stories about people arguing Total thought there was only 5 Tcf.

- Additional finds. Yes, the drilling is excruciatingly slow, but sooner or later they will get there..

Add in the uncertainty caused by OSH's claims and it's no terrible surprise..

[jdeo1969]

I think we can safely say that most of the underperformance on that time span is produced by the market reaction to the deal with Total. Now, while perhaps the $/Mcf was lower than what was expected, there is still the possibility that this will turn out ok: - Appraisal of E/A. I remember the stories about people arguing Total thought there was only 5 Tcf. - Additional finds. Yes, the drilling is excruciatingly slow, but sooner or later they will get there.. Add in the uncertainty caused by OSH's claims and it's no terrible surprise..

"There is still the possibility that this will turn out ok" is not terribly reassuring.

To be completely fair, since the awful rollout of the deal, OSH has essentially validated what they believe is there paying real dollars for their share.   SO even with that Hession has managed to allow the share price to drift to levels not seen since the massive sell off after the deal was announced with the market assuming that there was roughly 30 to 40% less gas than we now can realistically valuate.  There is something wrong with that picture in my opinion.

[admin]

Reassuring or not, we have GLJ arguing there is 9Tcf+ and no new info that either disproves that or confirms that so the situation hasn't really changed with respect to that.

They're already drilling one well in Antelope and this should be more familiar terrain for them so I would be surprised if we get the same problems plaguing the new prospects.

That well will give clues, but it won't settle the issue, but next year they will.

[Getitrt2]

I think we can safely say that most of the underperformance on that time span is produced by the market reaction to the deal with Total. Now, while perhaps the $/Mcf was lower than what was expected, there is still the possibility that this will turn out ok: - Appraisal of E/A. I remember the stories about people arguing Total thought there was only 5 Tcf. - Additional finds. Yes, the drilling is excruciatingly slow, but sooner or later they will get there.. Add in the uncertainty caused by OSH's claims and it's no terrible surprise..

"There is still the possibility that this will turn out ok" is not terribly reassuring.

To be completely fair, since the awful rollout of the deal, OSH has essentially validated what they believe is there paying real dollars for their share.   SO even with that Hession has managed to allow the share price to drift to levels not seen since the massive sell off after the deal was announced with the market assuming that there was roughly 30 to 40% less gas than we now can realistically valuate.  There is something wrong with that picture in my opinion.

What OSH has "essentially validated" is what Total is paying, but they have not supported or "validated" the GLJ estimates.  It's not hard to agree "there is something wrong with that picture", i.e. the "share price".  However, is there something you think is behind that besides the problems and extended delays in completing the exploration wells, the uncertainty of the dispute with OSH, and the recent negative pressure from the market, oil prices, and energy stocks in general accompanied by short manipulation?

[jdeo1969]

What OSH has "essentially validated" is what Total is paying, but they have not supported or "validated" the GLJ estimates.  It's not hard to agree "there is something wrong with that picture", i.e. the "share price".  However, is there something you think is behind that besides the problems and extended delays in completing the exploration wells, the uncertainty of the dispute with OSH, and the recent negative pressure from the market, oil prices, and energy stocks in general accompanied by short manipulation?

[/quote]

I would agree with that assessment Getit.  My larger point was that wa sOSH was willing to pay supports the higher estimates and in spite of that we are at levels where the market valued the Total deal initially.  I think the psychology of waiting for the payday has something to do with the weakness as well.  IOC has not been a stock that typically follows sector behaviors in my recollection.  We need some good news!

[Getitrt2]

What OSH has "essentially validated" is what Total is paying, but they have not supported or "validated" the GLJ estimates.  It's not hard to agree "there is something wrong with that picture", i.e. the "share price".  However, is there something you think is behind that besides the problems and extended delays in completing the exploration wells, the uncertainty of the dispute with OSH, and the recent negative pressure from the market, oil prices, and energy stocks in general accompanied by short manipulation?

I would agree with that assessment Getit.  My larger point was that wa sOSH was willing to pay supports the higher estimates and in spite of that we are at levels where the market valued the Total deal initially.  I think the psychology of waiting for the payday has something to do with the weakness as well.  IOC has not been a stock that typically follows sector behaviors in my recollection.  We need some good news!

[/quote]

I agree we need some good news, actually some REALLY good news apparently!  I guess you're saying OSH's higher up front fixed payment supports the higher estimates.  However, they both provided for contingent payments on higher estimates, and the stock got higher since the OSH deal, only to come back down for other reasons.  It also seems that the market is just not rational at times like this and moves get exaggerated.

PS: The first paragraph above was written by me, not jdeo, and quoted by him without quotation marks.

[jdeo1969]

What OSH has "essentially validated" is what Total is paying, but they have not supported or "validated" the GLJ estimates.  It's not hard to agree "there is something wrong with that picture", i.e. the "share price".  However, is there something you think is behind that besides the problems and extended delays in completing the exploration wells, the uncertainty of the dispute with OSH, and the recent negative pressure from the market, oil prices, and energy stocks in general accompanied by short manipulation?

I would agree with that assessment Getit.  My larger point was that wa sOSH was willing to pay supports the higher estimates and in spite of that we are at levels where the market valued the Total deal initially.  I think the psychology of waiting for the payday has something to do with the weakness as well.  IOC has not been a stock that typically follows sector behaviors in my recollection.  We need some good news!

I agree we need some good news, actually some REALLY good news apparently!  I guess you're saying OSH's higher up front fixed payment supports the higher estimates.  However, they both provided for contingent payments on higher estimates, and the stock got higher since the OSH deal, only to come back down for other reasons.  It also seems that the market is just not rational at times like this and moves get exaggerated.

PS: The first paragraph above was written by me, not jdeo, and quoted by him without quotation marks. [/quote]

Agreed.