XOM or RDS buyout

[Palm]

At these valuations Total and Oil Search must be discussing a buyout and IOC may be the "golden goose in the cage" alluded to in a previous post. The price that would get it done may depend on where Chandler and Paulsen are made whole plus a little bonus. Guessing the institutional shareholders that remain and any new longs would seriously consider a nice round number like $100 that is now being thrown around. It could get done rather quickly, with no one to put up much resistance they would essentially be negotiating with themselves and no one loses money. A Total led consortium could get the whole enchilada for the same top end price as 42.5% of PRL 15 that Total was already prepared to pay by themselves. All IMHO but just sayin'.

"must be discussing a buyout"; Quite a reach with that as well as what Chandler and others might accept.  No way of guessing what they might accept.  Since we are guessing, I'd guess especially Chandler is looking for more than $100, just because "it's a nice round number".

You are correct. Guess was the wrong word.  It was an opinion that Total may now be in a position to buy IOC.  If Total can bid for the entire company for an amount within the range that they may have to fork over to own 47.5% of PRL 15 it should be on their mind.  $110 is $5.3 billion which we know is certainly within their reach.  If it's being discussed on SHU it is well within reason that it has occurred to someone at Total. How many longs expected last Thursday we would be at $60 after a deal announcement? A logical answer is not Chandler or Paulson or any of the mutual funds, all of whom are likely in the process of adjusting their expectations while they catch their breath. I don't know what Chandler or any other major holder would accept but 14 million shares have changed hands the last two days at or below $60.  At what price are those buyers willing to sell?  $101, $121, $131?  Any of those figures are a very handsome return for a short term investment. I have been a patient long for years and have followed the bouncing ball closely. I have seen many long term projections and believe Hession is on the right track but it is no great leap that last Friday put the company within reach for a Total led consortium if they are so inclined. The window may close quickly but the opening is there, IMHO.

Right on. I couldn't agree more. The more I ruminate on the IOC shareholders conundrum the more a bid seems inevitable. And Shell might choose to fuel a fire that could light up the Paris sky.

Wonder who dials first: Duma, Chandler, Paulson or Total or even Shell. This long running morning soap can't go on forever. The players become too old and haggard.

With incredulity I ask: Is now the time it finally ends?

If I am being completely honest I hope so. Even though I believe Tilson is delusional regarding his resource figures and he is corrupt in his campaign against IOC the fact remains that we are trading at $59 after the transformational deal we have been waiting for all these years. The answer to the conumdrum seems clear if a reasonable offer is made and it would only take a booth at Ruth Chris to have enough shareholders to approve a deal.  If we are on the right track let's hope RDS drives up the price. GLTA.

Truth is we are at $59 after a partial transformational deal that  is still being finalized.  We don't know yet who the possible strategic partner(s) might end up being.  We don't know yet how the IPI investors will be compensated (this is still in process and I don't think it it has to be assumed that they will be compensated with a 100% share issuance; more on that later), and we don't know what the JVOA looks like yet (very possibly because of any possible strategic partner(s) to be brought in).  For instance will the JVOA include a CSP much sooner than at the time when the LNG plant is commissioned? Still several very big factors to be finalized yet before we can say we have THE "transformational deal".  The most reasonable skeptics are using the most conservative assumptions and that's why we are where we are.  However, let's see where things end up and the lady with the big appetite serenades us.