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If I were RDS I may want to wait a few months to see what peters out with the drilling before making a bid. Why do it now? My guess is not bid yet.
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I don't know what Chandler or any other major holder would accept but 14 million shares have changed hands the last two days at or below $60. At what price are those buyers willing to sell? $101, $121, $131? Any of those figures are a very handsome return for a short term investment. I have been a patient long for years and have followed the bouncing ball closely. I have seen many long term projections and believe Hession is on the right track but it is no great leap that last Friday put the company within reach for a Total led consortium if they are so inclined. The window may close quickly but the opening is there, IMHO.
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Let's remember that one SM will not let another get away with a steal. Numbers from $101 - $131 are likely too low to be the final buyout number once other bidders enter the fray. Our poll last spring/summer came out to an average number around $280 to make SHU members "happy." I doubt we would get anywhere near that, but I a final number near $100 also seems quite unlikely, despite today's pps. Ironically (and sadly for many here), it might be this truly high intrinsic value that keeps any takeover from happening even at these levels, as despite whatever low initial bids seems to make sense, the buyout price probably rises dramatically, thus scaring everyone off from even trying to buy the company on the cheap.
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Movie - I refer you to the history of Cove Energy that rose 4 fold in 9 months with Super Majors bidding.
The question is how large is the resource and where's the oil? Those are the questions this 4-5 rig drilling program are trying to
firm up.
No one will steal IOC because all the Super Majors have the data. A low ball offer for all of IOC would start a bidding war .
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.... would start a bidding war. It is precisely that, how to start a bidding war, that is foremost on Chandler's mind at this time. Embarrassing to be part of a "super major" deal that leaves your money tied up and way underwater for a long and indefinite period of time. Safe to say that he is infuriated..... and about to be courted.
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'streamingeagle88' pid='33778' datel Wrote:
.... would start a bidding war. It is precisely that, how to start a bidding war, that is foremost on Chandler's mind at this time. Embarrassing to be part of a "super major" deal that leaves your money tied up and way underwater for a long and indefinite period of time. Safe to say that he is infuriated..... and about to be courted.
How do you court someone prior to a bidding war? Basically all Chandler can say to any bid, high or low, is I accept your offer . . . unless someone bids more. Given that the fear of a bidding war is possibly scaring off all bidders, I wish it was possible for one bidder to make a reasonably fair offer and have that accepted. I would love a Cove Energy redux, JFT, but given the events of Friday, I don't see that kind of upside happening.
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Movie- Friday Mr Market made irrational decisions off wrong information. That bad info was deliberately planted. The truth will
come out and to think those Super Major can't read a SPA and see what value IOC offers are emotional arguements.
Just need one Super Major bid most likely Shell and the bidding war starts . Where we start the bidding has no regard from
where we end up . The question is who wants the resource the most.???who can afford to let it slip away!
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'streamingeagle88' pid='33767' datel Wrote:
'mikesioc' pid='33766' datel Wrote:
'Palm' pid='33736' datel Wrote:
'mikesioc' pid='33733' datel Wrote:At these valuations Total and Oil Search must be discussing a buyout and IOC may be the "golden goose in the cage" alluded to in a previous post. The price that would get it done may depend on where Chandler and Paulsen are made whole plus a little bonus. Guessing the institutional shareholders that remain and any new longs would seriously consider a nice round number like $100 that is now being thrown around. It could get done rather quickly, with no one to put up much resistance they would essentially be negotiating with themselves and no one loses money. A Total led consortium could get the whole enchilada for the same top end price as 42.5% of PRL 15 that Total was already prepared to pay by themselves. All IMHO but just sayin'.
"must be discussing a buyout"; Quite a reach with that as well as what Chandler and others might accept. No way of guessing what they might accept. Since we are guessing, I'd guess especially Chandler is looking for more than $100, just because "it's a nice round number".
You are correct. Guess was the wrong word. It was an opinion that Total may now be in a position to buy IOC. If Total can bid for the entire company for an amount within the range that they may have to fork over to own 47.5% of PRL 15 it should be on their mind. $110 is $5.3 billion which we know is certainly within their reach. If it's being discussed on SHU it is well within reason that it has occurred to someone at Total. How many longs expected last Thursday we would be at $60 after a deal announcement? A logical answer is not Chandler or Paulson or any of the mutual funds, all of whom are likely in the process of adjusting their expectations while they catch their breath. I don't know what Chandler or any other major holder would accept but 14 million shares have changed hands the last two days at or below $60. At what price are those buyers willing to sell? $101, $121, $131? Any of those figures are a very handsome return for a short term investment. I have been a patient long for years and have followed the bouncing ball closely. I have seen many long term projections and believe Hession is on the right track but it is no great leap that last Friday put the company within reach for a Total led consortium if they are so inclined. The window may close quickly but the opening is there, IMHO.
Right on. I couldn't agree more. The more I ruminate on the IOC shareholders conundrum the more a bid seems inevitable. And Shell might choose to fuel a fire that could light up the Paris sky.
Wonder who dials first: Duma, Chandler, Paulson or Total or even Shell. This long running morning soap can't go on forever. The players become too old and haggard.
With incredulity I ask: Is now the time it finally ends?
If I am being completely honest I hope so. Even though I believe Tilson is delusional regarding his resource figures and he is corrupt in his campaign against IOC the fact remains that we are trading at $59 after the transformational deal we have been waiting for all these years. The answer to the conumdrum seems clear if a reasonable offer is made and it would only take a booth at Ruth Chris to have enough shareholders to approve a deal. If we are on the right track let's hope RDS drives up the price. GLTA.
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12-11-2013, 03:42 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2013, 03:44 AM by Palm.)
(12-11-2013, 03:29 AM)mikesioc Wrote:
(12-10-2013, 08:44 PM)streamingeagle88 Wrote:
(12-10-2013, 06:27 PM)mikesioc Wrote:
(12-10-2013, 08:00 AM)Palm Wrote:
(12-10-2013, 07:49 AM)mikesioc Wrote: At these valuations Total and Oil Search must be discussing a buyout and IOC may be the "golden goose in the cage" alluded to in a previous post. The price that would get it done may depend on where Chandler and Paulsen are made whole plus a little bonus. Guessing the institutional shareholders that remain and any new longs would seriously consider a nice round number like $100 that is now being thrown around. It could get done rather quickly, with no one to put up much resistance they would essentially be negotiating with themselves and no one loses money. A Total led consortium could get the whole enchilada for the same top end price as 42.5% of PRL 15 that Total was already prepared to pay by themselves. All IMHO but just sayin'.
"must be discussing a buyout"; Quite a reach with that as well as what Chandler and others might accept. No way of guessing what they might accept. Since we are guessing, I'd guess especially Chandler is looking for more than $100, just because "it's a nice round number".
You are correct. Guess was the wrong word. It was an opinion that Total may now be in a position to buy IOC. If Total can bid for the entire company for an amount within the range that they may have to fork over to own 47.5% of PRL 15 it should be on their mind. $110 is $5.3 billion which we know is certainly within their reach. If it's being discussed on SHU it is well within reason that it has occurred to someone at Total. How many longs expected last Thursday we would be at $60 after a deal announcement? A logical answer is not Chandler or Paulson or any of the mutual funds, all of whom are likely in the process of adjusting their expectations while they catch their breath. I don't know what Chandler or any other major holder would accept but 14 million shares have changed hands the last two days at or below $60. At what price are those buyers willing to sell? $101, $121, $131? Any of those figures are a very handsome return for a short term investment. I have been a patient long for years and have followed the bouncing ball closely. I have seen many long term projections and believe Hession is on the right track but it is no great leap that last Friday put the company within reach for a Total led consortium if they are so inclined. The window may close quickly but the opening is there, IMHO.
Right on. I couldn't agree more. The more I ruminate on the IOC shareholders conundrum the more a bid seems inevitable. And Shell might choose to fuel a fire that could light up the Paris sky.
Wonder who dials first: Duma, Chandler, Paulson or Total or even Shell. This long running morning soap can't go on forever. The players become too old and haggard.
With incredulity I ask: Is now the time it finally ends?
If I am being completely honest I hope so. Even though I believe Tilson is delusional regarding his resource figures and he is corrupt in his campaign against IOC the fact remains that we are trading at $59 after the transformational deal we have been waiting for all these years. The answer to the conumdrum seems clear if a reasonable offer is made and it would only take a booth at Ruth Chris to have enough shareholders to approve a deal. If we are on the right track let's hope RDS drives up the price. GLTA.
Truth is we are at $59 after a partial transformational deal that is still being finalized. We don't know yet who the possible strategic partner(s) might end up being. We don't know yet how the IPI investors will be compensated (this is still in process and I don't think it it has to be assumed that they will be compensated with a 100% share issuance; more on that later), and we don't know what the JVOA looks like yet (very possibly because of any possible strategic partner(s) to be brought in). For instance will the JVOA include a CSP much sooner than at the time when the LNG plant is commissioned? Still several very big factors to be finalized yet before we can say we have THE "transformational deal". The most reasonable skeptics are using the most conservative assumptions and that's why we are where we are. However, let's see where things end up and the lady with the big appetite serenades us.
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'ltinvest' pid='33737' datel Wrote:Mike, it has always made too much sense to me that for similiar $$$, Total or someone else could buy all of IOC and keep the exploration upside. I'd be disappointed in $100 considering the drilling that's to take place over the next couple of years. However, for the same reason, if I'm an acquirer, now is the time to buy out Interoil. Even at $120, there seems to be massive upside if E/A certifies at GLJ numbers and just one additional prospect becomes another E/A type resource.
Yes, $100 would be disappointing using expectations and valuation before last Friday. Now reality has put us at $58 with the same maniuplation and short attacks. IMHO anything at or above $120 would get it done quickly. At least it should. What would $120 be worth by first cargo in 2020? 10% annualized is 2X or $240 (4X current PPS) and is a reasonable discount rate. Until Total makes its first payment in 1Q14 this could get very interesting.
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