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InterOil, a game changer

April 7th, 2009 · 2 Comments

More and more, we’ve become convinced this is a screaming buy..

With the downside risk limited due to the refinery, retail business, not to mention the gas and liquids reserves, the sheer competitiveness of these (three wells in a low cost environment already enough to supply an LNG facility), and the 4.6 million acres full of other opportunities we really think the risk/reward ratio has never been better.

There are numerous and serious potential game changing events possible in the near future:

  • Further significant reserve upgrades
  • Finalizing condensate winning investment plans
  • Several possible deals on farm out drilling opportunities, strategic investors, long-term supply arrangements, and the like. InterOil has hired two banks to assist with the negotiations
  • More analyst coverage now that they have a capital markets director and a NYSE listing

And, the new kid on the block is the possibility of an oil leg. The details are still very sketchy, it’s not a dead certainty, but we belief the odds have now increased considerably, and we mean considerably, for a commercially viable oil leg.

That really would be a game changer. Together, the oil and condensates could de-risk the LNG project to such an extent that one could consider that almost a done deal, and on InterOil’s terms. It will greatly reduce the financing needs, and any dependence on third party financing. It would dramatically increase cash-flow.

All of a sudden, we could have the makings of a new, completely integrated energy play here, being the master of it’s own destiny, and due to the excellent well deliverabilities and low cost environment, producing very fat margins indeed.

We’ve written some more details recently, which you can find here and especially here, but we would say that this company just has a screaming buy written all over it. And in our view, a serious lift-off could be imminent.

We think that if you’re not in, the pull back that might last another couple of days provides what with hindsight could be the last station before the train takes off.

Tags: IOC

2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 rory mcgowan // Apr 7, 2009 at 9:53 pm

    I’m happy to hear your so positive. Your contacts seem pretty happy with the testing equipment.. I’m sure happy that Weatherford or SLB is there doing the testing. And Phil said the quality of the Measuring devices are top notch. Does this put off the sale or deals until ant-2 gets done?

  • 2 Jim Tate // Apr 7, 2009 at 10:16 pm

    An oil find changes everything, instantaneous cash flow.IOC I would think would sell off less and finance most of the plant themselves . They would still get help from a strategic. The stock would react very positively to oil. Double maybe.