Trade tensions are escalating between the US and China, and Trump argues that the US can’t lose. The Chinese economy is vulnerable at the moment, plagued by large debts which authorities are attempting to reign in and a worsening emerging market climate. The US government might be tempted to think that, given this weakness, China […]
Entries Tagged as 'China'
July 6th, 2018 · Comments Off on Can China Withstand A Trade War?
July 2nd, 2018 · Comments Off on The Chinese Strikeback
The US President thinks the US can easily win a trade war with China as they export much more to the US than vice versa. While that is true, retaliatory tariffs are hardly the only way the Chinese can strike back, we describe four alternatives. Some of these could have significant consequences for specific US […]
April 22nd, 2018 · Comments Off on Chinese Tech Increasingly A Match For U.S. Big Tech. Should We Worry?
The rise of Chinese high-tech companies has produced the specter of Chinese domination of the industries of the future. While it is true that many high-tech Chinese companies have caught up with their US counterparts, any domination is far from a given. And there is actually much less to fear. While companies compete with one […]
January 18th, 2017 · Comments Off on China Throws A Wrench In The Dollar Bull Run
The market overwhelmingly assumes a continuation of a dollar bull-run. And there are indeed sound reasons for that. However, on closer inspection, the rationale might be less solid than meets the eye, and there is ample room for surprises. China Throws A Wrench In The Dollar Bull Run
January 2nd, 2017 · Comments Off on Trump Vs. China, Round One
Since China is considerably more dependent upon the US market, at first sight, it looks like the US is in a strong position versus China to deal with trade frictions. However, there is an obvious way China can hit back on any US-imposed import tariffs, stop defending its currency and let it float. In the […]
December 26th, 2016 · Comments Off on When Will China’s Debt Problem Detonate?
Chinese debt, particularly its corporate debt, has been rising explosively and now stands at unprecedented levels according to basically any metric. The magnitude is such that many expect some kind of crash. While that can’t be excluded, particularities of the Chinese financial system provide some safeguards against that happening. What is more likely is that […]
December 14th, 2016 · Comments Off on China Just Blew Through A Quarter Of Its Foreign Currency Reserves
December 11th, 2016 · Comments Off on China Devaluing Itself Out Of Trouble
November 3rd, 2016 · Comments Off on Is A Chinese Depreciation Still A Threat To Global Markets?
July 10th, 2016 · Comments Off on Dual Risk Out Of China
The largely state-owned industrial sector is plagued by overcapacity, large debt, deflation and declining credit quality. The Chinese authorities have three ways of dealing with this, restructuring, devaluation, or stimulus. They seem to have chosen the path of least resistance; while this is good news in the very short run, it only increases the risks […]