Could Inflation Yet Take Off?
Central bankers don’t have a good grasp on inflation, or better, the lack of it. While not as dramatic as then, but some warned in 2010 that QE would be […]
Is The Market Held At 1929 Valuations By The Prospect Of Tax Cuts?
According to Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, the market is at least in part held at 1929 valuations by the prospects of significant tax cuts. If Shiller is right, this is […]
‘Ice Age’ Bear Claims He Was Too Optimistic
After temporarily suspending his deflationary expectations, perma-bear Albert Edwards is back to his old ways, predicting a deflationary wave for the US economy. The bad news is, if he’s right, […]
And Now For Those Tax Cuts
The administration is arguing it’s now focused on tax reform, a major driver of the post-election rally in stocks. It would indeed be beneficial for stocks, but so far we […]
Back To The Trump Reflation Rally?
With the departure of Bannon, most of the economic agenda seems to be of a traditional Republican one, which the markets applaud. Indeed, the economic nationalism of the likes of […]
Could The Fed End The Stock Rally?
The Fed could trigger a recession and a considerable stock market selloff if it tightens too much. We doubt there is much need for that given the fact that inflation […]
Populism, Trade And The Markets
Much of our prosperity in general and shareholder returns in particular depend on the global economic order of relatively free trade and capital flows. That order has been singled out […]
Volatility To Return?
After a period of unusual calm, markets are getting a little more volatile. We think such volatility was always going to come, given the long period of unusual stability. This […]
Cash Is Piling Up In The Corporate Sector
The corporate world, especially the biggest firms, are enjoying record profits and cash balances in the developed world. Whilst they have been saving more, they have invested less which has […]
The Political Risk To Stocks
The US economy generates a lot of wealth but a large majority isn’t sharing in it. This has already led to one political semi-revolt. But what will happen if that […]