The Fed Risks Tanking The Economy
The Fed is embarking on an almost Volcker-style campaign to slain inflation once and for all, but we think they are overdoing it and risk a hard landing. Inflation was […]
The Fed Wasn’t Responsible For Surge In Inflation, But Is Likely To Create Recession
No matter how extravagant monetary policy is, as long as it doesn’t produce a credit boom, it doesn’t increase the money supply and hence inflationary pressures except in asset prices. […]
The Fed Is Irrelevant
With the US 10-year yield well below the Fed Funds rate, there are good arguments for lower interest rates. On the other hand, with rates and unemployment already very low, […]
A Looming Disconnect Between The Economy And Financial Markets
The Fed is mostly focused on conditions in the real economy, loosening policy when growth slows and tightening when the economy grows too hot. It only takes on board financial […]
The Fed Hasn’t Blown Another Asset Bubble
Investors feel whiplashed by the Fed, but while this is understandable, this isn’t necessarily justified as financial markets are a bit of a side show for the Fed. The Fed […]
The Fed’s America First Policy
It is difficult to argue that monetary policy is too tight for the US economy, and financial data back that judgement up. However, the Fed often has a pronounced influence […]
Fed Hysteria Out In Full Force Once Again
From the President downwards, much of the financial community is up in arms over the latest Fed policy change. While the Fed in general, or the particular policy changes and […]
Bring On The Powell Put
From the President down, with markets bleeding, market observers are clamoring for the Fed to lower rates – or at least not raise them further. There are some economists, like […]
Will The Expansion End With A Fizzle Or A Bang?
The Fed could very well raise rates because they fear the prospect of higher inflation and imploding asset bubbles bringing down the economy. So if they act, the economy goes […]
Could The Fed End The Stock Rally?
The Fed could trigger a recession and a considerable stock market selloff if it tightens too much. We doubt there is much need for that given the fact that inflation […]