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There is a discussion going on in the media about whether, and if yes to what extent, the current boom in commodities (both soft and hard, that is, raw materials and grains), is driven by speculation. Once again, a bit of simple economics goes a long way in explaining.

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Trina Solar first. This now looks like breaking support levels. It’s entirely sectoral, and as we reported the last couple of days, suddenly the sector is snuggling up to oil prices. So another drop in oil, another drop in the solars. Any reason for a sell-off.

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Yeah, we’re kind of sorry. Bear with us for a moment. The last few days, we have noticed a sell-off in solars (which in our view is not really warranted by fundamentals), and we also warned you that Trina was at support levels. Now, we have good and bad news.

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This remains a very curious story. Some points.

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We have discussed how the Fed and the Chinese central bank fared in the new climate with a more muted business cycle but much more economic instability coming from the asset markets. We haven’t yet mentioned a central bank which has perhaps done the best job of keeping monetary stability, despite being hampered on more [...]

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We haven’t written about it for some time. We advised you to buy at $20, it had a nice run up, but now it’s running down again and we’re approaching that $20 level. Tomorrow, earnings will come out and we will get a lot more clarity. Here is the graph:

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What we feared seems to be happening at the moment. There is an ongoing sell-off in the solar sector which, from a fundamental point, doesn’t make sense. Quite the contrary, as results in the sector have been good to stellar. Get used to it. 

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Well, we’re almost there, that 200 day moving average again..  Here is the chart: It needs to hold. 

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The high energy prices are a wonderful thing. We needed to get off oil for numerous reasons, since politics can’t do it, especially in the US, how about a great dollup of market mechanism. This, in fact, is exactly what is happening.

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We give a summary of what we see as the most important consequences of the coming wave of polysilicon hitting the market, which will reverberate through the whole industry and will greatly help the sector competing with traditional sources of electricity production. We also try to say something about the timing.

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