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Sell-off at InterOil

January 27th, 2010 · 5 Comments

What’s going on?

We asked around and could not ascertain any impending bad news. The gas is still there, the liquids are still there, there is still a good chance InterOil can get the oil flowing. We think this market is being manipulated at the moment:

  1. Mothley Fools published a “report” based on Barry Minkow’s “analysis”
  2. You might wanna check what is real about Barry Minkow’s analysis. Not much
  3. InterOil just hired a highly experienced guy from Marathon to manage their LNG division
  4. That “report” was apparently send to many hedge funds

Add to that a general market that is moving away from more riskier assets and hey presto, you have a sell-off. Mothley Fool has been very questionable before. In the meantime, this might last a little until we get some news from InterOil. So it’s basically an orchestrated short attack but the value proposition of InterOil hasn’t changed one single bit.

We believe:

  1. The deal with Mitsui on a liquids stripping plant within reach
  2. There is a good (but not 100%) chance on getting the oil flowing at Antelope2
  3. The shorts will have to cover some time. Will they get a better chance? We would be very surprised if they really believe their own writings, to be honest. And there are signs they don’t (and here)

But until we get clarity, the market will be the market. Add if you have the stomach to go through these swings. We don’t see any reason to sell now.

Tags: IOC

5 responses so far ↓

  • 1 NW // Jan 27, 2010 at 9:48 pm

    I have an Iron Stomach like a riverboat gambler. Any day the results on the oil will be released, and you better hope your in the stock once the news is released.

    Go LONGS

  • 2 kencooksam // Jan 27, 2010 at 9:51 pm

    You B the man.. Excellent stuff

  • 3 Darcy Patten // Jan 28, 2010 at 7:05 am

    Quick due diligence check to make sure nothing is broke in the machine:

    * – Verify that Antelope/Elk resource totals haven’t changed – Check
    * – Verify that the PNG gov hasn’t nullified the LNG contract with IOC – Check
    * – Verify that IOC refinery has still been profitable 5 of the last 6 quarters – Check
    * – Verify that IOC forward plans via MS report from Jan 11th – Check
    * – Review the Petromin leaked articles about Mitsui and oil – Check
    * – Verify that Godzilla is running rampant on PNG – Check

    Hmphh, appears as though the train hasn’t come off the tracks as some would suggest and that my 3-5 year hold still looks good. Yaaaawwwwnnn, just another day at the office.

  • 4 ron // Jan 28, 2010 at 7:13 am

    Great post. A calm reasoned analysis for the faint hearted.

  • 5 Sell-off in InterOil part II — shareholdersunite.com // Jan 28, 2010 at 7:23 pm

    […] ron: Great post. A calm reasoned an […]