On this page we will provide a handy one-stop-shop for external links containing information about InterOil. We will be regularly updating it so come back to see whether there are new links.
If you feel you have an interesting link to add, please do not hesitate! Everybody would benefit. Mail us: firstname.lastname@example.org
- ALL research reports on InterOil (starting with the latests)
- To keep in mind while reading the Monness reports
- The new GLJ resource update
- And how they may increase
- Petro engeneer’s take on the GLJ report
- Part II
- Part III
- Part IV
- Part V
- Part VI
- Someone noting the importance of Part VI
- Part VII
- The latest MS update ($120 target)
- InterOil embarked on FEED
- InterOil MOU with Mitsui
- Petromin deal with Japex
- Aldorf interview jan2010
- Aldorf at the LNG conference in Singapore April 20 2010
- PNG province embarking on infrastructure investment for IOC’s projects Feb2010
- PNG province part II Feb2010
- Earlier useful links
Interested parties in the news
- A summary part I including Petronet (India) CNOOC (China) ENI (Italy) PTT (Thailand), talks with 30 interested parties
- Summary part II including Petrochina and CNOOC (China), Petromin participation (PNG)
- Part III
- Part V
- Part VI
- Part VII
- Part VIII
- RJ email: 50 interested parties
- CNOOC deal with PNG government
- RJ interpretation
- Oil Majors need to buy reserves
- PetroChina’s $60B foreign energy resources acquisition kitty
China LNG demand
- China’s oil demand increase astonishing according to IEA [March 12 2010]
- Despite 2008 economic crisis, demand for gas was up 16% in China (and 2.5% in the world as a whole)
- China’s gas use is only 3% of it’s energy consumption, globally the figure is 25%
- Bloomberg China NG demand staggering
- China, the world’s second-largest energy user, is building more than 10 LNG terminals on its eastern coast to meet a target of doubling the use of gas as an alternative to coal.
- China gas shortage, set to increase LNG import
- LNG imports from China and India set to seven-fold
- Chinese imports of LNG hit near record highs in January, almost quadrupling last January’s imports
- CNOOC to double LNG imports by 2020 [April 26 2010]
- A list of China’s recent foreign energy purchases
- Part II
- Part III
- Part IV
Natural Gas stories
- Good overview
- Bloomberg. Malaysia to import NG
- Indonesia LNG output decline
- Indonesia will divert fuel to fertilizer makers. The Bontang plant in the Kalimantan region will produce about 320 cargoes this year, lagging behind its contracted volume of 350, Daniel Purba, head of LNG market development at PT Pertamina, said in May. The plant can produce about 400 a year, he said. A cargo is typically 50,000 to 60,000 tons. Pertamina, Indonesia’s state oil company, will cut supplies to a group in Japan by 75 percent after its contract expires in 2010, Vice President Iin Arifin Takhyan said in October.
- Asia’s premium LNG market
- Gorgon long-term offtake contract at $16.72 per Mcf
- There remains a shortfall in LNG supply into the Asia Pacific region commencing in 2012 – 2014
- LNG demand set to double by 2020
- “And that will take the LNG price with it, because that is determined according to a complex formula based on the lagging oil price.”
The links (earlier version)
The best place to start is, of course, IOC’s website. There is a wealth of material about it’s drilling licenses, technical presentations, annual reports, quarterly financial statements, investor presentations, drilling reports, and news releases, and a host more.
Information about holdings : institutional holdings and mutual funds holding, and those with a 5% stake or more. The latter link will show that CEO Phil Mulacek owns nearly 7M IOC shares, and Industry legend T Boone Pickens has close to 3M shares. SEC filings about changes in ownership you can find here. Another source for insider selling/buying. T Boone Pickens taking a 9.9% stake in August 2007.
If your broker doesn’t provide level II and times and sales data, you can find it here (although 15m delay).
Not many analyst follow IOC, the most well known is Wayne Andrews, Vice President of Equity Research at Raymond James . Raymond James, unique for analyst who are almost universally distrusted, was listed 11 on the Forbes list of most trusted companies. A short bio about Wayne Andrews (you have to scroll down a little), he has a masters in geology and is a senior energy analyst.
Wayne Andrews has $65 price target on IOC but unfortunately, RayJay’s research reports on IOC are not in the public domain, but one can still read parts of it in several places. On our own website, we’ve quoted his reports at large, for instance, his valuation method , or on the Elk property . Other snippets which are authentic you can find here here and here.
Another analyst who has written an interesting analysis on IOC is Joseph R. Dancy , Adjunct Professor of Energy Law at Southern Methodist University and fund manager of the LSGI Technology Venture Fund L.P. He was also enthusiastic about a presentation given by Phil Mulacek after Elk2 drilling finished. He also writes other interesting stuff about energy markets.
There are two new analyst, reports are not in the public domain, but we’ve got summaries for you:
- Nataxis Bleichroeder
- Monness Crespi Hardt & Co.
- We post updates from Raymond James regularly in our blog entries
- Raymond James on the 86MMcf/d Elk4 results (later increased to 105MMcf/d)
- Forbes put it in it’s top 10 cheap energy plays for 2008.
Elk1 was the big well that IOC discovered two years ago. It has very high gas pressures. Some sources from IOC, here here and here (three technical presentations), the last drilling report (a little shorter). A local newspaper story , and our own write-up , which quotes extensively from Raymond James and Dancy .
Elk2 if you read one article about Elk2 this should be it. One has to register for the cite, so we republished it integrally, with some conclusions. We had an earlier write-up on the Elk property where you can find what Wayne Andrews from Raymond James, the only analyst following IOC, had to say about it. Of course, the IOC website has a host of technical presentations.
Elk4 you can find in the drilling updates on the IOC website. Wayne Andrews from Raymond James assessed the progress. Once again, his reports are not in the public domain, but snippets can be found on the boards. This message also shows upcoming catalists here as well. Somtimes (way too little, if you ask us), the geology is actually discussed by people with relevant background, like this one or this discussion.
InterOil holds a five licenses that together comprise almost 9M acres. Read the Dancy report for a perspective about the size and characteristics (a nice list there), and some history. InterOil’s website also provides an extensive description. A short description of the history and how Exxon was not interested is from the boards. We also wrote about this ourselves, also containing the Dancy list of necessary characteristics for finding hydrocarbons.
We reposted a copy of a very good primer on the economics of LNG markets There are a host of reports testifying to the scarcity of LNG, especially in Asia. Dancy wrote about how increasing price and new technology completely turned around the LNG market and old gasfields and concessions alike. Other sources: Bloomberg The Market Traders and The Resource Investor another The Resource Investor article. There is a really good large WSJ article about the urgent shortage in Asia (we quoted from it), but a subscription is required now.
- We’ve assembled a page with a number of very good background stories on LNG’s scarcity, especially in Asia
- A natural gas cartel in the making
LNG plans in PNG
A LNG project can be built with as little as 1.5Tcf of reserves, Maraton did it. LNG facility presentation 2007 from Liquid Niugini, the consortium formed by IOC, Merrill Lynch, and Clarion Finanz. Here the original contract, and a newspaper article about it.
- Here are three other good newspaper articles discussing the LNG plans
- A couple of articles about the huge impact on the refinery and PNG economy of the LNG projects (and other big mining projects)
Here are explanations of shorting and naked shorting. From the SEC , with a (rather long) frequently asked questions list, and another winding one on interpretation . If you want something more succinct, accessible, then there is even an instructive video , and a good, much shorter explanation . A very good one is also the one from one of it’s most notorious victims .
Bashers are usually working for short parties, getting money for divulging dodgy info that is meant to disinform or confuse. Here is the complete ‘handbook ‘. Here, a heart-wrenching confession by a perpetrader, and a particularly brutal deconstruction of the posting behaviour of one of them (from the Yahoo IOC message board) also containing lessons on how to recognize them (go to their posting history is the first crucial step, it seems to us).
The shorts can sometimes even plant stories in the press. A notorious one from a freelance journalist writing in the International Herald Tribune , and it’s rather thorough rebuttal which really makes it clear why this can only have been written on instigation of the shorts. There is another one, but it has been wiped of the boards, it appeared in a Canadian newspaper but one needs a subscription to read it’s archives. Here is an analysis of it nevertheless, you’ll get the picture.
Some IOC bashers: