Interesting graph in there, natural gas by far the biggest contribution to new electricity generation, but also significant role for renewables…
Renewable Energy Could Contribute to U.S. Electricity Needs, Yet Challenges Remain
Rebecca Alania and Luwam Yeibio, June 15, 2009 (News from the National Academies)
SUMMARY
Electricity From Renewables: Status, Prospectus and Impediments, from the America’s Energy Future Panel on Electricity from Renewable Resources of the National Research Council, breaks little new ground but concludes with great scientific authority that New Energy, now only 2.5% of the power mix and long bypassed for more energy-dense sources, could meet up to 10% of U.S. electricity demand by 2020 and 20% or more by 2035.
This decisively contradicts a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA) that concluded New Energy will only meet 8% of U.S. 2030 power demand.
The National Research Council scientists explain how to get past the BAU scenario and why it is a good idea. (The Research Council is the principal operating agency of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering.)
They begin with an example of the scale of new manufacturing, employment, investment, and installation they are proposing: The DOE projections by which wind energy would provide 20% of U.S. electricity by 2030 included (1) the manufacture 100,000 wind turbines, (2) $100 billion of additional capital investment and transmission upgrades, and (3) employees to fill 140,000 jobs.
DOE’s EIA sees New Energy advancing in the next 2 decades. (click to enlarge)
To transform New Energy’s potential into the U.S.’s dominant power generation source, major scientific advances and changes to the way the nation generates, transmits, and uses electricity will be necessary.
It must begin with increased deployment of present technologies.
Enhanced technologies to cut costs, increase efficiencies and solve the problems of large-scale and distributed electricity storage must follow.
And there must be large scale financial investment, especially in transmission. There must be development of intelligent, two-way electric grids and significantly enhanced, yet cost-effective, long-distance electricity transmission.
These things will require implementation of policies to drive increased use of New Energy including long-term and consistent policies that encourage investment, such as the investment tax credit (ITC) and the production tax credit (PTC), as well as spending for research and development (R&D) as well as policies that give developers access to capital.
DOE’s EIA sees New Energy advancing in the next 2 decades. (click to enlarge)
The payoff will be in the growth of manufacturing and installation technologies, offering significant employment and economic opportunities. There will also be a huge step forward in emissions-free energy that redirects energy spending to domestic sources while minimizing the use of water and water contamination.
Problems that can be anticipated include compromises of land use and other local impacts (wind turbine noise, desert-invasion by solar power plants, some compromise of public spaces by geothermal plants and some interference with coastal activities by hydrokinetic devices). These things will become increasingly common as deployment grows.
Challenges and Opportunities Ahead:
New Energy resources are virtually untapped. Turning to them to cut energy imports and interrupt dependence on fossil fuels will require major changes but address important challenges.
New Energy sources are less concentrated than fossil fuel or nuclear power. Electricity system operators must deal with spatial and temporal constraints to integrating New Energy-generated electricity into the transmission system while ensuring reliability and stability of supply.
DOE’s EIA sees New Energy advancing in the next 2 decades. (click to enlarge)
Large deployment also will result in new, potentially controversial land uses, including the siting of generation and transmission facilities.
Many types of New Energy technologies can be developed and deployed as smaller power plants over more dispersed terrain. They can also be constructed more quickly than large-scale fossil or nuclear generation, allowing a faster return on expensive capital investments.
Most importantly, New Energy reduces vulnerability to the vagaries of fossil fuel prices and eliminates their environmental impacts.
Distributed New Energy generation at or near the point of use, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) rooftop and small wind systems at residential, commercial, or industrial sites, can offer operational and economic benefits beyond the reach of traditional centralized power generation.
The America’s Energy Future project overseeing this study is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, BP America, Dow Chemical Company Foundation, Fred Kavli and the Kavli Foundation, GE Energy, General Motors Corp., Intel Corp., and the W.M. Keck Foundation. Support also came from the National Academies through endowed funds created to perpetually support the work of the National Research Council
