This is what they just published
Evan Calio – Morgan Stanley
April 6, 2011 4:16 PM GMT
This Research Tactical Idea is closed. The near term catalysts have passed. We still believe longer term catalysts remain: 1) FLNG monetization deal, 2) strategic sell down (1-2.5% of Elk Antelope), 3) spud of Bwata/Wolverine exploration wells and 4) FID on Mitsui and EWC.
Effective immediately, the Tactical Idea published on InterOil Corporation (IOC.N) on March 16, 2011 has been discontinued and should no longer be relied upon.
Now, on March 16, they published this:
InterOil Corporation (IOC.N)
Research Tactical Idea
We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days.
We believe that IOC has several potential catalysts that will occur in the next 60 days and will improve credibility and de-risk the significant value of the resource. We expected these catalysts in late 4Q10 and believe the lack of news has negatively impacted YTD stock performance. Catalysts that we expect in the next 30 days include: (1) moderately higher 2010YE resource assessment and (2) clarity of LNG financing by partner EWC. Potential additional catalysts over the 60 days could include: (1) an FLNG monetization deal, (2) a strategic asset sell-down (1-2.5% of Elk Antelope), (3) spud of next exploration well, (4) a gas off-take agreement, or (5) FID on Mitsui and EWC by 6/30 (maybe earlier). Recent Japanese nuclear accident also highlights demand for LNG.
We estimate that there is about an 80%+ or “highly likely” probability for the scenario. Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on our assessment of the likelihood of the scenario.
Stock Rating: Overweight
Industry View: Attractive
So the difference is
- the clarity over the EWC financing, they don’t expect that before April 16, apparently.
- They don’t expect a gas-offtake agreement before May 16, apparently.