Misplaced Market Euphoria
There is still a lot we don’t know about the spread of the coronavirus, and with that, the economic impact of the measures aimed to contain it. With large parts […]
Argentinian Shares Are Very Cheap, But Big Risks Remain
A dire economic situation with a shrinking economy and serious inflation was already buffeting the Argentinian stock market, but this became dramatic after a surprise election loss of the government. […]
Tariff Man Strikes Again
There are compelling reasons to assume that the U.S. goals in the trade dispute with China go way beyond just trade. The real goal is likely to slow the economic […]
The Fed Hasn’t Blown Another Asset Bubble
Investors feel whiplashed by the Fed, but while this is understandable, this isn’t necessarily justified as financial markets are a bit of a side show for the Fed. The Fed […]
What Trade War Are We Having Will Determine What Happens To The Markets
Either President Trump wants to be able to announce a victory, or we are witnessing the first innings of a hegemonic clash between the existing and rising superpower. If the […]
Fed Hysteria Out In Full Force Once Again
From the President downwards, much of the financial community is up in arms over the latest Fed policy change. While the Fed in general, or the particular policy changes and […]
Reasons For Cautious Optimism
Many shares are already down 40%-50% off their (arguably lofty) highs in short order. We see reasons for Fed moderation, a possibility for a trade truce between the US and […]
Should The Fed Regulate Asset Prices?
The idea might seem crazy at first, but it follows logically from a model in which beliefs about future asset prices (‘animal spirits’) have real effects on output and employment. […]
When Will The Rot Stop?
Cramer has come up with 10 criteria that have to be fulfilled before the markets can find a bottom. While useful, we think these criteria focus too much on the […]
Peak Economy, Peak Earnings
The tax cuts produced a boom in economic growth, but the effects look set to peter out. The tax cuts also unleashed some headwinds that could gather force, like rising […]