The Market Is Not Done Selling
The situation on the ground in Italy is deteriorating fast, with growth coming to a complete halt. The debt/GDP ratio will rise further as a result of the expansionary budget. […]
The U.S. Is Ignoring The Progress China Has Made
China has a reputation for being a currency manipulator, having mercantilist trade practices, glaring disrespect for IP and depending on exports for growth. While these things were all true in […]
Investors Keep Ignoring The Trade War
For now, it has paid off buying the dips induced by increasing trade tensions. But as the economic damage of every new round of escalation increases, one can’t count on […]
A New Argentinean Default?
While the Macri government was dealt a very bad hand in terms of the economic situation they inherited, a large debt is not one of these. In a time span […]
What Does The U.S. Want From China?
The US government wants the Chinese to respect US intellectual property and a lower bilateral trade deficit. Unleashing a trade war isn’t likely to bring these goals closer, in fact […]
A Hot Autumn For Stocks
We see five serious dangers to markets, and each of these could strike pretty soon. A trade escalation, the first innings of what could be a more general emerging market […]
Start Crying For Argentina
Argentina’s public spending spree is finally catching up with the country. By liberalizing the capital account before taking care of the fiscal and current account deficits, the present government has […]
A Very Familiar Crisis
Turkey is suffering from a classic emerging market crisis caused by gorging on dollar denominated debt. The backdrop environment is worsening, with higher US interest rates and a higher dollar. […]
Crisis In China?
The Chinese economy is already slowing down, its stock market is crashing, its currency sinking and authorities are cracking down on leverage. And on top of that the US has […]
Why The Stock Market Hasn’t Buckled Under The Trade Tensions
After some wobbles when trade tensions hit the headlines, the markets seem to have regained their footing. For some, this seems odd, given the all to real potential for a […]