Macro Lessons For Investors
Macro forces are impacting financial markets continuously; investors do well getting to grips with the basics. However, there are wildly different views about how the economy works, and the debate […]
Have We Seen The Highs For The Year Already?
If trade tensions escalate, it could tip the world economy, which is already softening into substantially lower growth. Apart from the direct effects of trade restrictions, greater uncertainty, diminished sentiment […]
Risks Are Increasing
Market risks are increasing with a more assertive President, less constrained by mainstream advisers repositioning into a more populist and neo-conservative direction. The more immediate worry are the chances of […]
No Reason To Panic
But panic there was, with the VIX rising from the dead all the way to 35. A reassuring sign is that bonds, which arguably started the market mayhem, functioned as […]
An Overheating U.S. Economy?
Fiscal policy has thrown fire on what is already a very prolonged economic upturn. With capacity tight and structural growth restrained, there are some signs of a possible overheating of […]
Just What The Doctor Ordered
Two years ago, the world economy looked downright scary, with secular stagnation ravaging much of the developed world, stagnant wages, low productivity growth and various serious crisis spots. But growth […]
Rising U.S. Risk Premium?
Contrary to the expectation of many pundits, the dollar has softened considerably. We explain why this is surprising and discuss one proposed theory in an attempt to explain this, looking […]
A Trump Effect?
Apart from business sentiment and the stock market, hard data does not display a decisive acceleration in the economy. But it’s early days and the tax cuts have yet to […]
Which Is A Bigger Threat For Stocks, Bonds Or The The Dollar?
According to many experienced commentators, the decades-long bond rally is coming to an end, or has already done so. Normally, a bond selloff would be bad for stocks, but there […]
The Tide Is Turning
The world economy is experiencing a synchronized upturn, but the main areas are already tightening monetary policy, or about to do so. This will reduce world liquidity and provide a […]