Populism, Trade And The Markets
Much of our prosperity in general and shareholder returns in particular depend on the global economic order of relatively free trade and capital flows. That order has been singled out […]
Volatility To Return?
After a period of unusual calm, markets are getting a little more volatile. We think such volatility was always going to come, given the long period of unusual stability. This […]
Cash Is Piling Up In The Corporate Sector
The corporate world, especially the biggest firms, are enjoying record profits and cash balances in the developed world. Whilst they have been saving more, they have invested less which has […]
The Political Risk To Stocks
The US economy generates a lot of wealth but a large majority isn’t sharing in it. This has already led to one political semi-revolt. But what will happen if that […]
Is This A Bubble?
Stocks are expensive, but in and of itself, this isn’t necessarily a problem. As long as bond yields stay benign and there is no recession or other dramatic economic event, […]
Bond market’s recession warning is at odds with stock market near record highs
Stocks are near record highs, driven by surging tech shares, a sharp contrast with the bond market, where interest rates have been sinking on worries the economy just isn’t getting […]
Dow 40,000!
A pundit argues that the S&P can double in five years, or sooner; we kick the tires of the reasoning behind this. One part of the argument seems actually reasonable […]
What Will Keep The Rally Going?
The market rally has stalled on diminished outlook for a Trump reflation and a surprising softening in US economic data. It’s understandable, given the length of the rally and the […]
Market Relief: Trump Turns Out To Be A Mainstream Republican
While we still await details and legislative proposals of the big Trump reflation, markets do have something to celebrate from the White House. There is increasing data subscribing the view […]
Is This The End Of The Trump Rally?
Have we reached the end of the Trump rally, at least for now? A good deal will depend on whether Trumpcare will pass the House on Thursday, as that will […]