Goldilocks Once More?
With the rate rise, both the stock market and the bond market rallied. Both markets seem to believe that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation won’t be […]
Melt Up… What Is Really Driving The Epic Stock Rally?
The dominant opinion about what has caused the stock market rally is that it is expectations of a Trump reflationary package. But such package is likely to be a year […]
Demand Trumps Supply
Can Trump significantly lift the growth of the US economy? Trump’s reflationary efforts are likely to run into supply constraints, given by a tight labor market, low productivity growth and […]
Shares Expect Too Much From A Trump Reflation Already
The Trump reflation package is liable to disappoint in terms of reviving business investment and growth. It is also liable to create a hole in public finances, and likely remedies […]
Trade The Trump Popularity Index
There seem to be two Trump’s, one that’s good for markets and one that’s bad for markets. Investors find it difficult to make sense of this which is adding to […]
The Reflation Trade Is Coming To An End
Reflation efforts in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis have been successful in keeping economies from slumping into depression, apart from some eurozone countries. But these reflation efforts have […]
The Black Swan Market
The markets have risen inexorably, despite numerous sizable market risks and already steep valuations. We seem to live in markets that price in all good news and ignore risks unless […]
Is Donald Trump Going To Spoil His Own Party?
There are two sides to Trump, one good for the markets and one that might scare the markets. We saw this phenomenon most violently on election night itself. However, we […]